Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (4/28/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Thursday, April 28, 2022!

The Bucks made quick work of the Bulls last night at home to clinch the series and advance to the second round. The Bulls made a push to cover the spread late, but ultimately fell short. We hit the Milwaukee spread, the Mlwaukee series bet, and the Milwaukee series prop ( to win in four or five games). This game certainly helped the bottom line and gives us a jumpstart on accomplishing the goal of being profitable while betting every game and every series in the NBA playoffs. 

The Warriors made a furious comeback in the fourth quarter and nearly covered the 9-point spread late. Unfortunately, they won the game, but didn’t quite cover. That’s the issue with betting large spreads. Oftentimes, the last few meaningless possessions can be the difference between your bet cashing and losing. We did pick up another win in the series bets to bring that tally to 4-0. 

We are back at it tonight with three games on the schedule. The Raptors are looking to push the Sixers to seven games, the Pelicans are looking to push the Suns to seven games, and the Jazz are looking to push the Mavericks to seven games. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Thursday

Sixers at Toronto Raptors – 7:00 PM ET

Series: PHI 3-2

While I picked the Raptors to win this series before the playoffs started, I am genuinely surprised that they were able to go on the road and beat the Sixers in Game 5. No team has ever come back from an 0-3 deficit in the NBA playoffs, but the Raptors have a golden opportunity to force a Game 7 with a win at home. At this point, they have to feel like all of the pressure is squarely on the shoulders of the Sixers. 

The stats don’t give a big edge to either team, both in terms of season-long numbers and series numbers. The Sixers have the edge on the glass, the Raptors have taken better care of the ball, and both teams are solid defensively. Both teams are expected to be short-handed in Game 6, as Matisse Thybulle has been ruled out and Fred VanVleet is listed as doubtful. Additionally, Joel Embiid is playing through the torn ligament in his thumb. 

Ultimately, I’m right in line with the NBA betting market on this one. I don’t see either team as the clear favorite and the game features a spread of only 1.5 points. When in doubt, I like to side with the home team. The Raptors are clearly riding momentum, and while depth is an issue, we can expect their best four players to play 40+ minutes. Toronto’s crowd will provide the sixth-man energy and Philadelphia has to be feeling the pressure after being up 3-0 to start the series.

• ATS Pick: Toronto +1.5, Multiple Sportsbooks

Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans – 7:30 PM ET

Series: PHO 3-2

This has been an extremely fun series to watch and not one that we expected to be very competitive when it started. The Suns were easily the best team during the regular season, while the Pelicans barely snuck into the play-in tournament. New Orleans has given Phoenix a battle and now has a chance to force a Game 7 with a win at home. While this doesn’t have any predictive value, it’s interesting that the teams have traded off wins in every game thus far. 

The big story heading into Game 6 is that Devin Booker could return to the lineup. He’s still listed as doubtful, but there’s a very small chance he’s able to suit up. Perhaps this is the Suns making chess moves in order to keep the Pelicans on their toes. The betting market doesn’t seem to think Booker will suit up, as the Suns are only listed as 2-point favorites. 

If we look at the stats from the first five games, the Pelicans have dominated the boards, while the Suns have taken better care of the ball and have shot the ball better. Similar to the first game, I could see this game going either way. The stars on both teams have played great all series, so this might come down to the role players. Ultimately, I trust Cam Payne, Cam Johnson, Jae Crowder, and Miles Bridges more than Herb Jones (big fan btw), Larry Nance, Jaxson Hayes, and Jose Alvarado. I also like betting on a proven closer in Chris Paul. 

• ATS Pick: Phoenix -2, PointsBet Sportsbook

Dallas Mavericks at Utah Jazz – 10:00 PM ET

Series: DAL 3-2

The final game of the night is one that I am glad is starting late. I will be putting my little man to bed and will be going straight to the hard liquor. The Jazz have been a consistent let-down for their fans since the John Stockton and Karl Malone days. After failing to show up for Game 5 and after losing two games with Luka Doncic out of the lineup, they are now on the brink of elimination. 

We don’t have to dive too deep into the numbers to see the big issue for the Jazz. They are a team that relies on three-point shooting and they are 28% from distance in this series, which is the worst mark of any team in the playoffs. For reference, they made the second most three-pointers during the regular season. The good news for the Jazz is that it sounds like Donovan Mitchell will be able to suit up after hurting his hamstring late in Game 5. 

The Mavericks had an amazing performance from Luka Doncic in Game 5 and have the momentum on their side. Perhaps this is the inner-Jazz fan talking here, but the Mavericks could see some regression in terms of their three-point shooting and in terms of their turnover rate. The lowest turnover rate for any team during the regular season was 12% and the Mavericks have a 9% turnover rate in this series. 

I am taking the Jazz here, but know that I am betting with my heart. 

• ATS Pick: Utah -1, DraftKings Sportsbook