2022 THE PLAYERS Championship Odds and Golf Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Players Championship. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Scottie Scheffler endured the war of attrition at Bay Hill to gain his second victory on tour this season.  Aside from the money, Scheffler moved into the Top 5 in the OWGR after just edging the likes of Viktor Hovland and Billy Horschel on Sunday at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.  The conditions were brutal over the weekend – which is perfect because The Players Championship this weekend could feature the worst weather thus far during the 2022 PGA Tour season.  

Often dubbed the fifth major, The Players features the best field in golf.  No amateurs will qualify.  No open qualifiers.  No exemptions.  Nothing.  Simply, the best players in the world will all come together at TPC Sawgrass to vie for a very prestigious – and lucrative – prize.   

Let’s start – as always – with betting odds.  

2022 Players Championship Odds

At the time of this writing — March 7th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

144 players will tee it up this week at TPC Sawgrass.  The top 65 and ties will make the weekend.  The Players Championship is notorious for inexplicable cuts due to variance provided by course difficulty as well as a ton of water.  With the weather projected to be wet and windy, anyone in the field is at risk of missing the cut.  Rory McIlroy and Webb Simpson are both previous winners of this tournament and have also missed the cut over their last five starts.  

Bryson DeChambeau withdrew from the event because of his current injury status.  At the time of this writing, keep your eyes peeled for news on Jason Day (death in family) and Webb Simpson (injury) and whether or not they will hold their spot.  

Rickie Fowler is notably not in the field because of his recent poor form despite winning the event more than five years ago.  Phil Mickelson is not playing because, well…  a simple Twitter or Google search would suffice.  

Here is a list of recent winners and their scores at the event.  

• 2021 – Justin Thomas (-14)
• 2019 – Rory McIlroy (-16) 
• 2018 – Webb Simpson (-18)
• 2017 – Si Woo Kim (-10)
• 2016 – Jason Day (-15)
• 2015 – Rickie Fowler (-12)
• 2014 – Martin Kaymer (-13)
• 2013 – Tiger Woods (-13)

Scoring is possible at this event but the all-around game of every golfer will be tested.  Players must keep the ball in play to avoid crooked numbers with the high volume of water around the course.  Speaking of which, let’s talk about TPC Sawgrass and key statistics I am looking at when building my card this week.  

The Players Championship Betting Preview

• Course: TPC Sawgrass
• Date: March 10 – 13
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,189
• Greens: TifEagle Bermuda

When you hear The Players Championship, you will likely think about the iconic 17th hole.  A par three that will test the physical, and mostly mental fortitude of each player.  Many balls will land in the water.  Many golfers will opt to try again.  Many golfers will fail again.  If the weather is as projected, this hole will get plenty of play on television broadcasts this weekend. 

As for the rest of the course, length is not a concern. This Pete Dye design checks in just below 7,200 yards and features water on 17 of the 18 holes. 7,200 yards is not as long given the course is a Par 72. Greens are TifEagle Bermuda grass and are some of the largest on tour.  Getting up and down and lag putting will be key components of a winning player’s game this week.  

Par 5 scoring will be paramount given the difficulty of several other holes.  The very short 12th hole yields plenty of birdies playing at around 300 yards with a birdie rate of 27.2%.  In all, these five holes yield the most birdies on the course.  Players must take advantage.  

As for the more difficult, the course features five Par 4’s between 450-500 yards.  Consequently, these five holes are five of the six most challenging on the course.  Pars will be welcome as players look to find their birdies on the aforementioned easier fives and short Par 4.  

Driving distance is not very important.  Remember, Bryson was able to make a run last year mostly clubbing down off the tee.  Instead, finding fairways will be crucial.  While the rough at Sawgrass will not be anywhere near as penal as that of Bay Hill, approaching from the short grass will help golfers with distance control and spin.

For the reasons above, I am prioritizing a few metrics when building my betting card for this week.  SG: Approach is supreme this week with an emphasis on fairways gained, Par 5 scoring, Par 4: 450-500, and bogey avoidance.  Those five categories will be weighted the most when working with models for this tournament.  

