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2022 Carolina Panthers Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Wed 8/31 8:07am PT
Our NFL experts are backing a team win total for the Carolina Panthers set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Carolina Panthers and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Carolina Panthers looked very good during the first three weeks of the 2021 season. In fact, there were a few pundits who went as far as to put them in the way-too-early Super Bowl conversation. Carolina followed their 3-0 start with four consecutive losses, en route to a disappointing 5-12 final regular season record.

In the offseason, the front office traded for Baker Mayfield and attempted to bolster the offensive line, taking Ikem Ekwonu with the 6th overall selection in the NFL draft. Head Coach Matt Rhule returns for his third season, in what feels like a make-or-break opportunity for his job security. There is not much hype surrounding this franchise heading into 2022, but let’s evaluate this roster unit-by-unit to see if there is anything that the national media may be overlooking heading into this fall.

Carolina Panthers 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Matt Corral

By all accounts, Baker Mayfield’s 2021 campaign was a failure. However, it is highly doubtful that the former first overall draft selection will be anywhere near as bad as Sam Darnold was last year for the Panthers, when Darnold threw for only nine touchdowns against 13 interceptions in 12 games.

Mayfield posted career-worst numbers last year with the Cleveland Browns, due to his insistence on playing with a fully-torn shoulder from Week 2 until the end of the season. Still, Mayfield graded as a better signal caller than Darnold, who finished second-worst on Pro Football Focus’ quarterback grading system. It is reasonable to expect a healthy Mayfield to be a top-15 quarterback in Carolina this season, judging based on the fact that Mayfield finished with a better than league average passer rating on nearly all metrics in 2019 and 2020 – both years in which he was playing near full health.

At minimum, the Mayfield experience should turn out better than the Darnold/Cam Newton/P.J. Walker experience from a year ago. Panthers fans should be optimistic about what the passing attack could look like in 2022.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Christian McCaffrey, Chuba Hubbard, D’Onta Foreman, Spencer Brown

Christian McCaffrey was limited to only 99 carries last year, suffering through another injury-plagued year. In the four games that McCaffrey was on the field for more than 50 percent of the offensive snaps, Carolina went 3-1, and averaged 25 points per game. When healthy, he remains a game-changing presence for this running game. Chuba Hubard handled the majority of the workload in McCaffrey’s absence in 2021, totaling 612 rushing yards on 172 attempts.

However, his meager 3.6 yards-per-carry makes it likely that he will see a dramatically reduced role in 2022, as long as McCaffrey is available. D’Onta Foreman could eventually find himself as the primary change-of-pace option in this backfield. Foreman spent the last two years with the Tennessee Titans, where he averaged 4.3 yards-per-carry on 155 rushing attempts. He is a valuable depth piece for this unit.   

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr., Tommy Tremble

D.J. Moore caught 93 balls on 163 targets in 2021, totaling 1,157 receiving yards and four touchdowns. However, there was little else from this unit that impressed anyone last season. Robbie Anderson finished the year ranked 97th out of 117 eligible players at his position in receiving grade, per Pro Football Focus. Christian McCaffrey finished third on the team in receiving yards, despite playing in only seven games.

Acquiring Baker Mayfield could help elevate the overall product of this group, but this is still one of the weaker wide receiver units in football from a pure talent perspective. Expect Moore to do the majority of the heavy lifting again in 2022.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Ikem Ekwonu, Brady Christensen, Pat Elflein, Austin Corbett, Taylor Moton

The offensive line was a tremendous problem for the Panthers in 2021, prompting the front office to completely overhaul this unit during the offseason. Ikem Ekwonu was selected with the 6th overall pick in this past summer’s draft in an effort to stabilize the blind side in the passing game.

However, Ekwonu is far from a finished product as a pass-blocker, and could have a rude initiation to the NFL in Week 1, trying to slow down Myles Garrett. Austin Corbett was brought over from the Los Angeles Rams in an effort to improve the run-blocking for this offense, but is likely to be similarly ineffectual in pass protection.

