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2022 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Thu 9/8 1:37pm PT
Our betting experts are backing one side of the Tampa Bay win total set by Vegas oddsmakers.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Tampa Bay Bucs and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers followed-up their 2020 Super Bowl victory with a disappointing loss to the Los Angeles Rams in the Divisional Round in 2021. Considering the injuries to Tristan Wirfs and Chris Godwin, coupled with the Antonio Brown saga, it was remarkable that Tom Brady even had this team within one play of another NFC Championship Game appearance.

During the offseason, Tom Brady retired…and then he came out of retirement. Ali Marpet and Rob Gronkowski both retired (and stayed retired). Bruce Arians vacated his head coaching position, and handed the reins to Todd Bowles. 

The Buccaneers lost a number of key contributors on both sides of the ball, leaving many question marks heading into 2022. Let’s break down this roster unit-by-unit to see if Brady has enough talent around him to deliver one last miracle in his storied career.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2022 Team Preview

Quarterbacks

Depth Chart: Tom Brady, Blaine Gabbert, Kyle Trask

Aaron Rodgers won his second consecutive Most Valuable Player award in 2021, but there was little doubt that Tom Brady was the best quarterback in the NFL last season. At 44 years old, Brady was elite against the blitz, sensational on 3rd down, and had an astounding 110.3 passer rating in the red zone. Despite injuries to the offensive line and the loss of multiple key pass-catchers in the latter half of the regular season, Brady finished the year with 43 touchdown passes and 5,316 passing yards – both of which led the league.

His interceptions numbers were inflated by some poor luck on balls deflected in the air, evident by the fact that he had a lower turnover-worthy-play percentage than the league average quarterback on every type of throw. Entering what could be his final campaign, there is little doubt that we have witnessed the greatest career of any professional athlete, in any sport. Expect Brady to eat well and stay hydrated – both staples of the TB12 method, and to deliver another elite season of production in 2022 for the Buccaneers.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Leonard Fournette, Rachaad White, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Giovani Bernard

Last fall, Leonard Fournette led this unit with 812 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns on 180 attempts. However, many people overlooked the fact that Fournette also added 69 receptions for 454 receiving yards out of this backfield in 2021. Reports out of training camp that Fournette was out of shape seem to have been overblown, considering Fournette’s involvement in all 11 snaps with Tom Brady on the field during the Buccaneers’ preseason finale. He figures to have another quality year of production in a high usage role for this team in 2022.

Rachaad White will certainly generate a lot of hype as a fantasy football sleeper for this upcoming season, but it is difficult to see where he compliments this offense, unless Fournette is forced to miss time with an injury. White is adept catching balls out of the backfield, but his struggles in pass protection make it unlikely that he is able to fully claim a third down role in his rookie campaign. The upside is high long-term for Tampa Bay’s third round pick, but it might not get an opportunity to be on full display until 2023 or later.

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage, Julio Jones, Cameron Brate

Mike Evans has been a paragon of consistency since entering the league as the seventh overall draft pick in 2014, having never totaled fewer than 1,001 receiving yards or 67 receptions in a season. He has also been a consistent threat in the red zone, tallying at least eight touchdown catches in six of his eight years in the league. He promises to be a strong contributor again in 2022. Chris Godwin was forced to miss the end of last season after suffering an ACL tear shortly before the playoffs.

The veteran wide receiver did not play a single snap during the preseason, but has been medically cleared to return to practice, and appears ready to play Week 1 against the Dallas Cowboys. If healthy, Godwin figures to be a frequent target in the passing game, following a year in which he secured 98 receptions for 1,103 yards in only 14 games.

Injuries to the interior portion of the offensive line could also force the offense to rely more on the quick passing game – an area where Godwin has excelled out of the slot. Russell Gage is not often mentioned by the media when discussing this group, but he is capable of making a major impact for Tampa Bay in his first season in Florida.

