2022 U.S. Open: Golf Odds and PGA Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 U.S. Open. Make sure to use our PrizePicks bonus and Caesars promo code to begin betting now!

While the debut of the LIV Golf Tour works to capture headlines, the PGA prepares for the third major tournament of the season.  The U.S. Open will take place in Brookline, Massachusetts at The Country Club. 

Anticipation could not be higher, as PGA Tour stalwarts seem hellbent on defending the honor of the tour while a number of defectors come back to play in the event.  We will start with betting odds before touching on the golf course.  

2022 U.S. Open Odds

At the time of this writing –  June 14th – you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers priced at 40/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of The U.S. Open:

• 2021 – Jon Rahm (-6)
• 2020 – Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
• 2019 – Gary Woodland (-13)
• 2018 – Brooks Koepka (+1)
• 2017 – Brooks Koepka (-4)

While the courses are all different, and the U.S. Open has not been contested at The Country Club since 1988, golf fans know that the USGA prides itself on making this tournament a true test.  So while the courses might not match up, the list of recent winners shows that this tournament generally requires players sitting in the upper echelon of the field.

The LIV Tour members will make a less than triumphant return to United States golf with Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and company playing in the U.S. Open.  The impact of playing in this first LIV event is an unknown this week although we immediately notice longer odds for Dustin Johnson than we are accustomed to.  Bryson DeChambeau is also slated to return with longer odds than ever in a major.  Will his wrist hold up?  Will the LIV Tour defectors be able to avoid the media circus?  

Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas are receiving all of the buzz off the back of their matchup with Tony Finau in Canada. Due to this recent acclaim, golfers like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler come with a bit of a discount across the sports betting industry.  

Tiger Woods will not play in the US Open.  Instead, Tiger wants to give his body time to heal properly for The Open Championship at St. Andrews this summer. Harris English returns to the field this week and by all accounts seems healthy.  

2022 U.S. Open Betting Preview

• Course: The Country Club
• Date: June 16 – 19
• Par: 70
• Yardage: 7,264
• Greens: Bentgrass & Poa Blend

The Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts is a classic course with winding fairways and plenty of contours aimed at giving players fits.  Watching videos of players practicing and course flyovers makes it very clear, that this course is going to be a challenge.  

The fairways will be challenging to hit – big surprise.  The course, though, does not demand the longest drivers of the golf ball.  Length, of course, will not hurt players’ causes.  As per usual, the USGA will look to force players to drive the golf ball well as missing fairways will be extremely penal.

Par will be a great score for players throughout the week as the course is not littered with a ton of birdie opportunities.  The Par 3’s are typically long and challenging while the very short 131-yard Par 3 will command a great shot.  The elevated tee aims at a green surrounded by trouble and out-of-bounds.  Surely a short club, players cannot make any mistakes on this hole.  

Surprise!  Eight of the Par 4’s play longer than 450 yards with three 499+.  Again, the theme is that par will be a great score all week long.  While the weather seems poised to cooperate, any additional factors that make this course more challenging will lead to less optimal scoring conditions.  

The greens are some of the smallest featured on tour.  Good news.  The importance of putting is mitigated.  Bad news.  The around-the-green play will be pivotal.  Unlike the PGA Championship at Southern Hills, surrounding areas will not be fairway-like.  Instead, The Country Club features contours, bunkers, and brutally deep rough protecting the greens.  As is the norm, the course will be a second-shot golf course.  That said, players will need to get up and down to survive.  

I am going to weigh recent form with regard to SG: OTT and SG: Approach pretty heavily this week.  I will also include bogey avoidance, SG: ARG, Fairways, and SG: Par 4 450-500.  Further, I think it will help to examine players’ form at the U.S. Open over the years.  The USGA loves to set up the different courses very similarly.  

2022 U.S. Open Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Jon Rahm

• Current Odds:+1500 (FanDuel)

If SG: OTT and driving the golf ball are going to be important, look no further than the defending U.S. Open Champion to start your card.  Given some previous futures bets, I have a bit of room on the card for a high-ticket item this week.  

Over his last 36 rounds, Rahm leads the field in SG: OTT, SG: Ballstriking, and sits 8th in SG: T2G.  At The Memorial, Rahm lost strokes off-the-tee for the first time since the Tour Championship in 2019.  2019!  Rahm loves playing on courses that test all aspects of a player’s golf game.  

The price feels extremely reasonable this week likely aided by the recent form of Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas.  I will take this opportunity to start my card with Rahm.  While I normally don’t take this approach, a couple of my bets from previous weeks leave a bit of room.  We will go with 2.5 units on FanDuel Sportsbook.  

Daniel Berger

• Current Odds: +5000 (FoxBet)

Checking in for our second slot, Daniel Berger comes with a nice price.  While the field is obviously stacked, Berger at +5000 feels pretty good given his success over the last four years at the U.S. Open. 

Berger brings two top 10’s over the last four years with four made cuts.  Berger finished in 5th at The Memorial in his last start and brings a complete game to Brookline.  Berger ranks Top 25 in Approach, OTT, ARG, and T2G.  His 77th ranking in putting feels far less important given the tiny greens.  

I never like going into a tournament with no exposure to Berger. Sweating him making cuts and going on weekend runs is painful. He will need to put everything together but at 50/1 he feels like a logical next place to go with our card.  I will purchase ¾ of a unit at FoxBet.  

Mito Pereira

• Current Odds: +6000 (Unibet)

Finally, rounding out our card, we make room for Mito Pereira.  Pereira checks plenty of our aforementioned boxes but offers something not measured in a statistical model.  

After his last-hole collapse at the PGA Championship, when Pereira couldn’t even make the playoff with Will Zalatoris and Justin Thomas, Pereira followed with two exceptional finishes at The Charles Schwab (7th) and The Memorial (13th).  Ond would think the impact of that finish might linger for a while but Mito was able to regroup quickly and showcase the form that put him in a winning position at Southern Hills.  

At the cost, I think Mito is a perfect fit given the bets made over the last few weeks.  Let’s go with ⅝ of a unit on Unibet.

Additional Bets on the card (Futures)

Max Homa

• Current Odds: +7000

After his performance at The Memorial I made Max Homa my first U.S. Open bet.  I sensed that when odds were updated after the Canadian Open there was no way 70/1 would be available on Homa.  We are in for ⅝ of a unit.  

Billy Horschel

• Current Odds: +10000

Prior to the final round of The Memorial, I saw a boost on Billy Ho at 100/1 on Bet365.  I knew that his odds would plummet with the new release this week and jumped on this when I could.  I will admit that I don’t think he is likely to win this event given his major championship track record but 100/1 is just too much.  He was a worthy addition for ⅜ of a unit a couple of weeks ago.  

The U.S. Open Betting Card

• Net Units the Memorial:  -3.2 units
• 2022 Profit in Units:  +48.775 units

Good luck this week, everyone. Check back on Twitter this evening for any additions to my outright betting card.  

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.