2022 Buffalo Bills Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Buffalo Bills and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

If not for being on the wrong side of the coin toss in overtime against the Kansas City Chiefs, the Buffalo Bills could have been remembered much differently last season. Yet, in many ways, it seemed a fitting end to a campaign riddled with incomprehensible variance, including a 9-6 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Despite their flaws and lack of consistency, Buffalo still managed to end the regular season with 11 wins and the best point differential (+194) in the entire league. Hopes are high once again in 2022.

Let’s take a look at their roster unit-by-unit before making any determination about how they might fare this fall.

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Buffalo Bills 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Josh Allen, Case Keenum, Matt Barkley

After his first two seasons, during which he totaled a 30-to-21 touchdown-to-interception ratio, Josh Allen did not appear to be a lock to play past his rookie deal, let alone be a franchise cornerstone.

However, an 87-to-26 touchdown-to-interception ratio across his subsequent two seasons not only made him the quarterback of the future in Buffalo – it has made him one of the league’s premier talents under center, landing him a 6-year, $258 million contract that will keep him with the team through the 2028 campaign. Though some of Allen’s statistical improvements can be attributed to skill development, an underrated part of his growth has been the ability of the Bills’ coaching staff to put Allen in a position to succeed. 

*Per Pro Football Focus

In 2018 and 2019, Allen was rarely used in play action, and frequently threw the ball deep down-the-field, which resulted in a high number of turnover worthy plays, and a poor Expected Points Added/Play (EPA/P), per Pro Football Focus. In 2020 and 2021, Allen reduced his aDOT and deep pass percentage, resulting in far more success as a signal caller. 

The departure of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, the new head coach of the New York Giants, creates some concern for Allen’s production in 2022. Yet, Ken Dorsey, the new offensive coordinator in Buffalo, is far from an unfamiliar face. He has been the quarterback coach for Allen for each of the previous three seasons. Dorsey was also the quarterback coach for Cam Newton in 2015 when he won the league’s Most Valuable Player award en route to a Super Bowl appearance. Buffalo’s passing attack should be lethal once again this fall.

Running Back

Depth Chart: Devin Singletary, James Cook, Zack Moss, Duke Johnson

Last year, Devin Singletary and Zack Moss combined to form one of the worst running back tandems in all of football, totaling only 4.3 yards-per-carry on the ground. Neither Singletary nor Moss were particularly effective as a pass-catcher out of the backfield either.

Unsurprisingly, the front office invested in this position in the offseason, selecting James Cook out of Georgia in the 2nd round of the NFL Draft. In college, Cook averaged over six yards per attempt, and projects as a sure-handed receiver at the next level. Cook could be a dangerous weapon for Allen behind the line of scrimmage, adding to an already potent passing attack. If Buffalo unleashes Cook in the running game, this unit could take a major step forward in 2022.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Jamison Crowder, (TE) Dawson Knox

Everyone expected Stefon Diggs to perform well with Allen throwing him the football. Still, it is difficult to imagine that many people saw back-to-back 100 reception seasons and 2,760 receiving yards for the star wideout in his first two years in Buffalo.

Perhaps even more surprising, Gabriel Davis has emerged as a valuable complement at the position after being selected in the 4th round of the NFL Draft in 2020. In his first two seasons, Davis has amassed 70 receptions, 1,148 receiving yards, and 13 touchdowns. Following an outstanding postseason this past winter, Davis has plenty of upside heading into this fall. This unit projects as a strength once again for this roster.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Dion Dawkins, Rodger Saffold III, Mitch Morse, Ryan Bates, Spencer Brown

Last season, the Buffalo offensive line evaded much criticism because of the mobility of Josh Allen. At the end of the regular season, the Bills allowed the second-fewest sacks in the entire NFL, and they ranked 6th-best in rushing yards per carry. Yet, outside of Dion Dawkins, this offensive line does not project well for this upcoming fall from purely a talent perspective.

Spencer Brown, taken in the 3rd round of last year’s draft, graded reasonably well as a run-blocker, but finished 74th out of 80 eligible offensive lineman in pass protection, per Pro Football Focus. Dawkins, Rodger Saffold, Mitch Morse, and Ryan Bates are each competent in pass protection, but this is a unit that is likely going to need special play out of the backfield to cover up for more than a few deficiencies in the run game.

Bills Defense (Base 4-3)

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Greg Rousseau, Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones, Von Miller

Buffalo’s defense ranked only 12th in total sacks recorded in 2021, but they ranked 6th in sacks per pass attempt, according to NFL GSIS. This offseason, the Bills added Von Miller, Shaq Lawson and DaQuan Jones, each of whom only figure to make this group better heading into the new season.

Last year, Miller was exceptional against both the run and the pass. This unit was certainly not a weakness last fall, finishing 11th in rush yards allowed per play and 1st in pass yards allowed per play. Adding even more talent to this front-four is going to cause opposing offensive coordinators restless quite a few headaches in 2022.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, Marquel Lee

Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds, and Marquel Lee are a middle-tier linebacker corps. Milano was 3rd on the roster in total tackles in 2021, including three sacks and a team-leading 15 tackles-for-loss. He once again figures to spend plenty of time in the backfield of the opposing offense, wreaking havoc. Edmunds led Buffalo with 108 total tackles last year, and was one of the better linebackers in all of football against the run, despite struggling mightily in coverage. A former first round draft pick, Edmunds still has room to grow. Lee is the primary weakness in this group, having struggled in all areas of the game last season. 

Secondary

Depth Chart: Jordan Poyer, Micah Hyde, Kaiir Elam

Unquestionably, the biggest concern for Buffalo on the defensive side of the ball in 2022 is their secondary. Levi Wallace, who led this group in passes defended last year, left in free agency. Though Tre’Davious White was inconsistent for much of 2021, he still played 664 snaps, and graded as one of the better cover cornerbacks in the league, per Pro Football Focus. He is likely to miss the beginning of the season recovering from a torn ACL. The question marks surrounding this unit led the front office to invest a first round draft pick in cornerback Kaair Elam out of Florida, hoping to create more stability.

Still, a rookie being asked to handle a starter workload comes with its own question marks, particularly a cornerback that struggled to defend without getting flagged during his final season in college.

Bills Best Bet & 2022 Prediction

In 2021, the Bills had only one loss by more than seven points, including the postseason. Each of their 11 regular season victories, in addition to their playoff win against the New England Patriots, came by double-digits, proving the explosiveness that this roster possesses when healthy and focused.

Heading into 2022, Buffalo figures to once again be one of the elite teams in the league on the offensive side of the ball, led by MVP-candidate Josh Allen under center. If the running game improves at all, this could be the league’s top-scoring offense. Defensively, the concerns in the secondary are counterbalanced by gains on the defensive line. Expect the Bills to flourish, and for them to win at least 12 games, if they can turn a few of those close losses from last year into victories this year.

• PICK: Buffalo Bills – Over 11.5 wins (-130) on BetMGM