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Draymond Green less than 21.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (Underdog)
Risking 1.37u to win 1uThe Warriors will be shorthanded having already ruled out Stephen Curry and De'Anthony Melton, while head coach Steve Kerr said Andrew Wiggins is "most likely out" (although he'll enter Tuesday with a questionable tag). This is going to leave a huge offensive void, but I don't think Green will be the one to fill it.
This season, Green is averaging just 4.3 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3 assists per game, good for a 11.6 PRA. He's only averaging 22.3 minutes per game through 3 games due to blowouts, so these numbers are a bit skewed down. However, the RotoGrinders CourtIQ tool shows that when Curry was off the court last season, Green took a hit across scoring, rebounding, and assists. This makes sense to me, as Green's value to the Warriors is setting up Curry for shots and playing off of his Hall-of-Fame teammate for easy buckets.
I took the per-minute rates that Green averaged last season with Curry off the court (0.66 PRA per minute) and multiplied it by his average minutes per game from last season (27.1), which gives me a PRA of roughly 17.89. I know this isn't a perfect science, as he could easily see more minutes or outperform his per-minute rate from last season, but I believe this 21.5 PRA number is just slightly too high. The matchup isn't a great one either, as the Pelicans have size if the Warriors try to play big (Zion Williamson, Daniel Theis, Yves Missi) or can go small to match the Warriors (Herb Jones).