2022 Masters Preview: Odds and Golf Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Masters. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

The weekend we wait for all year has arrived.  The 2022 Masters at Augusta National is merely a few days away.  The azaleas, the beauty, pimento cheese, all of the golf, and yes, the sweats all make the beginning of spring one of our favorites weekends of the year.  Past champions will bring nostalgia to the crowd.  Veterans will leverage years of experience to make a run at the green jacket.  Amen Corner will dash the dreams of many.  The Masters is here.  

Let’s start with Masters odds at BetMGM.

2022 Masters Odds

At the time of this writing — April 3rd — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds 40/1 or better.

Here is a list of recent winners at the event.   

• 2021 – Hideki Matsuyama (-10)
• 2020 – Dustin Johnson (-20)
• 2019 – Tiger Woods (-13)
• 2018 – Patrick Reed (-15)
• 2017 – Sergio Garcia (-9)
• 2016 – Danny Willett (-5)
• 2015 – Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2014 – Bubba Watson (-8)
• 2013 – Adam Scott (-9)

J.J. Spaun joined the field at Augusta with his win at the Valero Texas Open.  J.J. was added to my card – will review that later – on Twitter after we published our Valero preview.  Unfortunately, J.J.’s addition is not going to make the waves that will crash through Augusta National this week.  

Tiger Woods.  Yeah, Tiger Woods.  At the time of this writing, it seems that Tiger is going to make a wildly triumphant return at the biggest event of the year.  Tiger spent time practicing at Augusta over the weekend and is scheduled to meet with the media at 11:00 AM EST on Tuesday morning.  Good luck coming up with any narratives that anybody cares about this week at this event.  All eyes will be on Tiger.  

The Masters will feature a 91-man field.  The top 50 players (and ties) after two rounds will make the weekend.  The old rule keeping players around within 10 strokes of the lead was eliminated in 2020 at the fall Masters.  

Something to consider when making betting cards or DFS lineups is that several members of the field are very unlikely to compete.  I don’t expect Sandy Lyle or Jose Maria Olazabal to compete this week nor do I expect any amateurs to make a run at the green jacket.  There are six amateurs in the field.  

Notably, Harris English will not play because of injury.  Phil Mickelson will not play because well, Google it.  Hideki Matsuyama is slated to play and defend his championship but did not play in the WGC Matchplay and withdrew from Valero this week.  Tiger Woods seems poised to play and I am convinced wouldn’t do so unless he felt he could compete.  

Bryson DeChambeau and Webb Simpson both returned from injuries over the past couple of weeks but have not played well.  

Finally, 2022 seems to be the year of the debutant.  Including the amateurs and the newly added J.J. Spaun, 20 players will make their Masters debut.  Before we go on about players not contending without course experience, Will Zalatoris finished runner-up to Hideki Matsuyama last season.  Players like Tom Hoge, Cameron Young, and Sepp Straka continue to play very well this season and should not be completely ignored.  

2022 Masters Course Preview

• Course: Augusta National Golf Club
• Date: April 7 – 10
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,475
• Greens: Bentgrass

Augusta National is 18 holes worth of picturesque, golf majesty.  Each hole named after a plant it features, Augusta keeps updating the course to fit the modern player every year.  A quick visit to the Masters website to review the course is worth a few minutes to familiarize yourself with the layout and some of the history.  

Hitting fairways is not a must because Augusta National does not feature rough.  Holes lines with the various plants and trees and well as pine straw are in play, but landing in the short grass is not as pivotal as doing so at the US Open.  There are various bunkers and a handful of water hazards that will grab players’ attention.  

Speaking of grabbing players’ attention, the famed Amen Corner will likely be a treacherous stretch this year if the current weather forecast shakes out as projected on Monday.  Holes 11, 12, and 13 keep players guessing as the winds blow.  Players can be between a six-iron and a nine-iron on the very fickle 12th hole, as the wind will play an important role.

As for course changes, the 11th was lengthened but the right side of trees was whittled down this year.  So, the hole is longer but there’s more room for the players’ tee shots.  The Par 5 15th hole was also lengthened by another 20 yards or so.  Rory McIlroy was quoted as saying 11 will play tougher than it has in previous years.  

Finally, the greens.  Lightning fast bentgrass greens that feature treacherous undulations.  Make no mistake, the man who puts on the green jacket at the end of this weekend will need to bring an exceptional short game.  Course experience will help players identify where to miss and what level to approach.  The defense at Augusta National besides added length is easily the difficult greens.  Short game will need to be a heavy consideration when coming up with what statistics to use to model.  

2022 Masters Statistical Preview

The Masters is very, very, buttoned-up about everything that happens beyond the gates at Augusta National each year.  Strokes gained data is not easy to come by but the layout of the course can give us some idea of what type of profile our players should have going into the tournament.  

