mlb Expert Picks
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Sonny Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Risking 1.15u to win 1uGray had a slow ramp-up to the season due to a Spring Training hamstring injury. He made his 2024 season debut on April 9th, recording 5 strikeouts in 5 innings against the Phillies despite throwing only 64 pitches. He has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in each of the 3 starts since his debut, and he owns an elite 36% strikeout rate for the season.
No, I don't think Gray (at age 34) is suddenly an elite strikeout pitcher, as he posted a strikeout rate barely above league average over the last two seasons. But, the underlying metrics are hard to ignore. His swinging-strike rate sits at a healthy 13.7% through 5 starts, and his CSW% is an elite 32.7%.
He gets a matchup against the horrendous White Sox, who own the worst wRC+ (74) in the league and have struck out at the 11th-highest rate (23.8%) this season.
Even with a little regression in the underlying metrics, Gray should go over 5.5 strikeouts.
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