Brady Christensen was far worse than league average in both pass-protection and as a run-blocker during his rookie year. He will need to take a major step forward this fall or the left side of this offensive line could be extremely vulnerable each week. Pat Elfein has consistently been among the worst centers in the NFL since he entered the league in 2017.

The sixth-year offensive lineman is unlikely to improve much at this point in his career. If this unit hopes to be remotely serviceable this fall, they will need another elite season from Taylor Moton at right tackle. Moton has been, arguably, the most consistent right tackle in the league across the last five seasons, during which he has graded as a top-30 run-blocker and top-10 in pass protection, per Pro Football Focus.

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Brian Burns, Derrick Brown, Matt Ioannidis, Yetur Gross-Matos

The Panthers’ strong defensive season in 2021 was largely overlooked due to their inability to win games on a consistent basis. However, the fact that Morgan Fox and Haason Reddick both departed for new teams during the offseason casts legitimate doubt as to whether this unit can replicate their 8th place finish in rush yards allowed per play and 9th in rush EPA from last fall. Reddick led this group with 11 sacks in 2021, and added 12 tackles-for-loss.

In his place, Brian Burnes, Derrick Brown, Matt Ioannidis, and Yetur Gross-Matos will be tasked with picking up the slack. Burns is a capable pass-rusher, but is yet to have a single productive season as a run defender in the NFL.

Derrick Brown has been similarly deficient in the running game during his first two seasons as a professional. Matt Ioannidis recorded only 2.5 sacks last year with the Washington Commanders, and has never been a capable run defender during his six-year career. Gross-Matos leaves much to be desired in all facets of the game, though he still has time to develop, considering that 2022 will be only his third year in the league.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Shaq Thompson, Damien Wilson, Frankie Luvu

Shaq Thompson is the clear leader of this linebacker corps, and has established himself as a bonafide star in the NFL. Thompson played only 14 games in 2021, but still managed to record 104 tackles, including nine tackles-for-loss. Expect him to be a strong contributor again this fall.

Unfortunately, there is not much else to like from this part of the Carolina roster. Damien Wilson has consistently been an underperformer at his position since entering the league in 2015, and finished last year ranked 70th out of 86 linebackers in Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Frankie Luvu performed well in a limited role in 2021, but will need to prove that his ascension should be taken seriously, considering his rough first three years as a professional. 

Secondary

Depth Chart: Donte Jackson, Jeremy Chinn, Xavier Woods, Jaycee Horn

Losing Stephon Gilmore from the secondary unit is a noteworthy blow for this unit, but it is also worth mentioning that the veteran cornerback only played in eight games last season for Carolina. Despite his lack of availability, the Panthers ranked 8th in pass yards allowed per play and 13th in dropback EPA. Donte Jackson and Jaycee Horn do not profile well in coverage, but strong play from safeties Jeremy Chinn and Xavier Woods should lead to a respectable pass defense once again this season.

2022 Carolina Panthers Outlook And Betting Pick

In each of Matt Rhule’s first two years as head coach in Carolina, the Panthers have won five games. In both seasons, the team was hampered by poor quarterback play and the absence of Cristian McCaffrey, who has played in only 10 contests for this coaching staff. Trading for a healthy (and motivated) Baker Mayfield during the offseason figures to upgrade the passing attack by significant margins compared to 2020 and 2021. McCaffrey enters the new campaign seemingly healthy and ready to contribute as both a runner and a pass-catcher.

The offensive and defensive line remain legitimate question marks, but neither weakness should prove too costly this fall. The loss of Morgan Fox and Haason Reddick from the defensive side of the ball could be offset by improved injury luck and a better signal caller leading the offense. If this team can stay reasonably healthy, seven wins is far from a pipe dream, considering the fact that the Panthers have two games against the lowly Atlanta Falcons and the benefit of playing the New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, and Detroit Lions this season. Take the over at plus-money.

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