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The power rating system is based on recent game results. The section should be used to compare the relative strength of the two teams involved. A power line is calculated using both teams ratings and home field advantage. Where the power line differs significantly from the current line, the team with the edge is indicated. |
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All team trends listed below apply to the current game. |
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in all games | 11-9 | 47-43 | 265-240 | 10-9 | 43-46 | 221-198 | 16-7 | 77-21 | 406-146 | in all lined games | 11-9 | 47-43 | 265-240 | 10-9 | 43-46 | 221-198 | 13-7 | 70-21 | 370-143 | when the total is 150 to 159.5 | 2-2 | 15-15 | 77-69 | 2-2 | 13-17 | 76-70 | 2-2 | 22-8 | 99-49 | as an underdog | 1-4 | 5-8 | 46-57 | 2-3 | 4-9 | 45-48 | 1-4 | 3-10 | 32-73 | as a road underdog of 9.5 to 12 points | 0-1 | 1-1 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 2-3 | 0-1 | 0-2 | 1-4 | in road games | 3-5 | 14-14 | 82-82 | 4-4 | 13-15 | 66-71 | 4-5 | 19-10 | 106-67 | in road lined games | 3-5 | 14-14 | 82-82 | 4-4 | 13-15 | 66-71 | 3-5 | 18-10 | 99-66 | in a road game where the total is 150 to 154.5 | 1-1 | 2-4 | 12-12 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 14-9 | 1-1 | 5-1 | 13-11 | against conference opponents | 5-5 | 25-22 | 134-141 | 5-4 | 22-25 | 123-111 | 6-4 | 38-10 | 187-96 | in February games | 1-2 | 12-7 | 58-56 | 2-0 | 8-10 | 51-42 | 2-1 | 16-3 | 76-40 | on Wednesday games | 1-1 | 8-4 | 49-50 | 2-0 | 5-7 | 44-41 | 2-1 | 10-3 | 72-31 | after a conference game | 5-4 | 26-20 | 134-138 | 5-3 | 23-23 | 122-111 | 6-3 | 38-9 | 192-90 | off a loss against a conference rival | 2-1 | 7-2 | 54-37 | 1-2 | 4-5 | 41-36 | 2-1 | 8-1 | 62-31 | after allowing 80 points or more | 3-1 | 8-6 | 59-51 | 4-0 | 7-7 | 51-42 | 5-1 | 13-3 | 86-37 | when playing against a team with a winning record | 6-9 | 34-32 | 218-192 | 8-6 | 29-36 | 179-172 | 8-7 | 49-19 | 296-134 | when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games | 3-3 | 25-17 | 131-117 | 3-2 | 20-21 | 117-102 | 4-2 | 35-8 | 171-83 | versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games | 0-1 | 5-4 | 52-41 | 1-0 | 5-3 | 42-38 | 0-1 | 6-3 | 50-44 | versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game | 1-3 | 9-10 | 89-75 | 2-2 | 9-9 | 72-66 | 2-2 | 11-9 | 100-72 |
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in all games | 13-10 | 46-47 | 274-245 | 9-10 | 46-42 | 224-227 | 21-2 | 80-14 | 475-85 | in all lined games | 13-10 | 46-47 | 274-245 | 9-10 | 46-42 | 224-227 | 21-2 | 79-14 | 447-85 | when the total is 150 to 159.5 | 0-1 | 5-14 | 59-68 | 1-0 | 11-7 | 61-65 | 0-1 | 16-3 | 107-22 | as a favorite | 12-10 | 44-44 | 260-234 | 8-10 | 42-41 | 212-216 | 20-2 | 77-11 | 437-69 | as a home favorite of 9.5 to 12 points | 1-0 | 1-7 | 14-14 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 18-9 | 1-0 | 6-2 | 23-6 | in all home games | 6-6 | 19-25 | 122-99 | 4-6 | 21-21 | 95-94 | 12-0 | 42-3 | 234-16 | in home lined games | 6-6 | 19-25 | 122-99 | 4-6 | 21-21 | 95-94 | 12-0 | 41-3 | 212-16 | in a home game where the total is 150 to 154.5 | 0-0 | 1-9 | 13-17 | 0-0 | 6-4 | 18-12 | 0-0 | 9-1 | 28-2 | against conference opponents | 5-5 | 22-25 | 153-134 | 4-4 | 20-25 | 127-126 | 8-2 | 38-9 | 237-55 | in February games | 2-1 | 13-7 | 66-59 | 0-2 | 6-13 | 55-54 | 3-0 | 18-2 | 101-27 | on Wednesday games | 2-3 | 13-8 | 55-51 | 1-3 | 7-12 | 40-54 | 4-1 | 18-3 | 90-21 | after a conference game | 5-4 | 23-23 | 148-133 | 4-3 | 22-22 | 127-122 | 7-2 | 36-10 | 237-54 | off a win against a conference rival | 3-4 | 18-19 | 121-105 | 2-3 | 17-18 | 101-98 | 5-2 | 28-9 | 196-40 | when playing against a team with a winning record | 11-8 | 32-36 | 220-203 | 9-7 | 35-29 | 198-177 | 17-2 | 55-13 | 359-81 | when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games | 4-3 | 17-21 | 126-136 | 4-1 | 19-17 | 132-107 | 5-2 | 27-11 | 206-66 | versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game after 15+ games | 1-1 | 3-4 | 52-57 | 1-0 | 3-3 | 55-43 | 1-1 | 4-3 | 70-40 | versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game | 1-3 | 3-12 | 89-84 | 2-1 | 9-5 | 83-74 | 3-1 | 11-4 | 131-45 |
