2022 John Deere Classic: Golf Odds and PGA Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 John Deere Classic. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Kudos to Xander Schauffele for winning a loaded 2022 Travelers Championship.  Schauffele outlasted his Zurich Classic partner, Patrick Cantlay, as well as several other names on Sunday to capture his first official solo victory on tour in quite some time.  Ahead of the Open Championship at St. Andrews, the PGA Tour makes a stop in Illinois for the John Deere Classic.  Due to the schedule as well as outside influences, the field is a bit weaker this week.  Will a young player emerge with a first career victory?  

Let’s start with betting odds. 

2022 John Deere Classic Odds

At the time of this writing –  June 29th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The John Deere Classic:

2021 – Lucas Glover (-19)

2020 – Canceled

2019 – Dylan Frittelli (-21)

2017 – Michael Kim (-27)

2016 – Bryson DeChambeau (-18)

2015 – Ryan Moore (-22)

2014 – Jordan Spieth (-20)

The John Deere Classic finds itself in quite the unique slot for the professional golfing schedule.  A week after the loaded Travelers Championship and two weeks ahead of the Open Championship, it falls to reason that the John Deere Classic would feature a weaker field.  Further, with the LIV Portland event running alongside the event this weekend, several of the second and third-tier golfers are not available.  That said, the field is still full with golfers looking for FedEx Cup points or a first tournament victory.  

Webb Simpson, after a Daniel Berger withdrawal, headlines the field this weekend with his first appearance at TPC Deere Run.  When the second betting favorites are Adam Hadwin and Sahith Theegala, no disrespect intended, we know going in just how strong the field will be.  Steve Stricker withdrew as well as Davis Riley and J.J. Spaun.  Defending champion Lucas Glover is in the field, as well as Jason Day, Maverick McNealy, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout. 

Illinois native, Nick Hardy, sits in the field after his career-best T10 at the Travelers Championship.  Will he make it a weekend to remember?  

2022 John Deere Classic Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Deere Run
• Date: June 30 – July 3
• Par: 71
• Yardage: 7,289 yards
• Greens: Bentgrass

Since 2009, the winning score at the John Deere Classic has been -18 or better.  A classic course, players must go low to contend at this event.  We are looking for birdies in bunches and players who can take advantage of all of the birdie holes.  

A Par 71, there are three Par 5’s – all with birdie rates north of 30%.  The second hole, a 561-yard Par 5 boasts a 50.7% birdie rate.  Par will be a disappointment on this hole.  The back nine features three of the best scoring opportunities, the 10th, and 17th rounding out the Par 5’s as well as the short Par 4 14th hole.  Avoid live betting any first-round leaders that started on the back and didn’t take advantage.  

The course is not very long.  Driving distance isn’t of importance.  Instead, like several of our other traditional courses, placement off the tee is far more important.  We are looking for players that find fairways in a good position and that will dial up their approaches.  

The Par 4’s won’t be killers at this course.  Normally, we see six or more Par 4’s that span over 450 yards.  This week, TPC Deere Run brings only four holes at this length.  The ninth hole is a Par 4 that stretches past 500 yards and consequently will be the toughest hole on the course.  Since we don’t see that many overly long Par 4’s, proximity from 125-150 yards (wedge play) is going to be crucial for our winner.  

Will this be a putting contest?  In 2019, Dylan Frittelli gained 7.5 strokes putting in route to his first tour victory.  Michael Kim gained… wait for it… 13.5 strokes putting when he hoisted the trophy in 2018.  Normally, our top ten is littered with the best putting performances of the week.  We certainly want to take a peek at who has been rolling the ball well as of late.  

Par 5 performance will be crucial.  Make no mistake, the winner of this tournament must take advantage of the three scoring opportunities provided to players each day.  To put together a near twenty-under par performance, players must find birdies and eagles on these holes.

Let’s also factor in SG: Approach, Fairways, SG: ARG, Par 5 scoring, Proximity 125-150, and Par 4 scoring.  Let’s make some picks to start this week’s card.    

2022 John Deere Classic Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Adam Long +3500 (DraftKings)

Leading off this week is our single-unit play, Adam Long.  Long checks many of the boxes we are interested in this week and comes into the week in good form.  

Long ranks in the top ten in this field in the putting and second in good drives.  While his Par 5 performance is not ideal, his back-to-back T25 performances at the RBC Canadian Open and Travelers Championship bring plenty to get excited about.  When we consider the downshift in field strength, I am very interested in Long.  

Long has two made cuts at the John Deere in his career and unlike several of his playing peers, a victory on tour.  Based on his recent form and ability with the flat stick, I like starting here this week on DraftKings.  We will go for a full unit to win 35 at DraftKings Sportsbook.  

John Huh +5000 (PointsBet)

Second, on our list, John Huh comes in with even better form than Adam Long.  Huh boasts three consecutive Top 25’s with a 13th at the Travelers and a 12th at the Charles Schwab.  The field strength this week…  downshift.  

John Huh has been on a quest to match his career highlight, a win at the Mayakoba in 2012 as a tour rookie.  Huh was the top rookie on tour that year and since has plodded along in lesser fields.  He has a spotty past at TPC Deere Run but two consecutive made cuts with a T10 in 2018.  Huh comes in 10th in BOB% and Top 15 with his wedge play.  

With a very weak field, Huh’s Tour experience coupled with recent form is very appealing at a 50/1 price point at PointsBet.  We will add him for 0.7 units.  

David Lipsky +7000 (DraftKings)

David Lipsky checks the boxes in basically everything except on and around-the-green play.  Lipsky sits 6th in SG: Approach, 4th in SG: Par 5, and 9th in BOB Gained.  At this price point, Lipsky feels like a must-add.  

Lipsky broke onto the PGA Tour last season with a stellar T10 at the now-defunct Palmetto Championship.  This season, Lipsky is surely on the rise with T20’s at the Amex, Corales, and the Mexico Open.  The perfect timing of a weaker field and a course that fits seems like a great opportunity to buy at this price.  

At this price, an outright and top finisher feels like a very strong play.  Don’t be surprised if we add a T20 bet on Lipsky before the tournament kicks off on Thursday morning.  For now, we will include him for a half-unit on DraftKings.  

Scott Brown +15000 (Caesars)

When we get this deep on the odds board, we are normally looking for anything that sticks out at us.  

Scott Brown leads the field in BOB Gained.  He is 16th in SG: Par 5 and 14th in wedge play.  Further, Brown finished 4th at this event last season.  

The rest of Brown’s resume reads just like a player at 150/1 would read…  not great.  That said, we could do worse with 0.25 units.  We will add him on Caesar’s and consider him a top finisher bet as well.  

The John Deere Classic Betting Card

Net Units Travelers Championship:  -2.7 units

2022 Profit in Units:  +35.325 units

Good luck this week, everyone.  Check back on Twitter this evening for any additions to my outright betting card.  

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.