2022 Detroit Lions Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions
NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Detroit Lions and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.
“Good teams win, great teams cover” became the moniker surrounding the Detroit Lions 2021 season – at least within the betting community. Despite not winning a game until Week 13, the Lions cashed plenty of tickets for bettors due to their proclivity for playing hard-fought football, covering the spread in 11 of 17 games. Yet, the Lions finished the year with a disappointing 3-13-1 overall record in the standings.
During the offseason, the Lions were featured on the annual series, Hard Knocks, which follows an NFL team throughout training camp. Motivational speeches from head coach Dan Campbell, and tear-inspiring conversations in the huddle captured the hearts and minds of many football fans around the country – leading to many people expecting great things out of the Motor City this fall. Let’s take a look at the Lions unit-by-unit to see if the hype is warranted.
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Detroit Lions 2022 Team Preview
Quarterbacks
Depth Chart: Jared Goff, David Blough, Tim Boyle
In his first season with the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff posted his worst numbers since his rookie year in the NFL. In 14 games, Goff threw only 19 touchdowns against eight interceptions, and finished the year ranked 24th in QBR. The advanced metrics were even more harsh on Goff’s performance, as he ranked 27th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passing grade, per Pro Football Focus. In six seasons, Goff has only finished in the top-14 in PFF grading at his position once – during the 2018 campaign, and has now posted three consecutive years ranked 20th or worse. Despite being selected with the first overall selection in the 2016 draft, Goff has not grown into a well-rounded signal caller.
Last fall, he posted a worse than league average passer rating on throws past the line of scrimmage, and struggled with throws of all target depths.
The Lions added wide receiver Jameson Williams with the 12th overall draft pick this past summer, but Goff has essentially the same offensive supporting cast and coaching staff from last year’s unimpressive performance. There is always going to be optimism that a former top draft pick finally figures things out, but Goff is entering year seven of a career that has been largely unimpressive. It would be unwise to expect much different from him in 2022.
Running Backs
Depth Chart: D’Andre Swift, Jamaal Williams, Craig Reynolds, Jermar Jefferson
D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams experienced a true timeshare in the backfield last season, splitting 304 carries, with near identical end of season numbers across the board. Swift averaged 4.1 yards-per-carry and Williams averaged 3.9 yards-per-carry for a rushing attack that finished 26th in rushing EPA. Part of the issues from last season can be attributed to the fact that the offensive line was rarely healthy. However, there will be no excuses for this group in 2022, running behind an unquestionably elite offensive line. Swift and Williams should see a major uptick in production, assuming reasonably good health across the board in the backfield and on the offensive line.
Wide Receivers And Tight Ends
Depth Chart: Amon-Ra St. Brown, DJ Chark Jr., Jameson Williams, T.J. Hockenson
There is little doubt that Amon-Ra St. Brown was Goff’s favorite target in the passing game in 2021. Brown led the team in overall targets, with 119. He was also Goff’s most targeted receiver on 3rd down, under pressure, against the blitz, and in the red zone. St. Brown played all 17 games as a rookie, finishing with 912 receiving yards and five touchdowns en route to ranking 18th out of 117 players in receiving grade last season. St. Brown has an incredibly bright future, and figures to continue abusing opposing slot cornerbacks for years to come.
Improved play from his quarterback could raise his ceiling even higher. D.J. Chark had a tumultuous tenure with the Jacksonville Jaguars after being selected in the 2nd round of the 2018 NFL draft. He totaled 147 receptions and 2,042 receiving yards in four seasons in Jacksonville, but played in only 43 games and struggled mightily with drops. In a crowded receiver room in Detroit, Chark will need to prove himself early in the season if he still wants a sizable workload when Jameson Williams returns to the field. Williams will begin the year on the reserve/non-football injury (NFI) list, per SB Nation.
Williams tore his ACL in the National Championship game last January, which will force him to miss at least the first month of his rookie campaign. At Alabama, Williams was elite after-the-catch, and combined rare speed with plus-route running to make him a lethal weapon. The young pass-catcher has suffered no setbacks during his recovery process, and figures to play a prominent role in the offense upon his return.
T.J. Hockenson struggled as a rookie, but has put together back-to-back strong seasons as a receiving tight end. Since the beginning of 2020, he has totaled 128 catches, 1,306 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns – making him one of the better safety blankets in football. Hockenson still leaves much to be desired when it comes to blocking, but Detroit will continue to absorb that issue if he keeps making plays down-the-field with his hands.
