Sign In Get the App $ $

2022 New Orleans Saints Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Thu 9/1 10:31am PT
Our NFL experts are backing one side of the 2022 New Orleans Saints win total set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 New Orleans Saints and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

In 2021, the New Orleans Saints managed to win nine games, despite rotating through Jameis Winston, Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book at quarterback.

None of the four signal callers who started a game for New Orleans last fall accounted for even 40 percent of the total pass attempts that the team had for the year. 

Looking ahead to 2022 a more stable quarterback room, the return of Michael Thomas, and the addition of key players in the draft should have Saints’ fans optimistic for a major step forward in the standings.

If there is any concern, it is due to the fact that this will be the first time since 2012 that Sean Payton will not be head coach of this football team. Let’s take a look at this roster unit-by-unit, before making any determinations about what should be expected from this franchise in the post-Payton era..

New Orleans Saints 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Ian Book

Last fall, Jameis Winston was on his way to his best season as an NFL starting quarterback. After throwing 30 interceptions in his final year with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Winston underwent corrective LASIK eye surgery to fix his vision. The result was a sterling 14-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio through the first seven games of the 2021 campaign, before a knee injury prematurely ended his comeback story. In those seven contests, Winston posted a better than league average passer rating from a clean pocket, under pressure, against the blitz, on 3rd down, and in the red zone.

He excelled to a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws less than 20 yards from the line of scrimmage. The return of a healthy Michael Thomas, and the addition of Jarvis Landry and Chris Olave to the receiver room could give Winston even more to work with in 2022. There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the Saints passing attack this fall with Winston under center.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram II, Tony Jones Jr., Dwayne Washington

Alvin Kamara is facing two battery-related charges, but his legal case has continued to be pushed back on the calendar – making it less likely that he is forced to deal with a suspension during the 2022 season.

If Kamara is on the field, he is a tremendous asset for this offense. In his first five NFL campaigns, Kamara has averaged 4.6 yards-per-carry, in addition to averaging 652.6 receiving yards per season. His production as a receiver dropped-off last season in his first year without Drew Brees, but that was likely a function of the lack of stability at the quarterback position.

A healthy Winston should keep Kamara plenty busy as a pass-catcher in the backfield. Even if Kamara is forced to miss games this fall, this unit is still capable of producing. Mark Ingram II and Tony Jones Jr. combined for 402 rushing yards and 167 receiving yards in a limited role in 2021. 

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Michael Thomas, Jarvis Landry, Chris Olave, Adam Trautman

Michael Thomas was, arguably, the most productive receiver in the NFL from 2016 to 2019, totaling 5,512 receiving yards, 470 catches, and 32 touchdowns. However, an injury suffered mid-way through the 2020 campaign bled into 2021, leaving major question marks about his ability to return to his previous level of contributions. Reports from training camp indicated that Thomas looked like his old-self, but a hamstring injury late in the preseason has clouded his availability for Week 1. Expectations should be tempered for the former star, but the upside is certainly enormous if he manages to play a majority of snaps for New Orleans in 2022.

Adding to the upside of this group, the Saints drafted Chris Olave with the 11th overall selection in this past summer’s draft. At Ohio State, Olave was an extremely polished route-runner, with exceptional speed and great hands – evident by his 4.9 percent career drop rate, per Pro Football Focus. Olave might not immediately ascend to stardom at the NFL level, but his floor is incredibly high for a rookie wideout.

Former LSU standout Jarvis Landry returns to his home state for the 2022 campaign after signing with the Saints during the offseason. Landry has been slowed by injuries in each of the past two seasons with the Cleveland Browns, but appears to be the healthiest that he has been since 2019 – during which he caught 83 balls for 1,174 receiving yards. Even if Landry is 75 percent of his former-self, he is a valuable addition to this unit.   