As ever, SG: Approach is supreme.  If there was ever a week to overweight approach, this would be the week.  Players will need to dial in to different tiers of the undulating greens and will likely be tested with wind.  Barring an outlier of a week around the greens, players will need to gain on approach to have success at Augusta National.  

SG: Short Game or some combination of putting and around-the-green is also going to be important.  As mentioned above, getting up-and-down on these undulating greens will require a strong feel around the greens and plenty of imagination.  

SG: Par 5 will be very important considering that the four Par 5’s are the easiest holes on the course.  With all four holes exceeding a 30% birdie rate, players must take advantage of their opportunities to score as they aim to survive the rest of the course.  Hole 13 wil be a must-birdie hole with a 40% birdie rate.  

Finally, length will clearly be important on a course that keeps getting longer without any rough.  The ability to approach greens with shorter-irons to wedges in hand will help players find the right tier on greens.  I will be considering driving distance when trying to profile players.  

Speaking of players, let’s go over the first wave of players making my 2022 Masters betting card.  

2022 Masters Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Xander Schauffele +2400 (PointsBet)

Xander Schauffele will start my card for this year’s Masters.  Recently not drawing as much acclaim, Xander seems to be getting a reputation for not being able to close an elusive win on tour over the last few seasons.  Aside from his Olympic victory, Schauffele last won on tour in 2019 – winning the Sentry Tournament of Champions.  

Personally, the narrative surrounding Xander is a bit much for me.  Winning on tour is not easy.  Schauffele’s resume speaks for itself.  More pertinent this week, Xander boasts a very strong resume at Augusta National throughout his four starts.  A near winner last season and a 2nd place finish in 2019 were the reason bettors and gamblers alike pegged Xander for big success going forward.  

Schauffele will eventually put together a Scheffler-esque run of wins that remind everyone of the potential he brings each week.  While I will not dismiss the likes of Justin Thomas, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, or even Cam Smith, I prefer to start my card each week a bit further down the board.  We will start with Xander for a 1.25-unit bet at PointsBet and build our card from there.  

Sam Burns +5000 (DraftKings)

I am extremely excited about this next pick, maybe more so than Xander.  Sam Burns continues to play at a high level, most recently repeating as winner at the Valspar.  

Burns is one of the 20 debutants hoping to impress at Augusta National.  He is likely the most impressive and qualified to put together a green jacket-worthy performance.  Fifteenth in driving distance, Burns brings the length to take care of the aforementioned important Par 5-scoring opportunities.  He also ranks 10th in the field in SG: Approach and should be able to find the right tier.  

Will he do enough to claim victory?  I worry a bit about his lack of experience at the course.  That said, his all-around game and ball striking lead me to believe he will be in contention on Sunday.  Let’s put ¾ of a unit down on DraftKings.  

Corey Conners +6000 (PointsBet)

Welcome back, Corey.  Conners has not found his way into this article in quite some time.  Last season, normally priced as a mid-tier option on most betting boards, Corey was used often on my betting cards – wagering on him finally finding a good putting weekend to match his superlative approach game.  

Well, that didn’t quite happen.  That said, Conners opened the year as a less attractive option usually carrying a loftier price and not bringing the same approach game he did on tour last season.  However, Conners has found something in his recent form – ranking 12th in approach and 3rd off the tee over his last 12 rounds.  

As always, Conners needs to find a good week on and around the greens to contend.  He brings back-to-back T10 finishes at Augusta over his last two invites.  If he can dial it up with his irons and find the proper landing areas on these undulating greens, I think 60/1 is a good number on Corey this week.  I am going to buy for ⅝ a unit on PointsBet.  

Cameron Young +12500 (FoxBet)

Finally, we close our first run through with another debutant at the Masters.  This is not Mr. Young’s debut appearance in this article, however.  

I am not going to lie.  I am enamored with Young’s off-the-tee game.  Ranking 3rd in SG: OTT, Driving Distance, and Opportunities Gained, Young is bound to take advantage of the Par 5’s at Augusta National.  With hitting the ball out of the rough not a grave concern at Augusta, I don’t mind taking a bombers approach to building out my betting card and DFS lineups.  I will likely keep tilting at this windmill until Young breaks through.  

The prevailing thought is that bombers lack touch around the greens.  Young ranks 34th in the field in strokes gained with short game over his last 36 rounds on tour. Let’s go with 3/8 of a unit on the FOX Bet app.

The Masters Betting Card

As mentioned before, J.J. Spaun made my final card for the Valero at +16000.  As such, the ¼ unit bet brought our season profit total above the 100-unit mark.  That said, this is going to be an expensive week.  Between sports betting and DFS, I will post both my final betting card plus my single entry lineup to Twitter by Wednesday night.  I will likely add a couple of outrights and some first round leader bets.  Until then, thanks for reading and good luck!

2022 Profit in Units:  +102.7 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.