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Peformance statistics for each team in various situations are listed below. Categories where a team has performed poorly are denoted in red. Categories where a team has performed well are denoted in green. |
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All Games | 16-7 | -5.5 | 11-9 | 10-9 | 78.3 | 37.4 | 44.5% | 41.7 | 69.3 | 30.3 | 41.0% | 37.0 | Road Games | 5-6 | -6.8 | 4-6 | 5-5 | 76.1 | 35.5 | 43.8% | 39.5 | 73.9 | 35.1 | 43.0% | 36.8 | Last 5 Games | 3-2 | -1 | 2-3 | 4-0 | 77.0 | 34.8 | 44.4% | 36.6 | 74.0 | 36.2 | 46.1% | 34.6 | Conference Games | 6-4 | -0.4 | 5-5 | 5-4 | 71.4 | 34.6 | 42.7% | 37.6 | 68.6 | 31.8 | 44.3% | 34.9 |
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Team Stats (All Games) | 78.3 | 37.4 | 30-67 | 44.5% | 7-19 | 36.7% | 12-18 | 64.8% | 42 | 13 | 18 | 15 | 8 | 13 | 4 | vs opponents surrendering | 66.9 | 31.5 | 24-57 | 41.8% | 6-19 | 32.9% | 13-19 | 67.9% | 35 | 10 | 13 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 3 | Team Stats (Road Games) | 76.1 | 35.5 | 29-66 | 43.8% | 8-21 | 36.7% | 10-15 | 67.9% | 40 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 4 | Stats Against (All Games) | 69.3 | 30.3 | 25-62 | 41.0% | 7-21 | 35.2% | 11-16 | 69.1% | 37 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 16 | 4 | vs opponents averaging | 69.6 | 32.1 | 25-56 | 43.9% | 6-19 | 34.6% | 14-20 | 68.9% | 36 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 14 | 4 | Stats Against (Road Games) | 73.9 | 35.1 | 26-61 | 43.0% | 9-21 | 40.3% | 13-17 | 73.8% | 37 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 6 | 14 | 4 |
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All Games | 21-2 | +8.4 | 13-10 | 9-10 | 78.2 | 36.4 | 47.3% | 35.2 | 64.2 | 29.9 | 40.9% | 35.3 | Home Games | 12-0 | +3 | 6-6 | 4-6 | 81.7 | 38.1 | 48.8% | 37.3 | 60.5 | 27.9 | 38.6% | 36.0 | Last 5 Games | 5-0 | +4 | 3-2 | 1-2 | 79.6 | 42.0 | 51.8% | 30.0 | 68.0 | 32.2 | 46.1% | 31.0 | Conference Games | 8-2 | +1.4 | 5-5 | 4-4 | 75.8 | 36.1 | 46.1% | 34.3 | 67.3 | 31.2 | 44.7% | 35.5 |
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Team Stats (All Games) | 78.2 | 36.4 | 27-58 | 47.3% | 8-19 | 40.9% | 16-22 | 71.1% | 35 | 9 | 16 | 17 | 7 | 11 | 4 | vs opponents surrendering | 65 | 30.3 | 23-56 | 41.4% | 6-18 | 33.6% | 13-18 | 68.6% | 34 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 6 | 14 | 3 | Team Stats (Home Games) | 81.7 | 38.1 | 29-60 | 48.8% | 9-21 | 43.3% | 14-22 | 64.1% | 37 | 9 | 17 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 4 | Stats Against (All Games) | 64.2 | 29.9 | 24-58 | 40.9% | 5-15 | 30.4% | 12-17 | 70.5% | 35 | 10 | 9 | 19 | 5 | 15 | 3 | vs opponents averaging | 70.9 | 33.6 | 25-56 | 44.9% | 6-18 | 34.8% | 14-20 | 69.5% | 36 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 7 | 13 | 4 | Stats Against (Home Games) | 60.5 | 27.9 | 23-58 | 38.6% | 5-16 | 30.3% | 10-15 | 67.2% | 36 | 10 | 8 | 20 | 5 | 16 | 2 |
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Average power rating of opponents played: N CAROLINA 74.1, DUKE 76.4 |
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Listed below is a summary of the games results in recent Head-to-Head matchups. |
