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Matchup Reports

Thursday at 1:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO (96-70) AT CINCINNATI (99-67) 
 Starting Pitchers
TeamsLineW-LOv/Un/PRF/RAStartersRECERAWHIP
933: SAN FRANCISCO
934: CINCINNATI
7.0
-123
96-70
99-67
89-71-6
63-90-13
4.4 / 4.0
4.1 / 3.6
(R) M CAIN
(R) M LATOS
16-6
14-4
2.85
3.48
1.04
1.16
Current Weather Conditions 
Conditions: Mostly Cloudy   Temperature: 54.0 °
Humidity: 47   Wind: South at 3.5 MPH (3 KT)
 
Power Rating Line
The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated.
 Power Line
TeamPitcherEstimateEdge
SAN FRANCISCOCAIN-101 
CINCINNATILATOS +101 
Team Trends and Angles
All team trends listed below apply to the current game.
SAN FRANCISCO team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in October games3-4-0.514-10+5.638-32+6.33-410-1335-34
when playing on Thursday10-6+3.832-25+3.3156-139+5.310-628-28150-133
in day games36-31+1.993-85-3503-471-15.634-2983-87477-455
in games played on a grass field96-70+19.2285-220+36.31355-1162+101.789-71239-2451196-1197
against right-handed starters56-51-2.9192-165+2.21038-895+64.157-46171-170944-897
in playoff games2-2013-6+9.425-22+4.23-19-924-22
after a win52-42+4.4158-127+11.9768-640+64.353-39134-138670-675
when playing against a team with a winning record33-33+1.2121-113+8.9621-620+28.735-29110-117603-582
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season18-18+0.568-59+11.1324-316+27.620-1559-65312-303
in all games96-70+19.2286-222+35.21418-1220+107.389-71240-2471266-1245
when the total is 7 or less52-41+2.1149-112+13225-166+4150-39118-127180-186
as a road underdog of +100 to +12513-11+2.844-37+11169-193-415-942-37170-175
in road games48-35+16.4137-118+24.4649-670+36.451-30135-112662-597
on the road when the total is 7 or less17-13+4.848-43+4.881-74+17.220-1047-3976-71

CINCINNATI team trends
 Win/Loss recordOver/Under
 Current YearLast 3 YearsSince 1997  CurrentLast 3   Since 1997
DescriptionW-LUnitsW-LUnitsW-LUnitsO-UO-UO-U
in October games3-4-1.65-8-4.110-24-16.53-45-811-23
when playing on Thursday9-9-224-22-2.3150-142+149-725-18137-140
in day games38-20+13.496-77+7.2440-466-7.823-3074-81422-425
in games played on a grass field99-67+17.1269-223+13.71040-1119-1463-90223-232996-1037
against right-handed starters66-48+5.8185-160+2.6916-965-12.541-62156-160883-887
in playoff games2-2-0.32-5-3.42-5-3.43-14-34-3
after a loss43-23+16.5129-91+31.4652-672+1230-34110-97642-614
when playing against a team with a winning record39-31+6.495-109-13542-670-9.825-4092-94552-593
when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season15-10+3.540-53-13.5242-336-27.78-1442-42263-276
in all games99-67+17.1271-224+15.51271-1333-23.763-90223-2341216-1242
when the total is 7 or less17-13+3.328-31-2.436-58-15.812-1523-2536-43
at home with a money line of -100 to -12514-9+3.840-22+14.4168-161-16.410-733-21156-156
as a home favorite of -125 to -15019-14-0.348-43-11.7172-155-39.613-1843-42156-152
in home games50-33+4143-105+4.6655-648-85.834-41117-109639-590
at home when the total is 7 or less1-1-0.32-2-0.22-5-3.21-12-13-3
Current Season Results And Upcoming Games
Here are the most recent results and upcoming schedules for the two teams involved. Lines, total, game scores, results versus the spread, straight up and against the total are all displayed.
SAN FRANCISCO - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/27/2012ZITO(L)ARIZONACORBIN(L)7-3W-1057.5 evO1240770
9/28/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ SAN DIEGOWERNER(L)3-1W-1157 evU10102771
9/29/2012BUMGARNER(L)@ SAN DIEGOSTULTS(L)3-7L-1257 unO761950
9/30/2012LINCECUM(R)@ SAN DIEGOVOLQUEZ(R)7-5W1107.5 evO1281640
10/1/2012CAIN(R)@ LA DODGERSHARANG(R)2-3L-1107 unU650980
10/2/2012ZITO(L)@ LA DODGERSCAPUANO(L)4-3W1707.5 ovU10401071
10/3/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ LA DODGERSKERSHAW(L)1-5L1806.5 unU351840
10/6/2012CAIN(R)CINCINNATICUETO(R)2-5L-1256.5 unO7110961
10/7/2012BUMGARNER(L)CINCINNATIARROYO(R)0-9L-1457 evO2501350
10/9/2012VOGELSONG(R)@ CINCINNATIBAILEY(R)2-1W1307.5 unU340471
10/10/2012ZITO(L)@ CINCINNATILEAKE(R)8-3W1358 unO11519100
10/11/2012CAIN(R)@ CINCINNATILATOS(R) 

