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2022 Green Bay Packers Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Mon 8/29 8:31am PT
Our NFL experts are backing one side of the Green Bay Packers' win total set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Green Bay Packers and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Green Bay Packers finished tied for the most wins in the NFL last season, with 13, but they certainly benefited from exceptionally good luck – ranking 3rd in turnover differential, 6th in winning percentage in games decided by one score, and 8th in fumble recovery percentage. In the offseason, the Packers lost Davante Adams, who commanded over 30 percent of the targets in the passing game when he was on the field.

Yet, this is not the first time during the Aaron Rodgers era that Green Bay has been forced to retool their offense after losing some big names. Let’s take a look at the Packers, unit-by-unit, to see if they have enough remaining on their roster to secure their fourth-consecutive division title.

Green Bay Packers 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Aaron Rodgers, Jordan Love, Danny Etling

Per Pro Football Focus, Aaron Rodgers had only a 2.0 turnover-worthy-play percentage in 2021 (on 612 drop backs). Across his career, Rodgers has only one season in which he has higher than a 3.0 turnover-worthy-play percentage. Rodgers was excellent, once again last season, en route to another Most Valuable Player award.

However, he will certainly have some adjustments to make this upcoming fall with Davante Adams no longer in town. Adams was Rodgers’ favorite target on 3rd down, under pressure, against the blitz, and in the red zone. The veteran signal caller is unquestionably among the elite at his position, but there simply is not a lot of talent around him on the offensive side of the ball heading into 2022. It does not matter if Rodgers can make every throw on the field, if there is no receiver capable of catching a pristinely executed pass.

Consequently, expect Green Bay to throw the ball far fewer times this fall, and for this offense to be tailored much more towards running the football.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, Kylin Hill, Patrick Taylor

Despite having two of the more talented running backs in the NFL, the Packers finished 2021 ranked 20th in rush yards per play.

Splitting touches, A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones combined for 1,602 rushing yards on 358 attempts (4.5 yards-per-carry), but depth was an issue for this group when those two players were not on the field.

Heading into 2022, Green Bay once again has strong run-blocking at each tackle position, but the interior portion of the offensive line could make it difficult for this running game to gain traction against some of the better interior defenses in the NFL.

It has been a while since we have seen Green Bay struggle offensively, but there are some legitimate concerns on this side of the ball heading into the new season.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Allen Lazard, Christian Watson, Sammy Watkins, Robert Tonyan

As mentioned above, Davante Adams was targeted over 30% of the time on pass plays when he was on the field in 2021. His departure is significant, not only because Rodgers loses his favorite weapon, but because Adams was a huge reason that the rest of Green Bay’s gameplan was able to flourish on a weekly basis.

Adams was targeted 43 times on 3rd down, which kept drives alive, and limited the exposure of Green Bay’s mediocre defense. Sammy Watkins was brought into the fray this offseason to join a wide receiver room that also features veterans Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. This unit still has plenty of talent, but it is difficult to argue that the Packers still have a game-changing pass-catcher who is capable of wreaking havoc on opposing defenses. 

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: David Bakhtiari, Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, Royce Newman, Elgton Jenkins

Green Bay’s offensive line finds itself in a precarious situation heading into 2022. David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins are an elite tackle duo in both the run game and in pass protection.

However, health is a major concern for both players. As of this writing, Bakhtiari’s status for Week 1 against the Minnesota Vikings is still uncertain. The veteran left tackle was limited to only 27 snaps in 2020 after tearing his ACL in 2020. Jenkins is also recovering from a torn ACL, and is similarly listed as questionable for Week 1.

Neither Bakhtiari, nor Jenkins, have returned to practice, meaning that neither player has received a single snap with the first string during training camp or the preseason. The potential absence of Bakhtiari or Jenkins could be devastating for an offensive line that is otherwise extremely weak.

Jon Runyan is a capable pass-blocker, but has been abysmal as a run-blocker in his first two NFL seasons. Josh Myers graded 33rd out of 39 players at his position in 2021, per Pro Football Focus, and was one of the worst centers in football when it came to run-blocking.

Royce Newman was worse than league average in both pass protection and in the run game in his rookie campaign. It is easy to see how quickly this unit could go from a strength to a major weakness, depending on the availability of Bakhtiari and Jenkins to begin the year.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Dean Lowry, Kenny Clark, Jarran Reed

Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers allowed more rush yards per play than Green Bay in 2021. Dean Lowry played 718 snaps on the defensive line for the Packers, and finished the year ranked 69th out of 135 players at his position in run defense, per Pro Football Focus.

Kenny Clark was effective as a pass rusher, but also finished outside the top-50 at his position as a run defender last fall. Jarran Reed was brought over from Kansas City during the offseason, but has never had a productive season defending the run during his six-year career. This unit projects to be extremely weak once again in 2022, with very little upside.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Preston Smith, De’Vondre Campbell, Quay Walker, Rashan Gary

If Green Bay’s defense has a strength, it is without question their linebacker corps. Preston Smith and Rashan Gary combined for 18.5 sacks and 17 tackles-for-loss in 2021. The fearsome duo figure to find themselves in opposing backfields quite often again in 2022. De’Vondre Campbell seemingly came out of nowhere last season, finishing the year ranked as Pro Football Focus second-best linebacker, despite not finishing in the top-58 at his position in any of the three previous seasons.

Campbell led the team with 146 total tackles, including six tackles-for-loss. Adding to an already elite unit, the Packers drafted Quay Walker with the 22nd overall selection in this past summer’s draft. Walker proved adept as a pass rusher and in man coverage during his final collegiate campaign at Georgia. He figures to make an immediate impact for the Packers this fall.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Eric Stokes, Adrian Amos, Darnell Savage, Jaire Alexander

Jaire Alexander is the highest-paid cornerback in the NFL, but played only 227 snaps in 2021. Still, Green Bay managed to hold opponents to the fifth-fewest pass yards per play in the entire NFL last fall. Adding a healthy Alexander to this unit is likely to make this secondary even more formidable in 2022.

Adrian Amos has been outstanding in coverage since coming over to Green Bay, and figures to continue being one of the better safeties in the league. Eric Stokes, last year’s first round draft pick, was less than stellar as a rookie, but still managed to finish as an above average cornerback last season.

If Stokes can make a big leap during his sophomore campaign, opponents could find it incredibly difficult to throw the ball against this defense. If there is any concern for Green Bay’s secondary, it is Darnell Savage. Savage shined in his sophomore season, but floundered as a junior, finishing the year ranked 72nd out of 92 players at his position, per Pro Football Focus.

2022 Green Bay Packers Outlook And Betting Pick

Green Bay led the NFL in time of possession last season, which was largely a function of them being able to move the chains consistently on 3rd down to extend drives. Controlling the ball on offense also allowed a mediocre Packers defense to remain on the sidelines for longer stretches of time, ensuring that they were at least rested when they were forced into action.

Green Bay also had a +13 turnover differential, which was achieved with far more luck than skill, not to mention that the Packers had the 6th-best winning percentage of any team in football in games decided by one score.

The loss of Davante Adams, coupled with unavoidable regression to the mean on a number of luck metrics will cause regression this fall. Aaron Rodgers will only be able to do so much to put this team in a position to win games on a consistent basis. The market is sharply priced on Green Bay’s win total, but if looking to bet one way or the other – the smart lean is the under.

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