Utah vs. Phoenix (2/27/22): Preview, Prediction and Betting Pick

Nick Galaida breaks down the Jazz vs Suns matchup for Sunday. Check out our premium betting picks!

On Sunday afternoon, the Utah Jazz will travel to the Footprint Center to battle the Phoenix Suns.

Entering play, the Jazz and Suns each occupy a top-four seed in the Western Conference playoff picture.

Though these two teams have a realistic chance to see each other during the postseason, it is unlikely that bettors will get a meaningful preview of how these teams match-up for a potential seven game series, due to the absence of Chris Paul.

Still, despite Paul’s absence, oddsmakers anticipate Phoenix taking care of home court in this one–pricing them as one point favorites on the spread.

Jazz vs. Suns Odds

Making A Case For The Jazz

Though the market has Utah priced as an underdog on Sunday, it would not be surprising in the slightest if they pulled an “upset.”

The Jazz are 19-7 in the last 26 games in which Rudy Gobert has been on the floor, and 8-3 the last 11 times that both Donovan Mitchell and Gobert have started.

Per Cleaning the Glass, when Mitchell and Gobert share the court this season, the Jazz rank in the 97th percentile in offensive efficiency and the 84th percentile in defensive efficiency. 

Making A Case For The Suns

Chris Paul is the most notable absence for the Suns in this contest, but Cameron Payne being ruled out is also worth mentioning here, considering that it leaves Phoenix without a traditional point guard on the active roster.

Per Cleaning the Glass, the Suns rank in the 41st percentile in offensive efficiency and the 82nd percentile in defensive efficiency this season when Paul is on the sidelines.

When both Paul and Payne are off of the floor at the same time, Phoenix plummets to the 21st percentile in defensive efficiency. 

In two games, without Paul and Payne, since the All-Star break, Phoenix defeated the Oklahoma City Thunder 124-104, but lost to the New Orleans Pelicans 117-102.

In the limited sample size, the Suns rank 20th in the NBA in offensive efficiency and 7th in defensive efficiency. 

In those two games, Devin Booker has commanded a 31.1 percent usage rate, averaging 26.3 points and 8.1 assists per 36 minutes of action.

On the year, Booker leads the team with a 33.2 percent usage rate when Paul and Payne are on the sidelines.

Per CourtIQ, Jae Crowder is the biggest beneficiary of the point guards being on the sidelines, receiving a 2.5 percent bump in usage rate–though his usage rate remains low at 15.8 percent.

Pick and Prediction

The Jazz and Suns met twice near the end of January, but Utah was missing both Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert for each of those contests.

Despite the absence of their two best players, the Jazz lost by only 6 points, and 8 points, to a Phoenix roster that was only missing Deandre Ayton. 

In the third meeting between these two elite teams, expect Mitchell and Gobert to reverse the script, leading Utah to a statement win over the current top seed in the Western Conference standings.

Money Breakdown

As of this writing, FanDuel is reporting that 70% of the bets are on Phoenix, but only 61% of the handle is on the Suns.

Typically, such a breakdown would suggest that sharp money is coming in on the Jazz ahead of tip-off.

• Free NBA Betting Pick: Jazz, Moneyline (-129), BetRivers