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2022 Washington Commanders Betting Preview: Picks And Predictions

Nick Galaida Thu 8/25 4:57am PT
Our NFL experts believe Caron Wentz will be a huge asset to the Commanders in 2022.
Image Credit: Imagn

NFL betting expert Nick Galaida takes a look at the 2022 Washington Commanders and offers a free betting pick on their season win total.

Few teams in the NFL had more hype heading into 2021 than the Washington Commanders, but the loss of Ryan Fitzpatrick in Week 1 quickly extinguished the postseason hopes for the preseason media darlings. Defensive stars Chase Young and Montez Sweat also missed significant time due to injuries en route to a 7-10 regular season record.. 

Washington’s expectations are nowhere near as high in 2022, but a number of offseason moves figure to put this team in a position to be competitive most weeks this fall. Let’s take a look at the Commanders unit-by-unit to see if they are capable of returning to the playoffs with their current roster.

Washington Commanders 2022 Team Preview

Quarterback

Depth Chart: Carson Wentz, Taylor Heinicke, Sam Howell

The national media, talk show pundits, and fans have consistently degraded Carson Wentz over the years – and for good reason. Yet, it would be irresponsible for us not to admit that we have, at times, gone too far with our criticisms. Wentz struggled down the stretch in 2021 for the Indianapolis Colts, but still finished the season with a better than league average passer rating on 3rd down, against the blitz, and when under pressure.

He executed well on throws down-the-field, with a 17-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio on throws 10+ yards from the line of scrimmage, per Pro Football Focus. On such throws, he also had a significantly lower turnover-worthy-play percentage than the league average quarterback. In 2022, he will be playing behind a better pass-blocking offensive line than he had in Indianapolis, and will also have more talent at receiver.

If there is one certainty, it is that Wentz is unquestionably an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke, who started 16 games for the Commanders last fall – throwing 15 interceptions and taking 38 sacks. Wentz might not be a media darling, but he is the best signal caller that Washington has seen since Kirk Cousins was in town.

Running Backs

Depth Chart: Antonio Gibson, J.D. McKissic, Brian Robinson Jr.,Jaret Patterson

The Commanders were worse than league average running the ball last fall, finishing the season 18th in rushing yards per play.

Antonio Gibson was entrusted with 258 carries (4th-most in the NFL), but ranked only 35th in rushing yards per attempt. Perhaps most concerning, Gibson fumbled the football five times on the ground after having not fumbled once in his rookie campaign in 2020.

Gibson could see his role reduced dramatically this upcoming season, following continued ball security issues in the preseason, which prompted head coach Ron Rivera to have Gibson participate in special teams during recent practice sessions.

Washington’s third round draft pick, Brian Robinson, from this past summer has shined during training camp, and could be in for a larger role than initially anticipated, due to recent events. Robinson is not great in pass protection, but has the size and ability to dominate in short yardage situations. Still, running the ball could be difficult once again in 2022 for this group, judging based on the fact that Chase Roullier and Samuel Cosmi are the only two skilled run-blockers on the offensive line. 

Wide Receivers

Depth Chart: Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson. Logan Thomas

Terry McLaurin was one of the most underrated receivers in the league last fall, managing to deliver 1,053 receiving yards, despite playing with one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL. Wentz is the most talented quarterback that McLaurin has ever played with, and Washington’s offensive line should be better in pass protection in 2022 than it was in 2021.

McLaurin could be in for his most productive year as a professional this fall. Jahan Dotson is talented – like, really talented. A polished route-runner with exceptional hands, the first round draft pick out of Penn State figures to have an immediate impact in the passing game for a Washington offense that figures to attack through the air frequently this fall behind a strong pass-blocking offensive line. Dotson is most experienced out-wide, but could also create matchup nightmares for defenses in the slot this season. 

