2022 Honda Classic Golf Odds, Betting Picks at PGA National

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Honda Classic. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Congratulations to Joaquin Niemann for a wire-to-wire victory at the loaded Genesis Invitational.  Niemann made the weekend a difficult watch for faders as he continued to pile on the field until Sunday.  For only a short period, my live Cameron Young ticket looked promising.  My card, otherwise, was in shambles by the end of Friday.  

This week we move on to the 2022 Honda Classic at PGA National.  The field will not have the same firepower but the course will represent a true test for all golfers teeing it up this weekend.  Let’s cover the field, the course, and some golf betting picks for the beginning of the PGA’s Florida swing.  

2022 Honda Classic Odds

At the time of this writing, you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

Well, this field is certainly a downshift from the strength over the last two weeks.  Highlighted by Sungjae Im, Daniel Berger, Louis Oosthuizen, and Brooks Koepka, the field at the Honda Classic does not feature any players from the Top 10 in the World Golf Rankings.  Instead, 5 of the top 25 will tee it up.  

Matt Jones won the event last season.  We will also see Tommy Fleetwood and Shane Lowry for the first time in the United States.  Previous winners, Keith Mitchell, Rickie Fowler, Michael Thompson, and Padraig Harrington will also tee it up.  Can Joaquin Niemann flirt with a back-to-back victory? 

2022 Honda Classic Betting Preview & Picks

• Course: PGA National
• Date: February 23 – 26
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,048
• Greens: Bermuda

PGA National in sunny Florida will play host to the 2022 Honda Classic.  A coastal course, PGA National ranks as the third-hardest course on the PGA Tour.  No wonder the Top Ten in the world take a pass!  

A par 70 course, players will grind the entire weekend to make pars and capitalize on whatever birdie holes are available.  Fifteen of the holes on the course feature a water hazard meant to stifle players and force an abundance of scrambling.  Last season, Matt Jones won with a very uncharacteristic -12 score.  Otherwise, most of the champions over the last ten seasons did not reach double digits under par.  

One of the main reasons scoring is so difficult is the famed Bear Trap.  Holes 15, 16, and 17 have ruined hopes and dreams and taken golf balls – A LOT – over the years.  Per Josh Culp of Yahoo Sports, the field is 4,136 strokes over par since 2007.  1,604 shots have found water in the same time frame in just those three holes.  As mentioned earlier, players will look to take advantage of opportunities while limiting as much damage as possible over this three-hole stretch.

The field will be 144 players with the top 65 players and ties making the weekend.  With water and wind in the defense, will players be able to overcome this test?  Here are a few players I will add to my betting card this week.  

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Brooks Koepka +2200 (BetMGM)

Statistics are going to be very difficult to use to support this choice.  Brooks Koepka, by reputation, could be considered the biggest star in this field.  That said, online betting sites as well as golf enthusiasts, cannot seem to commit Brooks to the super-elite tier of golfers.  Perhaps, a lack of consistency is the main issue.  That said, the potential is there in a very weak field.  

Driving distance helps at the Honda because given the longer hitters can take less of the tee as they endeavor to avoid copious amounts of water.  Brooks is 14th in this field in driving distance and won’t require the use of his driver off of every tee throughout.  

After his strong showing at the Phoenix Open, Brooks was quoted as disappointed by no longer ranking in the Top 25 in the World Golf rankings.  While narrative street is a dangerous walk, I can get behind this one.  We love Brooks at the big events but week after week he finds himself in the periphery.  Ranking sixth on the betting board is evidence enough that his current form does not justify ranking in the elite.  

As we saw in Phoenix, Brooks can bring it when he is motivated and comfortable.  He finished 2nd here in 2019 and has enough history here to be considered a veteran in a less-than-spectacular, young field.  We will start here for a unit.  The listed price is at BetMGM but, at the time of this writing, Bet365 has Koepka boosted to 25/1. Get that while it lasts.  

Jhonattan Vegas +5000  (PointsBet)

Continuing with longer hitters with course experience, we add Jhonny Vegas to our card.  Confidently, Vegas checks more boxes with recent form than Brooks Koepka and comes with some decent course history.  

Vegas is second in driving distance in this week’s field while ranking 8th in SG: Approach.  That feels like a lethal combo considering his experience at PGA National.  He has made five consecutive cuts at this venue with a 4th place finish in 2017.  

Scrambling is a bit of a concern for Jhonny, so, we are counting on him to keep the ball in play off the tee.  With his length, a driver will not be required on many holes.  I think if we are building a card of bombers, Vegas needs to make an appearance.  Let’s take him for a ½ unit.  

Gary Woodland +6500 (DraftKings)

A bombers card will need to feature Gary Woodland, who always looks better off the tee swinging a wood or hybrid with his length off the tee.  The hazards at PGA National will force Gary to play within himself and only take calculated risks.  

Most recently, Woodland played well at Farmer’s but fizzled over the weekend.  We caught glimpses of Woodland making a run.  Besides his length, the lower-scoring environment will dramatically increase the importance of the two Par 5’s.  Given the potential of a single-digit winning score, players must take advantage of their eight opportunities to make birdie.  Woodland ranks second in the field in SG: Par 5.

Given the relative weakness of the field, Woodland slots in as a player with enough course experience to make a run if he can keep the ball in play.  His three T10 finishes came with north of 8 strokes gained from tee-to-green.  I love the price at DraftKings and will punch a half-unit ticket. 

Lee Westwood +8000 (Bet365)

When we get to this range, I am normally just looking for a price that sticks out for a variety of reasons.  Perhaps, the recent form has been great and the price does not match.  In the case of Lee Westwood, course history does not match a player with an 80/1 price tag.  

Now, I know.  He missed the cut last year before spending a couple of week’s playing match play with Bryson Dechambeau during his resurgence.  That, however, was the only cut missed by Westwood over his career at the Honda.  He has three T10 finishes on his resume and will be playing in a pretty weak field.  

His current form is what it is.  At 80/1, I am hoping he finds something and can lean on past experience to get the job done.  He strikes me as a strong T20 type bet given the mismatch of his price versus his experience.  I’ll decide on a prop bet later and add him to my card for ⅜ of a unit.  

2022 Honda Classic Betting Card

* Brooks Koepka was boosted to 25/1 at time of bet.

Last week’s card opened with Patrick Cantlay, Cameron Smith, Will Zalatoris, and Patrick Reed.  After the article was published, by way of some free bets, I added Tony Finau and Xander Schauffele to my card.  After adding Cameron Young live with another free bet at 50/1 (shucks), I spent a grand total of 5.85 units.  Hopefully, this week we find the top of the leaderboard again and add to our total for this season.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +52.90 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.