2022 PGA Championship Preview: Expert Picks And Predictions (5/18/22)

Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 PGA Championship. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Major season is upon us with the second major tournament of the year coming this weekend.  The PGA Championship moves to Southern Hills Country Club in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  Scottie Scheffler looks to make it back-to-back as Tiger Woods eyes returning to contention.  Jordan Spieth looks to build off recent form and capture the career Grand Slam.  The storylines will be swirling all week. Let’s start with PGA betting odds before previewing the course and starting our betting card.  

2022 PGA Championship Odds

At the time of this writing –  May 17th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners at the PGA Championship:

• 2021 – Phil Mickelson (-6)
• 2020 – Collin Morikawa (-13)
• 2019 – Brooks Koepka (-8)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (-16)
• 2017 – Justin Thomas (-8)
• 2016 – Jimmy Walker (-14)

Keep in mind, these championship events occurred at other courses. That said, the PGA Championship normally requires a top player in strong form. Phil Mickelson’s victory last year was an anomaly.  Mickelson withdrew from the tournament a few days ago. 

The field will contain 156 players with the top 70 and ties making the cut. The PGA Championship will be a slightly easier cut to make despite the level of player in the field. The field features 20 or so PGA teaching professionals that qualified for the event.  Further, past champions like John Daly will tee it up. Roughly 20-30 players are not in contention to win this week.  

Sungjae Im was forced to withdraw after catching COVID overseas. Harris English and Paul Casey are both not playing in the event. At the time of this writing, we await word on Bryson DeChambeau and his ailing hand. Bryson seems ready to play based on his social media but we will certainly keep our eyes on notifications from the tour.  

Of course, I would be a fool to not mention TigerMania 2.0 at the PGA Championship.  We might not quite see the level of mania around Tiger that we witnessed at Augusta National.  That said, plenty of people will still be affixed to every Tiger Woods swing, reaction, expression, etc…  

Let’s take a look at the information available about Southern Hills Country Club.  

2022 PGA Championship Betting Preview

• Southern Hills Country Club is long…  very long. 

Exceeding 7,500 yards, the course is only a Par 70. The Par 5’s and Par 3’s are long. Everything is long. While long is a relative term for PGA Tour golfers, 7,500 yard with only two Par 5’s is tremendous.  If we filter this week’s field for SG: Total on courses longer than 7,400 yards, Dustin Johnson ranks first.  Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy follow DJ. 

• The greens are very small. 

SG: Approach is always important on the PGA Tour. Mentioning weighting this statistic heavily is not a novel idea.  With that said, though, we will need to find players who either are very long off the tee or play exceptionally with their long irons. There are also plenty of bunkers, as sand-save ability will be factored in for sure.

• The greens are bentgrass.

Very small, and will require plenty of imagination. Since players will not hit every green in regulation, around-the-green game will be very important this weekend.  The greens are not small and surrounded by rough.  Instead, the greens feature plenty of fronts with fairway collection areas that will require a different type of short game.  If, and when, players miss the green, they will be expected to get up and down from north of 40 yards when the ball inevitably rolls down the fairway or off the back of the green.  

• Proximity to the hole from longer than 200 yards will be important. 

Seven Par 4’s exceed 450 yards.  Both Par 5’s are north of 630 yards.  Finally, three of the Par 3’s are north of 200 yards.  There is no way to escape it.  Players will need to play well from this range to be in contention this week.  

• The smaller greens coupled with the importance of short game.

This means we can emphasize different putting distances.  Assuming players are chipping or pitching off greens and able to leave themselves inside of 10 feet, we should consider how well players putt from inside that range.  A catch-all, SG: Putting stat probably will not play as much given how fast these greens will be.  

• Tiger Woods won the last PGA Championship at Southern Hills in 2007. 

Prepare to hear that at least five million times this week.  That said, the course was redesigned in 2019.  I am not sure results from back then will correlate to this iteration of the course.  

2022 PGA Championship Betting Picks

Let’s start my card.  Prior to writing this article, I made some bets when I came across odds that caught my eye.  I will offer those bets with the odds I bought and the current best odds available.  

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Jordan Spieth +2000 (BetMGM)

I was able to bet 1.5 units on Jordan over the weekend at 25/1 on another sports betting site.  Those odds are long gone as Spieth’s recent form makes it impossible for betting sites to take that much action on the Texan.  Spieth needs the PGA Championship to complete the career Grand Slam.  He comes in off of a win at RBC Heritage and a solo-second at the Byron Nelson.  