CINCINNATI - Schedule
 Team StatsOpp Stats
DateTeam StarterOpponentOpp StarterScoreW/LLineTot.O/UHLOBEHLOBE
9/27/2012LATOS(R)MILWAUKEEPERALTA(R)2-1W-1658 evU650550
9/28/2012BAILEY(R)@ PITTSBURGHBURNETT(R)1-0W-1157 unU741010
9/29/2012LEAKE(R)@ PITTSBURGHMCPHERSON(R)1-2L-1258.5 evU7928120
9/30/2012CUETO(R)@ PITTSBURGHRODRIGUEZ(L)4-3W-1507.5 unU1073770
10/1/2012ARROYO(R)@ ST LOUISGARCIA(L)2-4L1307.5 unU650961
10/2/2012LATOS(R)@ ST LOUISCARPENTER(R)3-1W1157 ovU870660
10/3/2012BAILEY(R)@ ST LOUISMILLER(R)0-1L-1407.5 unU350991
10/6/2012CUETO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R)5-2W1156.5 unO9617110
10/7/2012ARROYO(R)@ SAN FRANCISCOBUMGARNER(L)9-0W1357 evO1350250
10/9/2012BAILEY(R)SAN FRANCISCOVOGELSONG(R)1-2L-1407.5 unU471340
10/10/2012LEAKE(R)SAN FRANCISCOZITO(L)3-8L-1458 unO91001151
10/11/2012LATOS(R)SAN FRANCISCOCAIN(R) 
Team Statistics
Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green.
SAN FRANCISCO - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games96-70+19.289-714.40.2670.3264.00.2480.309
Road Games48-35+16.451-305.10.2700.3254.60.2600.321
vs Right-handed Starters56-51-2.957-464.30.2640.3304.10.2450.306
Past 7 Games3-4-0.43-42.70.1900.2694.10.2590.309
Grass Games96-70+19.289-714.40.2670.3264.00.2480.309
Day Games36-31+1.934-294.10.2510.3094.00.2470.312
Playoff games2-2-0.13-13.00.1800.2664.50.2460.305
SAN FRANCISCO - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.40.2670.326166568615184581070.0268549811291181196135116136130
Road Games5.10.2700.325832958798254750.033982436086458667686758
Righty Starters4.30.2640.3301073636959281570.024263577508679574727784
SAN FRANCISCO - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games3.541.324472.72141864623816440225-19531380.3%
Road Games3.831.417247124105260219021414-1129780.6%

CINCINNATI - Current Season Performance
 Team RecordsTeamOpponent
 W-LUnitsO-URunsAvgOBPRunsAvgOBP
All Games99-67+17.163-904.10.2510.3123.60.2450.300
Home Games50-33+434-414.30.2550.3213.90.2490.301
vs Right-handed Starters66-48+5.841-623.90.2490.3103.60.2440.297
Past 7 Games3-4-1.63-43.30.2190.2722.60.2120.280
Grass Games99-67+17.163-904.10.2510.3123.60.2450.300
Day Games38-20+13.423-304.40.2550.3163.70.2460.295
Playoff games2-2-0.33-14.50.2460.3053.00.1800.266
CINCINNATI - Team Hitting and Fielding Statistics
Team BattingTeam BattingTeam Fielding
 RunsAVGOBPGABHEBHR/ABRBIBBSOSBLOBGIDPERRDPOSB
All Games4.10.2510.312166561914125081760.0365349313028811631279111578
Home Games4.30.2550.3218327166922551040.043362656584357057386746
Righty Starters3.90.2490.31011438139493401110.034233398796879285617653
CINCINNATI - Bullpen Pitching Statistics
 ERAWHIPIPRERHHRBBSOW-LSVBSVPct.
All Games2.641.228452.71501333643519249432-23561776.7%
Home Games2.321.0712527465177219327820-924777.4%
Starting Pitcher Season to Date Performance
MATT CAIN recent results and season statistics
MATT CAIN - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts2.851.04316-633224.36.87671182235219721-12+4.818-15
Road Starts3.561.1788-217108.76.447439614329211-6+411-6
Last 3 Starts2.650.9411-13175.7551333121-2-1.41-2
MATT CAIN - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/6/2012CINCINNATI2-5-1256.5Loss,OverL5335214CUETO(R)
10/1/2012at LA DODGERS2-3-1107Loss,Under 5224112HARANG(R)
9/26/2012ARIZONA6-0-1556.5Win,UnderW7004016MILEY(L)

