2022 Valero Texas Open Preview: Odds and PGA Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Valero Texas Open. Check out the new golf odds comparison tool to find the best sportsbooks for your PGA picks!

Scottie Scheffler booked his third win of the 2022 PGA Tour season with an impressive WGC Match Play victory in his home state.  Scheffler, after an incredible run over his last five tournaments, is now seated atop the world rankings and is the betting favorite at The Masters next weekend, at the time of this writing.  

We had Scottie in our DFS lineup but didn’t bet anyone on top of the odds board last week.  A couple of guys were able to win their group but were not able to make it to Sunday.  After another ho-hum week, we pine for some renewed momentum ahead of the season’s first major.  This week, we cover the 100th edition of the Valero Texas Open – with this being the 13th at TPC San Antonio’s Oaks Course.  Let’s get into the odds.  

2022 Valero Texas Open Odds

At the time of this writing — evening of March 29th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds 50/1 or shorter.

Past Winners

• 2021 – Jordan Spieth (-18)
• 2019 – Corey Conners (-20)
• 2018 – Andrew Landry (-17)
• 2017 – Kevin Chappell (-12)
• 2016 – Charley Hoffman (-12)
• 2015 – Jimmy Walker (-11)
• 2014 – Steven Bowditch (-8)
• 2013 – Martin Laird (-14)

Rory McIlroy will make a start after skipping the WGC Matchplay.  By all accounts, McIlory is using the Valero to get primed for The Masters next weekend and is the clear favorite. Bryson DeChambeau plays another event as he aims to get back on track after his injury woes.  Hideki Matsuyama is making his first start since withdrawing from the Players Championship with a neck injury.  

Last year, Jordan Spieth began his resurgence at the Valero Texas Open with a victory over Charley Hoffman.  Spieth’s current form does not resemble that of last season. Hoffman leads the all-time Valero Texas Open money list and has made five straight cuts at the event.  Matt Kuchar and Brendan Steele are the only other two players in the field that have made the cut in the five last renditions of this event.  

The winner of the Valero will take the final spot in The Masters next weekend.  Famously, Corey Conners won the tournament as a Monday qualifier and made the trip to Augusta the following week.  This season, Conners’ impressive history at this event (T14, 1st, T26) has him in the top five of most betting boards.  

The Valero Texas Open presents an opportunity for several members of this field to punch a ticket to Augusta – I am looking at you Rickie Fowler.  As we learn over the years, every PGA Tour event is a massive opportunity for all players to earn status on the tour and qualify for various events.  Despite the importance of The Masters the following weekend, don’t expect players to punt the week as a couple of practice rounds.  

Valero Texas Open Betting Preview

• Course: TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
• Date: March 31 – April 3
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,438
• Greens: Bermuda overseeded with Poa trivialis

TPC San Antonio – like many Texas courses – will play tougher if wind prevails during the tournament.  At the time of this writing, the wind doesn’t seem to be extreme around San Antonio – with maybe a slight kick-up on Thursday afternoon.  Like most Texas venues, heavy winds will bring dramatic impacts on scoring.  That said, check the weather prior to Thursday morning prior to finishing your betting card or DFS lineups.  

The course features a pretty straightforward layout.  Lined by trees, players need to keep drives out of the woods in a solid position for their approach shot.  Driving accuracy is not that important, as most of the rough are not grown out.  Fairways are not vital like many of the Florida courses, but recent tournament history has favored those that can hit greens-in-regulation.  The GIR percentage at the event is lower than most average tour events – expect players to try to get up and down from off the green.  

The course is designed to play downwind on holes going uphill and against the wind on holes going downhill.  Length, though, doesn’t seem to correlate with winning as players like Jordan Spieth, Kevin Streelman, and Martin Laird have all hoisted the trophy on Sunday.  Two of the Par 5’s, however, are north of 600 yards, mitigating the benefit of being a longer hitter as these holes should be three-shot holes.  So, while driving distance is not vital, I do think bombers can find advantageous lengths for approach shots given how docile the rough proves to be at the course.

The 5 Par 4’s from 450-500 yards are five of the seven toughest holes on the course.  Making pars on this set of holes will be vital for players that can take advantage of the Par 5’s.  Otherwise, on the Par 5’s, we are looking for birdies or better.  Only the 14th (Par 5) has an eagle rate north of 2%.  One of the toughest holes on the course, the Par 3 13th, brings a 22.1% bogey rate.  