Offensive Line

Depth Chart: Charles Leno Jr., Andrew Norwell, Chase Roullier, Trai Turner, Sam Cosmi

Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner are two of the most underrated additions in the league from this past offseason. Both Norwell and Turner are phenomenal in pass protection, with Norwell compiling the 6th-best three-year average pass blocking grade of any guard in the league, per Pro Football Focus.

Charles Leno Jr. and Chase Roullier both grade as skillful pass blockers as well, with Samuel Cosmi being the only below average member of this unit in pass protection. Yet, Cosmi is a second-round selection from the 2021 draft class, with plenty of room to grow as a young player. Even as a rookie, Cosmi was one of the better run-blocking tackles in football. This offensive line has the potential to be much better than many people realize in 2022. 

Base 4-3 Defense

Defensive Line

Depth Chart: Chase Young, Daron Payne, Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat

Following an abysmal showing from the Washington defense in 2021, people seem to have forgotten that the Commanders have four first round draft picks on their defensive line. In 2020, Daron Payne, Montez Sweat, and Chase Young combined for 19.5 sacks and 35.5 tackles-for-loss on a team that went to the postseason and nearly knocked-off the eventual Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Last year, Allen, Sweat, Payne, and Young combined for 20 sacks and 22 tackles-for-loss, despite neither Sweat nor Young playing more than 10 games. Young will miss the beginning of the campaign as he continues his recovery from an ACL tear suffered last year, but is likely to join the team at some time in October if everything goes according to plan. Even without Young, this defensive line still has the potential for elite production.

Linebackers

Depth Chart: Cole Holcomb, Jamin Davis, David Mayo

If there is one undeniable vulnerability in Washington’s defense, it is their linebacker corps. In fact, Cole Holcomb, David Mayo, and Jamin Davis form arguably the worst linebacker unit in the entire NFL. Holcomb led the team in tackles in 2021, but had only one sack and two tackles-for-loss.

He also graded as one of the worst coverage linebackers in the league last year. Davis had a disappointing rookie campaign, but theoretically still has room to grow, judging by his first round draft status. David Mayo has compiled one productive year since 2017, and is unlikely to make a positive impact for this group in 2022.

Secondary

Depth Chart: Kendall Fuller, Kamren Curl, Bobby McCain, William Jackson III

Last fall, the Commanders ranked 28th in pass yards allowed per play, according to NFL GSIS. Kendall Fuller finished the season as one of the truly elite players at his position, but there was not much help elsewhere against opposing air attacks. William Jackson III struggled mightily in his first year with Washington, ranking 77th out of 115 cornerbacks in coverage grade, per Pro Football Focus. Still, there is room for optimism for him to bounce-back in 2022, considering that he was one of the better cornerbacks in football during his four year tenure with the Cincinnati Bengals.

From Week 10 to the end of the regular season in 2021, Jackson III only allowed 105 receiving yards on 217 coverage snaps. His improved play made a significant impact for the unit as a whole. From Week 1 to Week 8, Washington allowed a 67.5 completion percentage, 7.6 pass yards per attempt, and a 20-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio to opposing quarterbacks. From Week 10 until the end of the year, the Commanders improved across the board in each of those metrics. Over the top, Kamren Curl and Bobby McCain form a respectable, albeit not elite, safety tandem. If Williams III returns to form, the Washington secondary might not be as big of a weakness as many pundits are forecasting.    

2022 Washington Commanders Outlook And Betting Pick

In 2021, Washington managed to win seven games, despite the fact that Heinicke finished the season ranked 24th in EPA per drop back, with no shortage of turnover-worthy throws. Regardless of how bettors feel about Wentz, they have to admit to themselves that he is, at least, better than what the Commanders had under center last fall.

Adding Norwell and Turner to the offensive line only adds to the likelihood that this passing attack will take a major step forward this season. Improved quarterback play, improved health on the defensive line, and the return of Jackson III to his previous form should be enough to net Washington eight wins in 2022.  

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