2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Preview: Odds and PGA Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Classic. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Another tournament down, more units burnt.  Congratulations to Max Homa, winner of his second Wells Fargo Championship with a strong performance throughout a very murky, weather-dependent week.  On tap, we have the final stop on the PGA Tour before the PGA Championship, the AT&T Byron Nelson Classic.  Last year, K.H. Lee punched his ticket to the major with a victory at this tournament.  Will someone match that effort?  Let’s start with the odds. 

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Classic Odds

At the time of this writing –  May 10th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners at the AT&T Byron Nelson:

2021 – K.H. Lee (-25)*

2020 – Not played

2019 – Sung Kang (-23)

2018 – Aaron Wise (-23)

2017 – Billy Horschel (-12)

2016 – Sergio Garcia (-15)

2015 – Steven Bowditch (-18)

2014 – Brendon Todd (-14)

*2021 was the first year the Byron Nelson Classic was played at TPC Craig Ranch.

At the time of this writing, 156 golfers will tee it up on Thursday with the top 65 and ties playing on the weekend.  Seven of the top 15 golfers in the OWGR will play – headlined by World #1, Scottie Scheffler.  

Dustin Johnson plays his first tournament since wedlock while Xander Schauffele makes his first start at the AT&T Byron Nelson.  Brooks Koepka is back after missing the cut at the Masters.  Justin Thomas is still in search of his first tournament victory of the season with the field also including Will Zalatoris, Sam Burns, Jordan Spieth, Joaquin Niemann, and many others.  

Brian Harman withdrew from the field on Tuesday afternoon and was replaced by Chase Seiffert.

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Craig Ranch
• Date: May 12 – 15
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,468
• Greens: Bentgrass

TPC Craig Ranch hosts the AT&T Byron Nelson for the second time.  The course will play host for four more years after previously being hosted by Trinity Forest Club and both TPC Four Seasons courses. 

The course features zoysia fairways and bentgrass greens.  Rowlett Creek meanders about the course and crosses through 14 times.  Featuring rolling hills throughout, the course is pretty open with non-existent rough to worry about.  Judging by K.H. Lee’s score last season, I would presume this might become a birdiefest.  

Speaking to that, Sam Burns carried a 54-hole lead into Sunday before succumbing to pressure and weather on Sunday with a final-round 70.  Burns shot an impressive 62 in Round 2 but was beaten by K.H. Lee’s Sunday 66.  

Six Par 4’s sit in the 450-500 yard bucket this week.  Surprise, surprise, two of them are the toughest holes on the course.  Hole 16 seems to be the biggest test, yielding nearly 26% bogeys.  Three of the four Par 3’s are longer than 200 yards.  These holes are two of the toughest five holes on the course. 

Two of the short Par 4’s and all of the Par 5’s rank as the easiest six holes on the course.  They range from 38.9% to 53.4% in birdie rate.  53.4%!  If players can keep it together for twelve holes, occasionally trading a bogey for a birdie, they can take advantage of these six excellent scoring opportunities.  

Due to the four par 5’s and 3 long par 3’s, proximity from north of 200 yards will be crucial.  Players with success with their longer irons should excel.  Ryan Palmer leads the field over his last 36 rounds with Matthew Wolff and Will Zalatoris following the Texan.

Despite finishing with 10.7 strokes gained tee-to-green last season, Will Zalatoris lost 4.6 strokes on or around the green.  A breakeven type of week with the flat stick should vault Zalatoris in contention for a breakthrough victory.  

Matthew Wolff managed to gain in all of the main categories last week… except SG: OTT.  Wolff continues to spray golf balls and find trouble off the tee.  Perhaps, Wolff rides the positive momentum from his 25th place finish to better play when OTT will not be as challenging.  

Let’s talk statistics!  SG: Approach is king, as always.  I will include SG: OTT, SG: Putting, SG: Par 5 and a few of the aforementioned proximity and distance ranges.  

2022 AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Joaquin Niemann +3500 (DraftKings)

Niemann pulled off a shock victory at the Genesis that afterwards didn’t feel all that shocking.  He checks (in bold) the box OTT and sits in the Top 20 in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds.  Niemann is by no means a great putter but his game on and around the green has improved over the last couple of seasons. 

With a big victory in pocket, Niemann sits in the tier just below the top.  Yet, as we saw the Genesis, he can go on runs where he is on very green and every pin to get really low.  I love him in a birdiefest almost as much as Sam Burns.  I just love Niemann’s price more.  I am going to start my card with 1.25 units on Niemann.

Talor Gooch +4500 (PointsBet)

With the importance of SG: Approach, Talor Gooch must be considered.  Starting with Niemann, adding Gooch as another second-tier golfer makes plenty of sense and leaves me with room for addition later in the week as the odds board matures.  

Gooch ranks 8th in the field in approach but struggles some off the tee.  The lack of danger lurking on this course makes me feel like the importance of SG: OTT is likely mitigated.  

Sitting in 8th in GIR’s and 3rd in SG: Par 4 450-500, I think Gooch is a nice value to add to my card.  We will add a full unit on PointsBet.

Matthew Wolff +13000 (DraftKings)

Now we get to the fun part of the card, earlier than usual.  Matthew Wolff put together a decent performance last week at Wells Fargo, gaining on the field in every category except off-the-tee. 

We know how far Wolff hits the ball with his quirky swing.  We also know that hitting fairways isn’t his bag.  This week, hitting fairways isn’t as important as normal and the added length could go a long way on some of these longer holes – especially the Par 5’s.  

That all being said, Wolff’s priced as such a long shot that we get in very cheaply with winning upside.  If you believe in Wolff’s talent, his price for the PGA Championship is currently 125/1 at FoxBet coming off of a strong week.  If he repeats this week, that price will stick or get worse.  

For this week, we’ll include Wolff for 0.3125 units at DraftKings.  

Luke List +13000 (DraftKings)

Well, much of what was said about Wolff applies to Luke List with regard to pricing.  I won earlier this season with List and I am finding fading very challenging given the prices.  Perhaps, this is a hole in my approach.  That said, Luke List checks every single box.  

Except putting. Boy, does he struggle putting.  List has lost strokes putting in his last five measured events.  The last time he gained strokes putting (3.7 strokes), he beat Will Zalatoris in a playoff at the Farmers.  The upside is always there.  I am not sure he needs to gain that many strokes, we just need Luke to break even.  

Luckily, the price is so cheap that the ticket cost isn’t much.  Like Wolff, we will wager 0.3125 units at DraftKings to round out our opening card.  

Including List and Wolff as bombs now leaves plenty of room for another mid-range golfer or two.  

AT&T Byron Nelson Betting Card

We risk 2.875 units, so far.  The two longshots offer some room to consider another mid-range golfer and maybe even another bomb.  I will probably stay away from the top of the board barring some kind of free bet explosion prior to Wednesday night.  

Last week, we took a 6.375 unit hit with our outrights, FRL’s, and T20 bet at Matt NeSmith airballing for the week.  For a bit, Cameron Young looked to maybe challenge for a playoff late but couldn’t quite get enough help from Max Homa and/or Keegan Bradley to get there.  This all but guarantees I will play Cameron Young in every event he plays until he wins.  Good luck this week!

2022 Profit in Units:  +77.6875 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.