MAT LATOS recent results and season statistics
MAT LATOS - Season Statistics in Games Started
 Starter StatisticsTeam Records
 ERAWHIPW-LGIPIP/SRERHHRBBSOW-LUnitsO-U
All Starts3.481.16114-433209.36.38781179256418523-10+10.813-17
Home Starts3.181.1238-319124.76.6474410418369815-4+9.87-10
Last 3 Starts0.900.7502-03206.7221312143-0+3.20-3
MAT LATOS - Recent Starts
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/2/2012at ST LOUIS3-1+1157Win,UnderW5114014CARPENTER(R)
9/27/2012MILWAUKEE2-1-1658Win,Under 7113113PERALTA(R)
9/22/2012LA DODGERS6-0-1808Win,UnderW8006007FIFE(R)
Head-to-Head Series History
Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups.
Games over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 14-11 (+3.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
14 of 24 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+3.6 Units)
Games this season
CINCINNATI is 6-5 (+1.0 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO this season
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.8 Units)

All games at CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 7-5 (+0.7 Units) against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
8 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons . (Over=+4.0 Units)
Games played at CINCINNATI this season.
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-2 (+1.7 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.1 Units)

 Team StatsStarting Pitcher Stats
DateTeamsScoreLineTotalResultHHRSBLOBERRStarterW/LIPERHBB
10/10/2012SAN FRANCISCO8+135  113051ZITO(L) 2.7244
 CINCINNATI3-1458 unOver910100LEAKE(R)L4.3562
10/9/2012SAN FRANCISCO2+130  30040VOGELSONG(R) 5133
 CINCINNATI1-1407.5 unUnder40171BAILEY(R) 7111
10/7/2012CINCINNATI9+135  131050ARROYO(R)W7011
 SAN FRANCISCO0-1457 evOver20050BUMGARNER(L)L4.3471
10/6/2012CINCINNATI5+115  92061CUETO(R) 0.3000
 SAN FRANCISCO2-1256.5 unOver710110CAIN(R)L5351
Pitcher Versus Team Past History
MATT CAIN vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
CAIN is 4-6 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 3.66 and a WHIP of 1.317.
His team's record is 4-7 (-5.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.0 units)
MATT CAIN recent starts vs. CINCINNATI
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
10/6/2012CINCINNATI2-5-1256.5Loss,OverL5335214CUETO(R)
6/29/2012CINCINNATI1-5-1606.5Loss,UnderL6.75511217LEAKE(R)
4/24/2012at CINCINNATI2-9-1057.5Loss,OverL6.3335227LATOS(R)

MAT LATOS vs. SAN FRANCISCO since 1997
LATOS is 4-3 when starting against SAN FRANCISCO with an ERA of 2.19 and a WHIP of 0.892.
His team's record is 5-6 (-1.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-5. (+0.3 units)
MAT LATOS recent starts vs. SAN FRANCISCO
DateOpponentScoreLine TotalResultDecIPRERHHRBBSOOpp Starter
6/30/2012at SAN FRANCISCO2-1-1257.5Win,UnderW9112007ZITO(L)
4/24/2012SAN FRANCISCO9-2-1057.5Win,OverW7004023CAIN(R)
9/14/2011at SAN FRANCISCO1-3+1505.5Loss,UnderL7337218LINCECUM(R)
Team Line Action - Where the money is going!
Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%.
As indicated by the movement of the line, the betting public is favoring CINCINNATI in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 0% of the time since 1997. (0-1040, -30.6 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in SAN FRANCISCO games 50.6% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (217-212, -19.1 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 49.8% of the time since 1997. (1063-1070, -103.4 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the money line in CINCINNATI games 47.8% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (199-217, -34.4 units)
Edge=SAN FRANCISCO
 
The betting public is favoring nothing on the total in this game.
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 51.4% of the time since 1997. (785-741, -64.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in SAN FRANCISCO games 47.9% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (102-111, -20.7 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 52.4% of the time since 1997. (820-744, -25.8 units)
The betting public is correct when moving the total in CINCINNATI games 51.7% of the time over the last 3 seasons. (134-125, -4.5 units)
No Edge.
Key Player Injuries
SAN FRANCISCO
[1B] 04/08/2012 - Angel Villalona on restricted list ( Disciplinary )
[2B] 03/31/2012 - Freddy Sanchez 60-day DL (3/26), out for season ( Shoulder )
[P] 04/15/2012 - Brian Wilson 60-day DL (4/13), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/29/2012 - Eric Surkamp 60-day DL (3/26) ( Elbow )
[LF] 08/15/2012 - Melky Cabrera suspended 50 games; out for season ( Suspension )
CINCINNATI
[P] 04/27/2012 - Ryan Madson 60-day DL (3/24), out for season ( Elbow )
[P] 06/15/2012 - Nick Masset 60-day DL (3/26) ( Shoulder )
[P] 08/01/2012 - Bill Bray 15-day DL (7/31) ( Back )
[P] 10/09/2012 - Johnny Cueto expected to miss NLCS ( Back )
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