While course history is normally a factor, the inherent variance of TPC Sawgrass mitigates the importance of past form.  Especially when betting outrights, missing the cut at this event here and there will not bring a full stop to placing any bets.  

Finally, please be sure to check weather reports repeatedly throughout the week – especially after tee times are released.  Depending on when storms are in the forecast, we might be looking at an edge with weather because of tee times. Let’s take a look at the beginning of this week’s card.  

2022 Players Championship Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Patrick Cantlay +2500 (FanDuel)

Well, well, well…  What a surprise?  One of the better all-around golfers in the field, we used Cantlay previously this year.  While not grabbing a win, Cantlay has played pretty well throughout the season.  Since course form is not one of my priorities, I will gloss over his missed cut last season at TPC Sawgrass.

Cantlay ranks first in the field in Par 5 scoring with top 20 ranks in putting, bogey avoidance, and Par 4: 450-500.  Without a doubt, he has the game to be successful at this course.  After a rough start to his 2021 season, he proceeded to clean up during the home stretch.  

My favorite part about this play is the price.  While I think many of the golfers listed above Patrick in pricing are justified, I just don’t think his chances at winning are that much worse than that group.  I will start here for 1.25 units on FanDuel Sportsbook.  FanDuel, at the time of this writing, is featuring several prices that are far more attractive than competitors.  Stay tuned.  

Brooks Koepka +4800 (FanDuel)

Price play alert.  I made this bet before looking at any statistics.  I missed a 50/1 earlier in the day on Brooks.  When I saw that FanDuel had this price, I couldn’t pass it up.  

Many seem to think Brooks is having a disappointing season.  Perhaps a consequence of his reputation as a big-game hunter, Brooks has not landed a big win since last season’s Phoenix Open.  His inconsistency is evident with a simple glance at his 2022 season. 

With that said, Brooks has flashed plenty of upside with two top 20’s over his last few events.  His missed cut at the Genesis was not very flattering but his performance at the very challenging Honda Classic was very encouraging.  He gained tee-to-green but struggled with the putter.  When he finished third at the Phoenix Open this season, he gained six strokes on the green.  

At this rate, the only question for me is whether or not I want to play Brooks in my big DraftKings lineup.  As for a bet, 48/1 is just too juicy.  Book this one for ⅝ of a unit on FanDuel.  

Louis Oosthuizen +6000 (Bet365)

Louis, Louis, Louis…  Can we land our first win in the states?  My gut is telling me no.  The stats keep tempting me, though.  

In his last start, Louis lost 4.8 strokes on approach.  Uncharacteristic of Oosty, Louis hadn’t lost strokes on approach since February of 2021.  A noted short-game specialist, if Louie can get his irons back in form, I anticipate he will retain his customary spot lurking in the top ten of the leaderboard.  

Oosty finished second in 2017, but like many others, he has missed the cut a couple of times in his history at Sawgrass.  At 60/1, I will take my chances on an outright victory.  Let’s book it at Bet365 for a half-unit.  

Russell Henley +9000 (FanDuel)

I cannot believe I am typing this right now.  Yes.  Russell Henley is on my card this week.  Why?  

Well, he excels in approach and hitting fairways.  He performs pretty well on Par 4’s between 450-500 yards.  He does enough around the greens.  

Alright, I will stop now.  I really added him because before I wrote this article, I was able to bet him at 120/1 on FanDuel.  That price was a mistake.  For a quarter-unit, I have no regrets…  until he blows the lead down the stretch on Sunday.  Then, follow my Twitter account for tweets like “never again,” “why do I do this to myself?”, or “Henley, the worst.”  

I will happily deal with that problem if Henley can make a final pairing on Sunday.  I grabbed this number at 120/1 for a quarter-unit.  That said, I still like the price on FanDuel at the time of this writing.  

2022 Arnold Palmer Invitational Betting Card

Last week’s card came with a few post-article additions in the way of a few outright bets (Kevin Na, ouch!) and a few small FRL bets.  All in all, the card cost 5.10 units with no return on our investment.  With an emphasis on PGA DFS this week, my betting card will likely not get much larger than a couple of additional outright bets and FRL longshots.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +81.90 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.