The highest volume of approach shots will be taken from the 150-175 range.  Along with the aforementioned categories, I will be considering SG: Approach, Good Drives, SG: Par 5, SG: Putting, SG: ARG, and Bogey avoidance.  

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Chris Kirk +3500 (Caesars)

I am a bit worried about investing too much at the top of the leaderboard.  I don’t know what to do with Rory ahead of Augusta and I refuse to invest in Jordan Spieth despite nailing this outright last season.  I do love Corey Conners, his game, and his course history but have reservations after a long weekend at the Matchplay.  

For that reason, I want to start with Chris Kirk.  Kirk brings a pretty strong resume to this event with three top-ten finishes albeit mixed in with a couple of missed cuts.  Prior to his missed cut at the whacky Players Championship, Kirk competed at the Honda, Arnold Palmer, and a bit at the Phoenix Open.  The form is strong to match with a great course history.  He will likely be a very popular DFS option, for good reason. We don’t have to consider game theory when making an outright bet.  

Kirk is not currently in the field at Augusta for this year’s edition of The Masters.  I am willing to risk a unit that he makes the field.  Book that unit at Caesars.

Luke List +6000 (DraftKings)

Full disclosure, I was able to place a 0.375-unit bet on Luke List at +8000 on Bet365 before even breaking down the course.  My thought was, at 80/1, I don’t care what my research on the course suggests.  Luke List, a tee-to-green monster, should not be 80/1.  

List’s stats over his last 36 rounds read like peak Luke List.  Phenomenal tee-to-green, List only suffers with the flat stick and the 150-175 proximity range.  That said, if the field will work from this proximity more than average, List will likely be a bit closer.  His length is pronounced and missing a fairway or two won’t cause many problems.  

I would happily buy at 60/1 odds on DraftKings but already have my 0.375 units invested on Bet365.  We hit Luke List earlier this season for his first career win and would love to add a second prior to Augusta.  

Patton Kizzire +6600 (BetMGM)

Patton Kizzire finished in 9th place at this event last season.  Kizzire tore the state of Texas apart last season, knocking on the door for his first career victory while dialing it up tee-to-green throughout the Texas swing.  

Kizzire ranks 9th in the field in SG: Approach and the top 15 in both SG: Par 5 and BoB%.  Kizzire, more importantly, might rank 1st in the field in SG: Texas, adding two third-place finishes at the Byron Nelson and the Charles Schwab to his top ten at Valero last season.  

The PGA Tour season has crowned several first-time winners – and Scottie Scheffler.  After a strong performance last season and coupled with some decent recent form, this might be Kizzire’s time.  I am in for a half-unit at BetMGM.  

Matt NeSmith +15000 (ScoreBet)

Matt NeSmith put together a phenomenal performance at the Valspar a couple of weeks ago.  Unfortunately, despite gaining 9.3 strokes tee-to-green, NeSmith was chased down by Sam Burns for his second consecutive victory at the tournament.  

NeSmith ranks sixth in the field in both Approach and Good Drives.  Despite not bringing the best short game, NeSmith sits in tenth in the field in Bogey avoidance.  Interviews during the Valspar suggest that NeSmith is working on remaining focused and in the moment.  During his lights-out second round, NeSmith seemed completely locked in.  Potentially able to set up his approach shot, NeSmith is second-to-none with his irons in this field.  The performance at Valspar was a very positive step forward in his PGA Tour career.  I won’t be shocked if he can punch his ticket to Augusta with a big win in San Antonio.  I am buying for the ridiculous over the market price of 150/1 for a quarter-unit at ScoreBet.  

Valero Texas Open Betting Card

Last week, I published my card for the WGC Matchplay on Twitter with a total cost of 3.05 units.  My only two contenders were Abraham Ancer and Kevin Na – both of which were not able to make it to the semi-finals of the tournaments despite reasonably good play.  The remainder of my card was not able to get out of their group and did not play on the weekend.  So, we lost 3.05 units last weekend.  My early run and big DFS week are carrying my season — so, no complaints. Yet, I am ready for another Sunday sweat  Hopefully, we get there this week.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +66.575 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.