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2022 WGC-Dell Match Play Odds, Betting Picks, and Bracket Predictions

Joe Cistaro Tue 3/22 9:40am PT
Shane Lowry makes this week's PGA golf betting picks
(Image Credit: Imagn)

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 WGC-Dell Match Play. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks. Check out our Caesars promo code for $1100 first-bet insurance!

After a long, long, loooong Players Championship, we took a week off at the Valspar.  The betting card was released on Twitter, so our season total will be updated (gulp…).  Yet, a week’s reprieve was nice after too much time spent thinking about the catastrophe at TPC Sawgrass.  Kudos to our last two winners on tour, Cameron Smith and Sam Burns.  Smith and Burns join only Patrick Cantlay and Hideki Matsuyama as the only four players on tour with three wins over the last year.    

Fortunately, the volume for me at Valspar was pretty low after a heavier Players Championship card.  This week, I will grab shares of a few outrights in the bracket, hoping for an opportunity to sweat on Saturday and Sunday.  Let’s start with the golf betting odds for the field.  

2022 WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Odds

At the time of this writing — March 21st — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golfers with odds shorter than 40/1.

GolferOdds
Jon Rahm+1200
Justin Thomas+1400
Viktor Hovland+1600
Collin Morikawa+1800
Scottie Scheffler +1800
Dustin Johnson+2000
Patrick Cantlay+2000
Xander Schauffele+2000
Daniel Berger+2500
Tyrrell Hatton+2800
Brooks Koepka+3000
Paul Casey+3000
Billy Horschel+3300
Bryson DeChambeau+3300
Joaquin Niemann+3300
Jordan Spieth+3300
Louis Oosthuizen+3300
Matt Fitzpatrick+3300
Shane Lowry+4000
Sungjae Im+4000
Tommy Fleetwood+4000
Sergio Garcia+4000
Will Zalatoris+4000

Here is the updated field – as of the night of March 21st – with individual overall seeds courtesy of PGATour.com.  Jon Rahm is the top seed with Maverick McNealy rounding out the field after the Sam Burns post-victory withdrawal.  

Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Group 4

Group 5

Group 6

Group 7

Group 8

Group 9

Group 10

Group 11

Group 12

Group 13

Group 14

Group 15

Group 16

Past WGC-Dell Match Play Winners

Here is a list of recent winners at the event:

We will see the world’s best competing in a very fun format – a breath of fresh air – that will break up the monotony of repeated stroke play tournament golf.  The 16 groups will play for the right to make the knockout round of 16.  Based on the previous winners – especially last year’s event – we know that all forms of permutations are possible.  Last year, Jon Rahm was the only top seed to move onto the knockout round.  

Along with the other Top 64, we will see the return of Bryson DeChambeau.  Harris English and Hideki Matsuyama will still not tee it up because of injury.  Rory McIlroy opted out of the event while Phil Mickelson won’t tee it up because well, yeah.  Lastly, Sam Burns withdrew after a second consecutive victory at the Valspar to prepare for the upcoming few weeks. 

For a look at the official bracket, click here for a fun contest run by the PGATour.com website.  

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Preview

Austin Country Club hosts the top 64 golfers in the world for a departure from the usual tournament format in the PGA.  Broken into 16 four-man groups, players will play three matches on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday to determine who will move on to the round of 16.  The knockout round begins on Saturday with double sessions over the weekend.  

Last year, Billy Horschel outlasted Scottie Scheffler in Scheffler’s first Matchplay event.  The near first place finish seemed like a sign of things to come for the young upstart and 2022 has beared witness to the potential of Scottie Scheffler.  The event, as referenced above, proves to crown various styles of winners.  Longer hitters can take advantage of a shorter course layout while shorter hitters that can hit fairways have succeeded as well.  

A Pete Dye design, Austin Country Club is lined with bentgrass and bermuda greens.  Scoring opportunities will be plentiful with 5 Par 4’s below 400 yards.  The three Par 5’s are the three easiest holes on the course – all with birdie rates north of 40%.  We will not have shotlink data for the event, so most of my thoughts behind a betting card or DFS lineups will be based on groupings and price.  