Spieth doesn’t strike us as a great OTT or Approach player but has gained in both categories over his last eight starts except the Masters and the Players.  I don’t worry too much about either event as weather played a big role and Spieth has a great track record of managing the green complexes of Augusta National.  If creativity around the green is going to be tested, I don’t want to avoid Jordan.  I don’t bet him often but definitely feel better when he is on the card.  Now I don’t have to scoff every time he chips in off the green or drains a greenside bunker shot.  

We start here with Spieth as our big horse for the week.  I think he completes his Grand Slam with a master class around the greens.  The 20/1 number might be a bit steep but I don’t hate it.  

Hideki Matsuyama +3300 (ScoreBet)

This bet might be my favorite for the week.  I was able to find Hideki at +5500 on WynnBet over the weekend for a ¾ of a unit.  The odds didn’t last long as most golf bettors likely attacked this line at numbers that I can’t imagine laying down.  

Injury concerns seem to be in the past as Hideki closed his Byron Nelson with a 62 on Sunday to vault into contention.  Matsuyama leads the field in Proximity over 200 yards and is 6th in SG: Approach over his last 36 rounds.  This was a no brainer at 55/1.  

At 33/1 or worse, we might need to pause for a bit.  This number places him right next to Dustin Johnson and Xander Schauffele – he who closed the Byron Nelson with a flurry of birdies over the weekend.  

I am not sure I would jump on this number but love the 55/1 I placed days ago.  Hideki has the necessary ability off the tee, though, to set up plenty of opportunities.  

Tony Finau +5500 (FanDuel)

Just another bet for number’s sake…  I saw an 80/1 on Tony with a half-unit free bet to spare and thought his length justified his addition.  

After crunching numbers, I don’t really regret it.  We know that Finau is going to rival anyone off the tee.  By some accounts, the rough at Southern Hills could be a bit easier to deal with given the temperatures are only just starting to kick up.  If Tony can really let it fly, his approach game should be just enough to give him plenty of opportunities.  

That said, I am quite worried about Tony’s game around the green.  The current 55/1 number is maybe a bit too short for those worries.  The 80/1 mitigates that a bit and gives me just a bit of extra upside if Finau can hit plenty of the small greens.  

I am in for my old number but I don’t think I can handle this number.  I am over-the-moon with the previous price.  

Corey Conners +6600 (BetMGM)

Here is my first of what feels like two auto-bets.  Full disclosure, I refuse to miss out on the really big breakthrough victory for Corey Conners.  Admittedly, Bet365 made an offer I couldn’t refuse.  

At a boosted 80/1, this was a no-brainer for me.  So much so that I was a little upset I saw the boost when I logged in.  It’s almost like Bet365 knows just how much I want to bet Corey and sweat the hole-in-one.  

Jokes aside, Conners is a ball striking machine.  He is seventh OTT, 21st in approach, and 15th in proximity north of 200 yards.  Avert your eyes when he is off the green…  or on it.  I am hoping the smaller greens and a smoking hot week with the irons might justify this elevated price.  

At the time of this writing this price is still available.  I might still be convinced at the BetMGM 66/1 tag but the 80/1 was automatic.  

Cameron Young +8000 (PointsBet)

Speaking of autobets, I refuse to miss the ascendancy of Cameron Young.  Young will be on my card until he wins.  I think that win is coming sooner than later.  

While my 120/1 boosted bet on SugarHouse is fueled by narrative adoration, there is plenty of merit to including Young at big odds.  Young is 3rd OTT, 5th in driving distance, first in Par 4’s 450-500 yards, and top 50 in all of the requisite short game statistics.  His first victory is coming.  

Cam scared me at the RBC Heritage – opening as the first round leader and leaving me with so much FOMO.  At that moment, I decided I am in until he gets the job done.  At 80/1, I would still be in.  Anything lower, I would at least need to pause.  

PGA Championship Betting Card

Unfortunately, the Byron Nelson Classic continued our losing streak to the tune of 3.375 units.  The course is always going to offer a birdiefest; your golfers will need to put together four excellent rounds to win.  Joaquin Niemann flirted with the top of the leaderboard until Sunday when he somehow managed to be one of only four golfers to go over par.  Not great!  

The opening card starts with 3.5625 units. The PGA Championship card will be larger than normal so a couple of looks at the old Twitter machine for updates by Wednesday night will be necessary.  I could see myself adding some finishing positions and prop bets depending on what promotions manifest themselves by Wednesday night.  Until then, good luck.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +74.3125 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.