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: James Hurst, Andrus Peat, Erik McCoy, Cesar Ruiz, Ryan Ramczyk 

If the Saints offense flounders this fall, it is going to be a result of the offensive line. The loss of All-Pro left tackle, Terron Armstead did not appear to be reason for panic after the organization was able to draft his replacement, Trevor Penning with the 19th overall selection in this past summer’s draft. However, Penning tore a ligament in his foot during New Orleans’ preseason finale, which will require surgery – keeping him sidelined indefinitely. In his place, James Hurst will step into an expanded role. Hurst has improved in recent seasons, but still profiles as a below 50th percentile run blocker, and only slightly above average in pass protection, at best. Andrus Peat played only 303 snaps in 2021, and has not posted a positively graded year since 2017.

Erik McCoy burst on the scene as a rookie in 2019, but has regressed as both a run- and pass-blocker in subsequent seasons. Cesar Ruiz was drafted with the 24th overall selection in 2020, but has yet to live up to his pre-draft evaluations. Last fall, he finished 56th out of 82 guards in Pro Football Focus’ grading system. At right tackle, Ryan Ramczyk is the only member of this group with an elite floor heading into 2022. This offensive line will need to see major improvements from other positions if they want to win the line of scrimmage on a regular basis. 

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Cameron Jordan, Shy Tuttle, David Onyemata, Marcus Davenport

New Orleans promises to have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL this season. Cameron Jordan has consistently been one of the most elite players at his position in every year since 2015, and there is little to suggest that his production will fall-off in 2022. David Onyemata is coming off of back-to-back elite campaigns in both the run game and as a pass-rusher. If there is any concern with Onyemata, it is that he played only 11 games in 2021 and has not played more than 15 games since 2018. Shy Tuttle failed to record a sack last fall, but made up for his lack of pass-rushing prowess by being one of the league’s best interior defenders against the run.

Marcus Davenport has been exceptional in his first four NFL seasons, after he was drafted 14th overall in the 2018 draft. Similar to Onyemata, the only fair criticism against him is his lack of availability. Davenport has never played more than 13 games in a season, and has not played more than 11 contests since 2019. Health is the only thing that could keep this unit from being elite in 2022. 

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Pete Werner, Demario Davis, Kaden Elliss 

New Orleans has been one of the best defenses in the league across the last five years, and a large reason for that has been the play of their linebackers. Demario Davis has been nothing short of outstanding since 2017, and finished 2019 as Pro Football Focus’ top-graded linebacker in the entire NFL.

Pete Werner put together an excellent rookie year in 2021, finishing as the second-best linebacker in football against the run, per Pro Football Focus’ grading system. Kaden Elliss is, by far, the weakest member of this unit, but still profiles as a capable run defender, even if his play in coverage leaves much to be desired. Overall, this is one of the better linebackers corps in football.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Paulson Adebo, Tyrann Mathieu, Marcus Maye, Marshon Lattimore 

Marshon Lattimore had a down year in 2020, but responded with an impressive bounce-back 2021 campaign, in which he finished 10th out of 116 players at his position, per Pro Football Focus’ grading system. The former first round draft pick has elite upside once again in 2022, and should be able to make life difficult for opposing wide receivers each week. Paulson Adebo was a liability on the other side of the field last fall, but there is reason to be optimistic about his development heading into his sophomore season.

Adebo was a third-round pick in 2021, and has potential to grow into a much better player than he showed as a rookie. Tyrann Mathieu’s reputation unquestionably outshines his production, but he is still an above average safety – particularly in coverage. Marcus Maye was limited to only six games last year for the New York Jets, but had been elite from 2018 to 2020. If he can return to his peak production levels, the Saints could have one of the better secondary units in the league.

2022 New Orleans Saints Outlook And Betting Pick

New Orleans has the potential to be elite at all three levels of their defense in 2022, which should allow them to be competitive against every single opponent on their schedule this fall. After rotating through four quarterbacks in 2021, a healthy (and vision-corrected) Jameis Winston has the potential to be a top-10 quarterback, surrounded by no shortage of talent with Michael Thomas, Chris Olave, and Jarvis Landry in the wide receiver room.

Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram are an above average running back tandem, and both are capable pass-catchers out of the backfield. There are some concerns on the offensive line that could keep this team from ascending to be a legitimate contender, but not enough concerns to scare bettors away from the over on their regular season win total. Saints fans have plenty of reasons to be optimistic in Year 1 of the post-Sean Payton era.

•