As for statistics that I would consider for this event, I will be emphasizing SG: OTT and SG: Approach while keeping an eye on SG: Short Game, birdie-or-better, and bogey avoidance.  Given all of the extremely short holes, proximity from 150 and in should be greatly considered.  I will be keeping an eye on performance on Pete Dye courses over the last couple of years as well as recent form with the flat stick.     

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics referenced are over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour

Shane Lowry +4000 (BetMGM)

For the matchplay, my plan is to focus on the best bang for my buck given the opening groups.  Shane Lowry will be my starting point.  Lowry received a pretty good draw and given his recent form, he is a deserved favorite (with Brooks Koepka) to win his group and move on to the knockout round.  

Lowry’s proximity from within 150 yards over his last 36 rounds is 12th in the field – only behind Erik Van Rooyen in his group.  He leads his group in SG: Approach and Bogey avoidance.  

Lowry has a 7-16-1 career singles record in matchplay – courtesy of AdamSarson.com.  His track record at Austin Country Club is not great, but his price is pretty strong given his group and his recent play.  I am going to start here for ⅝ units on the BetMGM app.  

Max Homa +6000 (PointsBet)

Speaking of better odds, Max Homa enters his second WGC-Dell Matchplay after a successful debut in 2021.  Homa won his first two matches before succumbing to eventual winner, Billy Horschel and not making the knockout round.  

Homa draws a decent grouping with Dustin Johnson sitting atop as the one seed.  Johnson has had his struggles in this event as of late, though, losing four of his last six matches and failing to advance in 2021 and 2019.  Homa has been in excellent form as of late and seems to bring a confidence suited for this event.  

Homa checks the box off the tee and on approach, landing in the top twenty in both categories as well as birdie-or-better percentage.  Homa’s short game might be a slight concern but his recent form suggests he can get hot with the putter.  

I am going to grab the 60/1 on Homa’s odds at PointsBet for a half-unit.  

Talor Gooch +6600 (PointsBet)

If you have not guessed the theme, I am not afraid to steer into some of the more inexperienced players, especially when I like their group drawing.  Gooch comes into this tournament with arguably the best form in his group at a very good price.  

Last year, Gooch struggled during his opening foray at this event.  That said, is much improved since that tournament and brings a top-fifteen ranking in both SG: Approach and Proximity < 150.  

In his group, Gooch will play a returning Bryson DeChambeau, a very formidable veteran in Lee Westwood, and Richard Bland.  We do not know what to expect from Bryson and I, personally, am not expecting much from Richard Bland.  If Gooch’s putter can heat up a bit, his stellar approach game should give him various opportunities at birdie.  He is well worth the add for a half-unit, also at PointsBet.

Kevin Na +12500 (FoxBet)

Finally, Kevin Na rounds out my preliminary card.  I am not sure if we have any data on SG: New Father, but Na comes back after a break after the birth of his new child.  We should see a slew of walk-in putts and perhaps a strong run from the happy father.  

Na is surely not the cream of the crop in his group but he is surely the most experienced golfer in his pod.  Na has 23 singles matches to his credit while the other three golfers, Henley, McNealy, and Niemann cannot even total that volume of experience.  Na’s short game is unquestionably the best in the group – the flat stick and around-the-green game could keep him around in every match.  

I always prefer adding Na to my card on shorter courses.  The lack of length will be mitigated by so many shorter Par 4’s on the course.  I am going to add Na to the card for a ¼ unit at FoxBet.  

WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play Betting Card

GolferBet (units)To Win (units)
Shane Lowry0.62525
Max Homa0.530
Talor Gooch0.532.5
Kevin Na0.2531.25

Let’s complete some bookkeeping after two tournaments.  I had 9.25 units in play at The Players (4.75 in free bets) and 3.025 units in play at the Valspar.  All of those units were lost.  I was able to hit a live second round leader bet on Matt NeSmith for a helpful victory but will not count that in my seasonal total as it wasn’t mentioned on Twitter.  So, after the last two tournaments, the season total drops 12.275 units.  

We have some work to do and start with only 1.875 units in play.  Let’s hope for a nice bounceback off of a slow couple of weeks.  Any additions to this card will be made on Twitter by Tuesday night.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +69.625 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.

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