Offensive Line
Depth Chart: Taylor Decker, Jonah Jackson, Frank Ragnow, Halapoulivaati Vaitai, Penei Sewell
In 2021, Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow missed 21 total games, which kept this unit from reaching its full potential. Returning everyone from this group for 2022, this collection of talent has the opportunity to emerge as the best offensive line in the entire NFL. Decker is an elite pass-blocker, who has improved as a run-blocker in recent seasons as well.
A former first-round draft pick, his floor is exceptionally high. Jonah Jackson was unimpressive as a rookie, but took a major step forward in his sophomore season, finishing 12th out of 80 players at his position in run-blocking, per Pro Football Focus. Entering his third season, Jackson could establish himself as one of the best offensive lineman in football if he improves his pass-blocking. Ragnow has finished in the top-six at his position in three consecutive seasons, and grades well-above average as both a run- and pass-blocker. Halapoulivaati Vaitai is the weakest member of this unit, but should be far from a liability.
There are few teams in the NFL that have an above average right guard as their biggest vulnerability up-front. Penei Sewell burst on to the scene as a rookie in 2021, establishing himself as an elite run-blocker, with the potential to become elite in the passing game. Detroit’s offensive line features three first round picks and two other valuable contributors. If the offense struggles again in 2022, it is unlikely to be a result of losing at the line of scrimmage.
Base 4-3 Defense
Defensive Line
Depth Chart: Charles Harris, Levi Onwuzurike, Michael Brockers, Aidan Hutchinson
Last fall, the Lions ranked 27th in sacks per pass attempt. The front office wasted no time addressing this need during the offseason, selecting Aidan Hutchinson out of Michigan with the second overall draft pick this past summer. Hutchinson was, arguably, the most NFL-ready player in the 2022 draft class, and projects to make an immediate impact for this defense in his rookie campaign.
However, Hutchinson will need to make a massive impact for this group to be effective this season. Michael Brockers and Levi Onwuzurike were two of the worst defensive lineman in football in 2021, and figure to see plenty of snaps again in 2022. Charles Harris is adept at as a pass rusher, but he has never graded as an adequate run defender during his first five years in the league. It is safe to expect more of the same from Harris in Year 6.
Linebackers
Depth Chart: Derrick Barnes, Alex Anzalone, Chris Board
Similar to the defensive line, the Detroit linebacker corps lacks proven, high-level NFL talent. Derrick Barnes was selected in the fourth round of the 2021 draft, but was borderline unplayable during his rookie season – struggling extensively, both as a run defender and against the pass.
Alex Anzalone is coming off of his worst season as a professional, during which he graded 78th out of 86 qualified players at his position, per Pro Football Focus. Chris Board has failed to put together a productive campaign in any of his first four NFL seasons. Unless Detroit’s late-round 2022 draft picks, Malcolm Rodriguez and James Houston, emerge as legitimate starters, this group will produce poor results again in 2022.
Secondary
Depth Chart: Amani Oruwariye, DeShon Elliott, Tracy Walker III, Will Harris
The Lions do not have a single area of strength on the defensive side of the ball. Last fall, Detroit ranked dead-last in the league, allowing 7.65 pass yards per play, and the front office did little during the offseason to improve this lackluster unit. Amani Oruwariye and Will Harris form one of the worst starting cornerback duos in the entire NFL.
Tracy Walker III and DeShon Elliott provide little support over-the-top against the deep ball. This could be one of the worst secondary units in football for the second consecutive season.
2022 Detroit Lions Outlook And Betting Pick
Head Coach Dan Campbell has a sterling reputation, considering that the Lions finished with only three victories and a -142 point differential in his first year in the Motor City. His passionate and emotional press conferences make for good entertainment, but there is still plenty of legitimate concern as to whether he is capable of leading Detroit to their first winning season since 2017 – especially considering the lack of talent on this roster.
Detroit is led on offense by a bottom-tier quarterback, who is unlikely to take advantage of the elite offensive line offering him protection. Other than St. Brown, the wide receiver room has minimal upside until Williams returns to the field from his torn ACL. Every level of the defense promises to be extremely problematic for the second year in a row. The Lions may have earned a soft spot in the hearts of bettors due to their impressive record against-the-spread last fall. However, this group will receive no such affection from their opponents on the field in 2022. Expect another disappointing year from this group – take the under.
- PICK: Detroit Lions under 6 wins (+130, Caesars)