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Week 4 Staff Best Bets: Thursday Night Football – Bengals vs. Dolphins

ScoresAndOdds Staff Thu 9/29 10:50am PT
Bengals vs. Dolphins expert picks
Image Credit: Imagn

Many of our ScoresAndOdds NFL experts will bring you free betting picks each week for the prime-time Thursday Night Football game!

The Miami Dolphins are 3-0 and the hype train is out of control! There are plenty of questions leading into Thursday night’s game between Miami and Cincinnati.

Tua Tagovailoa and Jaylen Waddle popped up on the injury report all week, but as of Thursday morning, both Dolphin stars are “expected” to suit up for tonight’s game.

Let’s see what our SAO experts are backing on the betting board tonight.

Thursday Night Football – Week 4: Free Bengals vs. Dolphins Betting Picks

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (Multiple Sportsbooks)

The Dolphins are a great story and are the only undefeated team in the AFC, but let’s pump the breaks a bit. They only won in Week 2 because the Ravens had a complete 4th quarter collapse after being up by 21 points.

They somehow won in Week 3, despite being outgained by more than 275 yards. This team really should be 1-2. Now, they’re traveling to face the defending AFC Super Bowl representative in a tough prime time game. I really think this might be a rout, with the Bengals looking to right the ship after an unsteady start to the year.

Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 (Multiple Sportsbooks)

First off, I think both these teams are being overvalued. Dolphins have gotten quit a bit of luck to be 3-0. Despite the off season additions at offensive line, Joe Burrow is still getting pressured at a high rate and Joe Mixon can’t get any room to run.

With that being said, where there is smoke, there is fire and Tua being wobbled last week with Waddle being put on the injury report this week has me thinking that’s a tough task on a short week against a team who needs to win this game more at this early point in the season

Cincinnati Bengals Moneyline (-175, DraftKings)

Much like Chop and STL, I love the Bengals in this spot. The Dolphins are coming off of an emotional win against the Bills and they’ve had to move around during the week due to the hurricane. This feels like a let-down spot for one of the two remaining unbeaten teams in the league. If you zoom out and look at the season as a whole, the Dolphins have really only been dominant in one quarter.

The only concern I have for Cincinnati is the offensive line. They have struggled to protect Joe Burrow all season (last season too) and the Dolphins love to blitz. The good news is that Miami hasn’t been able to generate a ton of pressure.

If Burrow has time in the pocket, he is going to shred a secondary that could be without their best two cornerbacks. Give me the home team here, but I slightly prefer the moneyline given the fact that the 3.5-point spread brings a lot of scenarios into play where the Bengals win, but don’t cover.

Ja’Marr Chase Over 73.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

The Dolphins were on the field for 90 defensive snaps against Buffalo last week. Miami’s secondary is banged up as it is, while Xavien Howard is questionable. If he goes, he will not be 100%.

Chase owns 27% of Cinci’s target market share and 34% of its air-yard market share. He’s still the alpha and this could be a great matchup to exploit a tired defense, which was forced to also travel on a very short week.

Joe Mixon Over 64.5 Rushing Yards (-110, FanDuel)

With the Bengals coming into the game as 3.5-point home favorites, we should get a favorable game script for Joe Mixon. The Dolphins are coming off a hard-fought, emotional win over the Bills in the Miami heat, while the Bengals cruised to an easy victory over the Jets.

Several Miami players were clearly gassed and cramping by the end of the Bills game, and the short week provides little time for the Dolphins to recuperate. The Bengals should be the fresher team here which theoretically helps them win in the trenches and open up some holes for Mixon to take advantage of. Mixon is off to a bit of a slow start this year, but I like him to get on track this week and go over 64.5 rushing yards.