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N CAROLINA is 20-16 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997 | DUKE is 23-13 straight up against N CAROLINA since 1997 | 16 of 32 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997 |
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N CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons | DUKE is 3-2 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons | 3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons |
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N CAROLINA is 12-3 against the spread versus DUKE since 1997 | DUKE is 9-6 straight up against N CAROLINA since 1997 | 7 of 13 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL since 1997 |
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N CAROLINA is 2-0 against the spread versus DUKE over the last 3 seasons | DUKE is 1-1 straight up against N CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons | 1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons |
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3/3/2012 | N CAROLINA | 88 | -2 | SU ATS | 48 | 36-66 | 54.5% | 4-13 | 30.8% | 12-15 | 80.0% | 45 | 13 | 12 | | DUKE | 70 | 154.5 | Over | 24 | 26-63 | 41.3% | 6-21 | 28.6% | 12-21 | 57.1% | 28 | 7 | 6 | 2/8/2012 | DUKE | 85 | 155 | SU ATS | 40 | 27-62 | 43.5% | 14-36 | 38.9% | 17-26 | 65.4% | 35 | 10 | 10 | | N CAROLINA | 84 | -6 | Over | 43 | 31-63 | 49.2% | 1-6 | 16.7% | 21-30 | 70.0% | 42 | 14 | 9 | 3/13/2011 | DUKE | 75 | -4 | SU ATS | 42 | 29-58 | 50.0% | 9-20 | 45.0% | 8-15 | 53.3% | 36 | 7 | 12 | N | N CAROLINA | 58 | 147.5 | Under | 28 | 21-62 | 33.9% | 2-8 | 25.0% | 14-21 | 66.7% | 44 | 15 | 16 | 3/5/2011 | DUKE | 67 | 149 | Under | 39 | 22-62 | 35.5% | 6-27 | 22.2% | 17-22 | 77.3% | 35 | 10 | 9 | | N CAROLINA | 81 | -1.5 | SU ATS | 51 | 33-63 | 52.4% | 4-9 | 44.4% | 11-21 | 52.4% | 42 | 10 | 10 | 2/9/2011 | N CAROLINA | 73 | 156.5 | ATS | 43 | 29-68 | 42.6% | 2-14 | 14.3% | 13-22 | 59.1% | 47 | 14 | 14 | | DUKE | 79 | -10 | SU Under | 29 | 28-68 | 41.2% | 8-26 | 30.8% | 15-23 | 65.2% | 41 | 15 | 12 |
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Oddsmakers move a line in part because of one-sided public betting action on a side or total. They also move the line in reaction to wise guys selections. Either way, this section attempts to uncover whether the wise guys and public have a read on a given team. It summarizes both line and total movements. As a general rule, follow the line or total movement when percentages exceed 57% and go against it when they are below 43%. |
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The betting public is correct when moving the money line in N CAROLINA games 48.1% of the time since 1997. (203-219) | The betting public is correct when moving the money line in N CAROLINA games 49.4% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (39-40) | The betting public is correct when moving the money line in DUKE games 48.9% of the time since 1997. (207-216) | The betting public is correct when moving the money line in DUKE games 57.6% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (49-36) | |
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The betting public is correct when moving the total in N CAROLINA games 47.6% of the time since 1997. (172-189) | The betting public is correct when moving the total in N CAROLINA games 46.8% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (37-42) | The betting public is correct when moving the total in DUKE games 47.8% of the time since 1997. (194-212) | The betting public is correct when moving the total in DUKE games 44.9% of the time over the past 3 seasons. (35-43) | |
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[F] 02/12/2013 - Joel James expected to miss Wednesday vs. Duke ( Concussion ) | |
[F] 01/11/2013 - Ryan Kelly out indefinitely ( Foot ) |
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