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2022 Minnesota Vikings Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Mon 8/29 8:55am PT
Our NFL experts are backing one side of the Minnesota Vikings win total line set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Minnesota Vikings and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

Following their second consecutive losing season, which resulted in missing the playoffs for the third time in four years – the Minnesota Vikings relieved Head Coach Mike Zimmer of his duties during the offseason. The front office replaced Zimmer with Kevin O’Connell, who spent 2021 as the offensive coordinator for the Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.

O’Connell inherits a Minnesota roster that has seemingly underperformed their potential by significant margins in recent seasons. Let’s take a look at the Vikings, unit-by-unit, to see if they have what it takes to fight for a postseason berth in 2022 under their new head coach.

Minnesota Vikings 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Kirk Cousins, Sean Mannion, Kellen Mond

Kirk Cousins finished 2021 with 4,221 passing yards and a 33-to-7 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Yet, despite outstanding surface-level numbers, his ability to be a franchise quarterback was still a hot topic of conversation during this past offseason.

It is not hard to see why, considering that Cousins totaled only 87 passing yards in a December matchup against a hapless Chicago Bears secondary, in addition to throwing for only 184 yards on Halloween against the Dallas Cowboys in a narrow defeat. The veteran signal caller continues to put up gaudy statistics, and grades positively on nearly all advanced metrics as well. Cousins has finished with a better than league average passer rating from a clean pocket, under pressure, against the blitz, on third down, and in the red zone in each of the last four years.

Last fall, he had a stellar 21-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio on balls thrown 10-plus yards down-the-field. Looking at the numbers, it is hard to say many negative things about Cousins. Still, he consistently leaves fans and bettors wondering – does he have the intangibles to be the starting quarterback for a Super Bowl team? Playing under an offensive savant in 2022, with no shortage of weapons around him, Cousins’s legacy is on the hot seat heading into his 11th NFL season.  

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Dalvin Cook, Alexander Mattison, Kene Nwangwu, Ty Chandler

Dalvin Cook played only 13 games in 2021, but still managed to finish fifth in the NFL in rushing yards, while recording his third-consecutive season with over 1,100 yards on the ground.

Cook surpassed 1,000 career carries last season, but is still yet to post a season with fewer than 4.5 yards-per-carry. Health has always been an issue for the star running back, but he should be a tremendous value-add to this offense again in 2022 when he is on the field. Minnesota’s run game suffers tremendously when forced to rely on Alexander Mattison and others, which caused the Vikings to finish 19th in rush yards per play last fall. If Cook manages to play a full season, Minnesota’s offensive attack could be one of the best in football.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, K.J. Osborn, Irv Smith Jr. 

Justin Jefferson may not be the best receiver in the NFL, but he is undoubtedly among the elite tier of pass catchers in the league. Jefferson burst onto the scene as a rookie, catching 88 balls for 1,400 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed-up his sensational Year 1 with 108 receptions, 1,616 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns as a sophomore.

Not only does he post gaudy surface-level numbers – the advanced metrics are extremely fond of him as well. Per Pro Football Focus, Jefferson has finished top-four at his position in each of his first two seasons. The arrival of Kevin O’Connell could unlock a truly special season from the young wideout. Jefferson has been so impressive that many people have forgotten to talk about Adam Thielen, who ranks as the 12th-best wide receiver in the NFL across the last five years, per Pro Football Focus.

Thielen is unlikely to replicate his elite 2017 and 2018 seasons anytime soon, but he is still a strong option in the passing game. In 2021, Thielen hauled in 67 catches for 726 yards and 10 touchdowns, despite only playing in 13 games.

He will be a clear second option behind Jefferson in the air attack, but he will be far from an afterthought for this offense. As a rookie, last fall, K.J. Osborn impressed, with 50 receptions, 655 receiving yards, and seven touchdowns.

Osborn’s floor is high, considering that he will get plenty of favorable matchups in the slot again this season, or against inferior defensive backs. There are strong arguments to be made that the Vikings have the most talented wide receiver room in the entire league.

Mike Zimmer used three wide receiver sets at the fifth-lowest rate in the NFL in 2022, but Minnesota figures to increase that percentage dramatically under O’Connell, who ran 1-1 personnel with the Los Angeles Rams at the highest rate of any team in 2021. Expect big things from this unit this fall.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Christian Darrisaw, Ezra Cleveland, Garrett Bradbury, Jesse Davis, Brian O’Neill

At first glance, Minnesota’s offensive line does not appear to be anything to write home about. However, a deeper dive into the big men up-front reveals a unit with plenty of upside in 2022. Christian Darrisaw was outstanding as a run-blocker as a rookie, but struggled mightily in pass protection. Entering his sophomore campaign, he could establish himself as one of the premier left tackles in football if he can help protect Cousins’ blind side more consistently.

