2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds and Golf Betting Picks at Bay Hill

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Congratulations to Sepp Straka on his first victory at the Honda Classic last weekend.  Sepp is the first Austrian to win a PGA Tour event.  While my article card only featured four golfers with the preview, I added Sepp Straka before the tournament at a boosted 170/1 for a nice payday – more on that later.  

The Florida swing continues this week with the second stop at Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  The field will be a bit stronger as players prep for the Players Championship next weekend.  Another difficult, long layout with water and wind.  Should be fun!  Let’s do it.  

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Odds

At the time of this writing — March 1st — you can bet on these odds with our BetMGM promo code.  The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

120 players were invited to play at Bay Hill with 65 and ties making the cut.  As mentioned above the field this week is a bit stronger this weekend.  We add Jon Rahm, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Hideki Matsuyama and others.  Bryson DeChambeau withdrew on Tuesday afternoon because of his lingering injury.  We will not see a repeat of Bryson nearly driving the green on the Par 5 sixth hole.  

Here is a list of recent winners and their scores at the event.  

• 2021 – Bryson DeChambeau (-11)
• 2020 – Tyrrell Hatton (-4) 
• 2019 – Francesco Molinari (-12)
• 2018 – Rory McIlroy (-18)
• 2017 – Marc Leishman (-11)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-17)
• 2015 – Matt Every (-19)
• 2014 – Matt Every (-13)

In 2020, the Hatton victory came with such a low score because wind conditions on the weekend were brutal.  Only Matt Fitzpatrick broke 70 that weekend – foreshadowing for later.  In 2018, Rory put together one of the best putting performances of his career to get to -18.  We are likely to see a winning score around -10 to -12 and a cut line close to +1.  

Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Preview

• Course: Bay Hill
• Date: March 3 – 6
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,419
• Greens: Bermuda

Bay Hill hosts the second leg of the Florida Swing.  Arnold Palmer’s tournament fetches a stronger field than the Honda and will prove to be a worthwhile test for players.  Very long with grown out rough, Bay Hill tests every facet of a player’s game.  

We will not witness another fantastic moment with Bryson taking aim at the Par 5 – sixth hole, but length should still be considered when culling out golfers for your card.  Accuracy off the tee is crucial, but long irons will be the most important tools in a player’s bag this week.  Proximity to the hole from north of 200 yards should be heavily weighed.  

With four Par 5’s, players must take advantage of opportunities because scoring will likely be at a premium.  Nine holes will come with water hazards and weather can be an issue if winds pick up.  As referenced above when Hatton won in 2020, scoring will be impossible if winds become a problem.  Check for wind prior to finalizing your card and setting your DFS lineups. 

All of the Par 3’s fall within the 200-225 range.  Filtering golfers with success at this length cannot be ignored as pars will be excellent scores.  

The greens are lightning quick Bermuda, so filtering statistics for players that excel on this grass as well as fast-paced greens could be very useful.  Greens are compared to PGA National and Augusta National – finding golfers with success at these venues should be a useful corollary.  

As for statistics, I am looking at SG: Approach, Proximity > 200, SG: Par 5, Fairways, and putting on fast Bermuda.  Let’s get into our initial card.  

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be reference over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Matthew Fitzpatrick +3000 (FoxBet)

As referenced before, Fitzpatrick was able to put together an incredible performance in 2020 as the only golfer to have a round sub-70 over a terribly windy weekend.  With plenty of experience in tougher conditions, we can safely bet him knowing conditions won’t be a major concern.

Look, let’s be honest.  At some point, Jon Rahm is going to play a tournament and dominate the field.  His putting woes are going to be corrected.  When that happens, I am just going to lose.  I will continue to take better prices on golfers as Rahm gets priced in that solitary elite tier.  

Fitzpatrick has great success at this course, with three consecutive T10 finishes.  He is the top putter in the field on Bermuda greens.  I am going to start here for 1.25 units on FOX Bet.  

Sam Burns +5000 (Bet365)

Sam Burns makes the list at 50/1 on Bet365.  In a very, very, very short bit of time, sportsbooks and possibly bettors, seem to forget the form with which Burns closed the 2021 season.  

Pop Quiz – How many golfers in the top 20 of the OWGR are playing in this week’s field?  Sam Burns at 16th is the 5th of five golfers in the field.  At 50/1, the price seems a bit inflated for someone with Burns’ potential.  Burns’ checks the boxes on approach and length, and sits 2nd in the field in strokes gained on Par 3: 200-225.  

For me, when betting outrights, I want an upside in price that matches the upside of the player.  Burns has won on tour and played well in better fields.  With a strong weekend, he has the tools to get it done.  Give me a half-unit share at Bet365. 

Jason Kokrak +5000 (DraftKings)

Course history, anyone?  Jason Kokrak has six T20 finishes in his last eight starts at Bay Hill.  With only one missed cut, it is pretty evident that Kokrak finds Arnie’s course very comfortable.  

Kokrak is the only player ranked ahead of Sam Burns in strokes gained on Par 3: 200-225.  The rest of his game is pretty solid.  While Bermuda is not his best putting surface, he still ranks 17th in strokes gained on Bermuda over his last 36 rounds.  His current form is not white hot but I am willing to minimize that importance because of his course history.  

At this price tag, I need a half-unit share on DraftKings.  Hopefully, Kokrak can parlay all of his success into a big victory on Sunday.  

Cameron Young +8000 (ScoreBet)

With a bet at 100/1 earlier in the week, Cameron Young was the first player to hit my card.  While I am much more pleased with the price I paid, I would still be willing to back the young upstart at 80/1.  

Young feels like a bit of a Diet Bryson DeChambeau.  While length isn’t vastly important at this course, Bryson showed that bombing the ball and gauging out of rough with wedges could be successful if you can hole your putts.  Young checks so many of my boxes – 5th in distance, 20th in proximity >200, and 22nd in putting.  He won’t find every fairway, but given his length, that might not matter much with shorter clubs in hand.  

A first career win seems like a tough ask at the API but… I mean, Matt Every went back-to-back here.  Young has all of the talent.  I don’t want to miss his breakthrough.  I have ⅜ of a unit at 100/1 odds.  Don’t be afraid to purchase at 80/1.  

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card

My card last week started with my article and Brooks Koepka, Jhonattan Vegas, Gary Woodland, and Patrick Reed.  By Wednesday, on Twitter, I added Garrick Higgo and Sepp Straka (wooh!) and a few FRL bets that failed.  All in all, last week’s card cost 4.075 units for a return of just over 34.10 units.  The beginning of this season is proving fruitful!  Let’s keep it going!  

2022 Profit in Units:  +87 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.