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CHRIS CARPENTER HAS A 1.29 ERA AND 0.64 WHIP IN 2 CAREER WORLD SERIES STARTS.
Mon, 24 Oct 2011 05:27 PM EDT

ST LOUIS CARDINALS

at TEXAS RANGERS

World Series Game 5 – Series tied 2-2
First pitch: Monday, 8:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -120, St. Louis +110, Total: 8

The Rangers evened up the World Series behind a gem from a lefty on Sunday night, and they’re hoping for more of the same when ace C.J. Wilson takes the mound for Game 5 on Monday. Odds.

Fellow southpaw Derek Holland shut down the Cards in the 4-0 win in Game 4. But Wilson has simply not been good in the postseason. He’s 0-3 with a 7.17 ERA and 1.83 WHIP while the Rangers have lost three of his four playoff starts. On the other side, Cards starter Chris Carpenter has emerged as one of the most clutch pitchers of this postseason, including a strong outing in Game 1 of the World Series. St. Louis is 8-1 in Carpenter’s past nine starts including a perfect 4-0 mark this postseason. With Carpenter and the Cards paying off as an underdog, ST. LOUIS is the pick.

The FoxSheets provide another trend working in the Cards’ favor:

CARPENTER is 10-1 (90.9%, +10.4 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season this season. (Team’s Record). The average score was CARPENTER 3.7, OPPONENT 2.5 – (Rating = 2*). Scores.

Carpenter (11-9, 3.45 ERA in the regular season) has come up with some huge starts in the playoffs. He threw a three-hit shutout in Philadelphia in a deciding NLDS Game 5 and pitched well in World Series Game 1, holding the Rangers to a Mike Napoli two-run homer over six innings. They were the only runs he’s allowed over 14 career World Series innings. The Cards have won Carpenter’s last five and nine of his past 11 road starts. They’re also 6-3 against American League teams with Carpenter on the mound, since 2009.

Control has been an issue of late for Wilson (16-7, 2.94 ERA in the regular season). He’s walked 14 in 21.1 postseason innings, including six over 5.2 innings in a Game 1 loss at St. Louis. He’s also been shakier at home all year, posting a 3.94 ERA in Arlington in the regular season and playoffs combined (as opposed to 2.65 on the road).

Holland threw a two-hit gem on Sunday, but the Cardinals bats are still hot overall. Three of their regulars have World Series OPS’s of better than 1.000—Albert Pujols (1.264), Lance Berkman (1.033) and Allen Craig (1.017). Las Vegas odds.


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