Ezra Cleveland is another high draft pick that has excelled as a run-blocker early in his career, but has yet to take the next step in becoming a well-rounded offensive lineman. Still, he had strong individual game performances last year as a pass-blocker, which give fans and the front office hope that there is room for growth in this area of his game as he heads into the third year of his career.

Garrett Bradbury was selected in the first round of the 2019 draft, but has yet to blossom into a star at the NFL level. He has steadily improved as a run-blocker during the early portion of his tenure in Minnesota, but extreme ineptitude as a pass-blocker limits his ceiling significantly. Entering year four, there is little to suggest that he will all of a sudden figure out this part of his game.

The only member of this line who is a true liability is Jesse Davis. Davis is coming off of an abysmal 2021 campaign, in which he finished 79th out of 83 eligible players at his position, per Pro Football Focus. Against elite defensive lines, he could be a sore spot for this group.

Brian O’Neill figures to be a strong contributor as both a run- and pass-blocker in 2022 after another excellent season in 2021. Overall, the Vikings have four first- or second-round draft selections as projected starters for this group. Minnesota’s offensive line has one of the highest floors in the entire league.

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Harrison Phillips, Dalvin Tomlinson, Armon Watts

Last season did not go according to plan for the Vikings’ defensive line. Only the Green Bay Packers, Kansas City Chiefs, and Pittsburgh Steelers allowed more rush yards per play than Minnesota in 2021. Still, there is hope for improvement from this group in 2022. 

Dalving Tomlinson still profiles as one of the better run defenders in football, following a top-20 finish at his position last fall, per Pro Football Focus. Harrison Phillips put together a strong season against the run last year with the Buffalo Bills, and will be a welcomed addition to this unit.

The primary concern here will be the presence of Armon Watts, who has never approached mediocrity, let alone stardom, in the run game. Nevertheless, Minnesota’s defensive line should go from being a liability in 2021 to, at least, serviceable in 2022. The front office deserves credit for addressing a major need during the offseason.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Danielle Hunter, Eric Kendricks, Jordan Hicks, Za’Darius Smith

In 2021, Minnesota’s top pass rusher, Danielle Hunter played in only seven games, but the Vikings still managed to finish 4th in sacks per pass attempt, according to NFL GSIS. Heading into 2022, Minnesota returns Hunter, who totaled 29 sacks in 32 games during the 2018 and 2019 campaigns. This group also added Za’Darius Smith to this unit, who recorded 34.5 sacks across three seasons from 2018 to 2020, before missing all but one game in 2021 due to a back injury that required surgery.

O’Connell’s emphasis on integrating sports science into the offseason training program figures to give both Hunger and Smith their best opportunity to stay healthy for the majority of the year. If the fearsome duo can stay on the field, they could be one of the most dominating linebackers duos in football. Jordan Hicks also offers upside as a pass rusher, following a strong 2021 campaign with the Arizona Cardinals.

Eric Kendricks is far from elite against the run, but should help this unit tremendously in coverage after finishing 10th out of 80 linebackers in coverage grade last fall, per Pro Football Focus. If healthy, this is one of the best linebacker corps in the NFL.   

Secondary

Depth Chart: Patrick Peterson, Harrison Smith, Lewis Cine, Cameron Dantzler

The most glaring weakness for the Vikings last season defensively was in their secondary, finishing 25th in pass yards allowed per play. The front office was clearly well-aware of this issue, spending each of their top two draft picks on this unit this past summer. Lewis Cine was an outstanding tackler in open space during his days at Georgia, and figures to carry that skillset with him to the NFL.

Unsurprisingly, Cine was used in the box quite frequently during his final college campaign, with an occasional assignment in the slot. He will be a major upgrade at the position for Minnesota in his rookie year. Andrew Booth Jr. is likely to get a lot of work at cornerback as the season progresses. Patrick Peterson is currently listed as a starter, but Peteron has not had a productive NFL season since 2018, and seemingly declines more with each subsequent year. Booth Jr. is capable of transforming this unit from good to great if he finds his groove in year one.

Cameron Dantzler has been nothing short of spectacular since being drafted in the 3rd round in 2020. Dantzler has already proven that he can elite defending the run when necessary. Any improvement in coverage could catapult him to be one of the better overall cornerbacks in the league.

Harrison Smith has been one of the better safeties since entering the league in 2012, and has one of the highest floors of any player at any position. This group has a unique blend of aging stars and top-tier draft picks, which could prove to be a dynamic combination by the middle of the season.            

2022 Minnesota Vikings Outlook And Betting Pick

Minnesota had no shortage of weaknesses last season, but the front office did a fantastic job addressing needs before coming back for the 2022 campaign. New head coach Kevin O’Connell figures to unlock far more explosive plays from this offense, using three wide receiver sets far more frequently than Mike Zimmer did in 2021.

Heavy investments on the defensive line and in the secondary during free agency and the draft promise to turn the Vikings into a respectable, if not feared, defense this fall. If Minnesota can beat teams on their schedule that they should beat, this group should have little trouble winning nine games – and there is potential for far more.

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