2022 Miami Dolphins Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Miami Dolphins and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

Last season, the Miami Dolphins won their season opener in Foxborough against the New England Patriots, prompting a tremendous amount of hype around Tua Tagovailoa and the rest of the team. Then, they proceeded to lose each of their next seven contests. After that, they won seven games in a row, before splitting the final two games of their regular season. A plethora of offseason changes, both to the roster and the leadership, have generated a lot of buzz in South Beach once again.

Let’s take a look at the Dolphins’ roster before giving our take on their 2022 outlook.

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Miami Dolphins 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Tua Tagovailoa, Teddy Bridgewater, Skylar Thompson

The 5th overall selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, Tua Tagovailoa has not lived up to expectations in his first two years as a professional. As a rookie, he graded 31st overall at the quarterback position per Pro Football Focus, and followed that up with a 25th place finish in 2021. Rather than improvement from his rookie to sophomore campaign, Tagovailoa seemed to regress in a number of key areas. Notably, his turnover-worthy play percentage increased from 3.1% in 2020 to 4.7% last year.

He continued to struggle mightily throwing the ball more than 10 yards down-the-field, with only six touchdowns and eight interceptions on such throws. Still, it is possible that not all of his underwhelming numbers in his first two seasons are solely his fault. There are many fans and a few analysts who felt that Tagovailoa’s skill set was not properly utilized under the former regime, and that new head coach Mike McDaniel could change the career trajectory for the young signal caller. McDaniel received an academic scholarship at Yale, and has been widely respected in NFL circles in various roles in previous seasons. If anyone is going to put Tagovailoa in a position to succeed, it is going to be McDaniel.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert, Sony Michel, Myles Gaskin

Per The Athletic, after being out of the NFL for a few years in the early 2000s, McDaniel returned to the Washington football franchise in 2011 as an assistant, but found himself behind Matt LaFleur and Sean McVay in the coaching room when going over film from the passing game. Looking to make himself more valuable, he asked if he could work with offensive line coach Chris Foerster to learn the system from the offensive line’s perspective. The experience resulted in an unexpected expertise in how to formulate an elite running game.

In 2012, McDaniel was part of a team in Washington that led the league in rushing. In 2016, McDaniel was part of a team in Atlanta that finished sixth in rushing. In 2019 and 2021, McDaniel was part of San Francisco offenses that finished in the top-seven in rushing. Thus, bettors should expect much better results from the running game in Miami in 2022.

Yet, it will not be easy for McDaniel to turn around a unit that finished 31st in rushing a season ago, averaging only 3.55 rushing yards per play. Per Pro Football Focus, none of Miami’s running backs finished the year as a top-35 player at their position. It is going to take some significant brain power to make this part of the offense respectable this fall.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cedrick Wilson Jr., Mike Gesicki

The Dolphins have one of the more talented receiver rooms in football, with the explosive Tyreek Hill joining Jaylen Waddle as the team’s top two pass-catching options. Hill has totaled over 1,000 yards receiving in four of the last five seasons, but it is worth noting that he is going from playing with one of the most talented quarterbacks in the league, to one of the worst quarterbacks in the league.

Waddle managed 1,015 receiving yards in 2021 as a rookie, but it is unlikely that he will see 140 targets again following the arrival of Hill. Mike Gesicki adds a tremendous amount of value to this unit as well, having eclipsed 700 receiving yards in each of the last two years. He caught 73 balls on 112 targets in 2021. If Tagovailoa continues to struggle this fall, it is not going to be due to a lack of offensive weapons.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Terron Armstead, Robert Jones, Connor Williams, Robert Hunt, Liam Eichenberg

Miami’s offensive line was widely criticized last year for underperforming, but they were not as bad as the media portrayed them to be. At the end of the regular season, the Dolphins ranked 19th in sacks allowed, 18th in sacks per pass attempt per NFL GSIS, and did a reasonably good job giving their quarterbacks time to throw. Tagovailoa was kept clean on 68.0 percent of his dropbacks last season, which is not all that bad, considering that Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills was only kept clean for 67.0 percent of his dropbacks.

Much of the pressure that did occur was a result of poor play from the left and right tackle positions. Adding Terron Armstead at left tackle, one of the best pass blockers in football, should go a long way in improving the performance of this unit.  Connor Williams remains the only above average run blocker on the line, but perhaps McDaniel’s new system will help compensate for that deficiency compared to last year’s system.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Zach Sieler, Raekwon Davis, Christian Wilkins

Miami’s defense was superb last year, and a large part of that was due to the defensive line. The Dolphins finished 2021 ranked 7th in sacks per pass attempt and 6th in total sacks recorded. Christian Wilkins was elite against the run and well above average against the pass. Zach Sieler had his best season as a professional, ranking 3rd out of 109 players at his position, per Pro Football Focus.

Unfortunately, one really big hole in a defense can cause a lot of issues. Raekwon Davis was one of the worst players in the entire league in 2021, even counting players beyond his immediate position. The former second round draft pick should be better this fall, but he remains a concern for this unit, and could keep them from being elite in 2022.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Andrew Van Ginkel, Elandon Roberts, Jerome Baker, Emmanuel Ogbah

Andrew Van Ginkel, Jerome Baker, and Emmanuel Ogbah each finished tied for second on the roster last year in tackles-for-loss, with nine. The fearsome threesome return for another year, forming one of the most dynamic linebacker trios in the entire NFL. Yet, similar to the issues on the defensive line, Elandon Roberts could once again cause issues for this part of the defense. Roberts played 696 snaps in 2021, but was extremely underwhelming as a run defender and in coverage. He will need to be better for this group to avoid being exploitable. 

Secondary

Depth Chart: Xavien Howard, Brandon Jones, Jevon Holland, Byron Jones

Xavien Howard followed up an elite 2020 campaign with a still impressive, albeit non-elite 2021 season. Yet, he was still arguably the strongest member of a secondary unit that finished 9th in passing yards allowed per play last season. Byron Jones is a former first round draft selection, but has not performed like a former top draft pick in either of the last two years, and continues to be a liability against premier receivers.

This unit was rarely victimized for long plays in 2021, in large part, due to the play of Jevon Holland, who graded as Pro Football Focus’ fourth-best safety in 2021.  Miami allowed only seven plays of 40-plus yards through the air as a result of his ball-hawking tendencies deep down-the-field. Still, the Dolphins need to find an upgrade for Brandon Jones, who is rarely talked about in a positive light when his name is mentioned. 

Miami Dolphins Betting Pick & Prediction

In 2021, six of Miami’s nine wins came against Davis Mills, Zach Wilson (x2), Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, and Ian Book. One of their wins came against Lamar Jackson on Thursday Night Football, following a game in which the Baltimore Ravens went to overtime only a few days prior.

Against better competition, the Dolphins were exposed as a team with holes at every level of their defense, allowing 35 points to the Buffalo Bills, 45 points to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and 30 points to the Atlanta Falcons. Tagovailoa’s inability to throw the ball effectively more than 10 yards past the line of scrimmage, coupled with what was one of the worst rushing attacks in all of football last year, is unlikely to lead to a high-powered offensive attack.

Miami’s first four games in 2022 are against the New England Patriots, Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and Cincinnati Bengals – all of which could realistically be losses. In December, the Dolphins have a string of five consecutive games against the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo Bills, Green Bay Packers, and New England Patriots, with four of those contests being on the road. It is not overly pessimistic to project a 2-7 or 3-6 record for Miami in those nine games. It could be a down year for football in South Beach. 

• PICK: Miami Dolphins – Under 9 wins (-120, DraftKings)