In his final two years with the Atlanta Falcons, Gage caught 138 passes for 1,556 receiving yards. He has tremendous upside in three wide receiver sets for the Buccaneers. Julio Jones has been one of the premier wide receivers in the NFL across the last decade, but finds himself buried on the depth chart in a crowded unit replete with talent. A healthy Jones could be a tremendous benefit for the Buccaneers in key situations, but he is unlikely to see enough action to warrant much consideration from bettors or the fantasy football community unless an injury thrusts him into a larger role.

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Donovan Smith, Aaron Stinnie, Ryan Jensen, Shaq Mason, Tristan Wirfs

The Buccaneers led the NFL in pass block efficiency in 2021, but they are unlikely to repeat that performance in 2022. All-Pro Guard Ali Marpet retired during the offseason. Ryan Jensen suffered a season-ending knee injury during training camp, thrusting Robert Hainsey into the starting center spot.

Prior to 2021, Hainsey had never played center, and he only played 31 total offensive snaps last season for Tampa Bay – all in blowout victories, per The Athletic. Aaron Stinnie tore his ACL and MCL during a preseason contest against the Tennessee Titans, and will consequently miss the entire 2022 campaign. Tristan Wirfs is dealing with a strained oblique, but claims that he will be healthy and ready to play in the season opener on September 11th. A healthy Donovan Smith, Shaq Mason, and Tristan Wirfs is enough to keep this unit from being a liability, but this offensive line is nowhere near as strong as they were last fall. 

Base 3-4 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Akiem Hicks, Vita Vea, William Gholston

Ndamukong Suh has been a staple of this Tampa Bay defensive line in recent seasons, but will not be in a Buccaneers uniform in 2022. Suh has strong name recognition, but his performance had fallen off sharply in recent years. He will be replaced by Akiem Hicks, who has been a quality contributor in both the run game and as a pass rusher during his NFL career. Vita Vea was drafted 12th overall in 2018, and has performed up to expectations in each of his first four seasons. Since entering the league, Vea ranks among the top-10 interior defensive lineman in pressure rate (11.3 percent), per Pro Football Focus. William Gholston is the only weak link in this defensive front, but still has league average upside, and a floor that will make him playable most weeks.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Devin White, Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett

Lavonte David has been one of the premier linebackers in the NFL, dating back to 2012 when he was drafted in the second round out of Nebraska. He is the clear alpha in a unit that is otherwise less than elite.

Devin White generated a lot of hype coming out of LSU as the fifth overall draft pick in 2019, but has been extremely underwhelming during his first three seasons. In 2021, he graded 83rd out of 85 linebackers in run defense, per Pro Football Focus. Joe Tryon-Shoyinka similarly drew a lot of media attention as a budding star after being selected in the first round last summer. However, he was far worse than league average as a rookie. Tampa Bay will need him to take a major step forward as a sophomore if they want this unit to be a strength rather than a liability this fall.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Sean Murphy-Bunting, Antoine Winfield Jr., Mike Edwards, Carlton Davis

Sean Murphy-Bunting was one of the worst cornerbacks in the league last season, grading 85th out of 115 players at his position in coverage during the 2021 campaign.

Opposing passing attacks are likely to attack Murphy-Bunting early and often in games this fall, especially with the return of Carlton Davis to full health on the other side of the field. Davis figures to be a nightmare for opposing team’s top wideouts as long as he can stay healthy. Antoine Winfield Jr. was arguably the best safety in the entire NFL last season, making major contributions in both the run game and in coverage. He will need to be exceptional again this fall to make up for the inconsistent play of Mike Edwards starting alongside him.

2022 Tampa Bay Bucaneers Outlook And Betting Pick

To open the year, the Buccaneers go on the road against the Dallas Cowboys and New Orleans Saints. The subsequent two weeks, Tampa Bay will host the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs.

The major appeal from a betting perspective with Tampa Bay in 2021 was the fact that they returned nearly their entire Super Bowl winning roster from the prior season. Heading into 2022, this group has a quarterback who missed nearly two weeks during the preseason, an unproven interior offensive line, a rehabbing Chris Godwin, aging Mike Evans, and more than a few question marks on the defensive side of the ball. There are very few easy wins on the schedule for Brady and company this fall. A slow start could have them fighting from behind in the NFC South standings all winter. Take the under here. 

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