2022 Zurich Classic Preview: Odds and Golf Betting Picks

This week Joe Cistaro breaks down the course and golf betting tips for the 2022 Zurich Classic. Here’s a closer look at golf odds across online sportsbooks.

Jordan Spieth found the winner’s circle again at the 2022 RBC Heritage after a playoff victory over Patrick Cantlay. The action on Sunday was very intense with several golfers in the mix into the back nine.

The Zurich Classic and its unique format awaits. In 2017, the Zurich decided to move to a team format instead of the previous standard tournament at TPC Louisiana. The field is relatively loaded. The tournament offers a breath of fresh air as majors season ensues. Let’s start with betting odds.

2022 Zurich Classic Odds

At the time of this writing — April 19th — you can find these odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.  The below list features all golf duos with odds 40/1 or better.

Here is a list of winning teams since the Zurich Classic began the team format in 2017.  

• 2021 – Marc Leishman/Cameron Smith (-20)
• 2020 – No Tournament
• 2019 – Jon Rahm/Ryan Palmer (-26)
• 2018 – Billy Horschel/Scott Piercy (-22)
• 2017 – Cameron Smith/Jonas Blixt (-27)

160 golfers will play the Zurich Classic at TPC Louisiana – making it the largest field in the PGA Tour.  Of course, 160 golfers means 80 teams, where 33 teams and ties will make the cut to play the weekend.  The field – relative to past Zurich Classic fields – is pretty loaded, with five of the top six players in the OWGR playing the event.  Scottie Scheffler highlights the list with partner Ryan Palmer… more on that later.  

Viktor Hovland and Collin Morikawa lead the list of marquee groupings.  The rest, Leishman and Smith, Horschel and Burns, and Cantlay and Schauffele fill up a very crowded top of the odds board this week.  

2022 Zurich Classic Betting Preview

Normally, I focus on course layout and statistical modeling for this portion of the article.  That said, with the Zurich Classic being so unique, I am going to approach this with more of a bulleted, notes-style approach.  Before even digging in, I want to make clear that I will be playing significantly less than my normal volume this week – if anything at all – as I use this as an off week to relax during the season.  For that reason, when we get to betting picks, I will likely focus on longer odds in order to invest very little.  With that said, I will start with the course information, but then we will start talking through notes for this tournament.  

• Course: TPC Louisiana
• Date: April 21 – 24
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,400
• Greens: Bermuda/Poa Overseed

Best Ball on Thursday and Saturday.  On Thursday, teams will play Best Ball – which means both players play their own ball the entire round with the team carding the best score on each hole.  In other words, if Cameron Smith makes birdie on the first hole but Marc Leishman bogeys, the team records a birdie.  This portion of the event is when most teams do their scoring.  Leishman and Smith went a collective -18 last year when they won the event.  

Alternate Shot on Friday and Sunday.  On Friday and Sunday, teams will play alternate shots and card their collective score.  One player will tee off on all of the odd-numbered holes and one on the evens.  For each hole, players will alternate shots until they hole out.  Smith and Leishman scored -2 in this format last season.  

Birdies, birdies, and more birdies.  While making a statistical model for this event is certainly tricky, identifying pairs with high BOB% seems to make sense for the Thursday/Saturday rounds.  Teams will clearly need to take advantage of scoring on these days.  

Pete Dye demands a great approach game.  No surprises here.  SG: Approach will always be king on the PGA Tour.  With plenty of nuanced tricky hazards and trouble spots, players don’t necessarily need to be precise off the tee.  That said, they must throw darts at these greens on Thursday and Saturday.  The Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland pairing will be especially dangerous if both players can alternate getting hot with their irons.  

The Par 3’s are very tough.  All of the Par 3’s are over 200 yards with water looming.  Three of the four Par 3’s are odd-numbered holes, so teams will favor players with more success in this range to tee off on 75% of them.  

Cameron Smith and Billy Horschel love this place.  Smith won in 2017 with Jonas Blixt and again last season with Leishman.  Horschel won this event as an individual in 2013 before winning in the team event in 2018 with Scott Piercy.  

Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown will make their fifth appearance as a duo in this event.  The pairing finished runner up in a playoff to Smith and Blixt in 2017.  Will the familiarity with each other breed a victory?  The Georgia Bulldogs will aim to get it done this week in New Orleans.

Oh, Canada!  Adam Hadwin and Adam Svensson will pair up together with a country and name in common.  Hadwin and Svensson are both sitting in the Top 25 of the field in BOB gained over their last 36 rounds.  Hadwin, specifically, has been in excellent form coming into this event while Svensson remains a volatile, birdie-making machine.  The Best Ball format could treat this team well.  

The winnings for this event are very real.  Don’t let the meaning of this event get misconstrued.  While some players will look to have a good time for a week with a buddy in New Orleans, the payoff for a win here will be pretty big for certain players.  The winning duo receives a two-year exemption on Tour, spots in The Players Championship and Tournament of Champions, spots in the PGA Championship, and also spots in other invitationals.  Prizes are paid in two-spot splits.  So, the winning team will share first and second place, the runners-up will share third and fourth place, etc…  This event maybe isn’t vital to players like Patrick Cantlay or Xander Schauffele, but a player like Benny An could really use this victory.  

Finally, Ryan Palmer is just the default partner for the World’s #1 at this point.  Palmer teamed with Jordan Spieth in 2017 and 2018 during the height of SpiethMania and then switched off to Jon Rahm for the following two events.  Rahm and Palmer won the event in 2019.  Rahm is not playing in the Zurich Classic so, instead, Palmer will be forced to play with – you guessed it – Scottie Scheffler.  Will Ryan Palmer be the only person that can pour ice water on Scheffler’s insanely hot couple of months?  

2022 Zurich Classic Betting Picks

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

An/Im +3500 (Bet365)

 As previously mentioned, this week’s betting card is going to be very small and very cheap.  Therefore, Sungjae Im and Benny An feel like a good starting point for me at a reasonable price.  

Sungjae Im ranks 11th in the field in total strokes gained over his last 36 rounds.  Im will look to carry friend, and fellow countryman, Benny An to a victory that would mean a lot for An.  An currently plays on the Korn Ferry Tour and is highly motivated to regain status on tour.  

Like most of my plays this week, I am purely strolling down narrative street for this one.  I don’t mind throwing a unit down hoping the two can combine for a big win for An.  I am going to wager ¾ of a unit on Bet365.  

Svensson/Hadwin +6000 (DraftKings)

Previously noted, I definitely want in on Team Canada.  Adam Hadwin is playing really, really well as of late, sitting 17th in total strokes gained in the field.  

As mentioned above, the tandem both rank in the Top 25 in BOB gained – a helpful stat given just how low they will need to go on Thursday and Saturday for any hope of winning this tournament.  Svensson has already displayed the shotmaking ability to go on runs.  

I think Svensson can be very, very, very aggressive with his strong approach game on Thursday and Saturday.  I love the price at DraftKings and can get some exposure for only a ½ unit.

Kisner/Brown +9200 (DraftKings)

We stay on DraftKings for my next bet, Kevin Kisner and Scott Brown.  The twosome are the only pair to play together in every iteration of the team format for the Zurich Classic.  

The price makes plenty of sense.  Despite already finishing second one year, the course is very long – a poison pill for Kevin Kisner who plays better on shorter courses.  Scott Brown is clearly playing up in class but does rank in the top 25 of BOB Gained in the field – a stat that put me on the floor.  

The experience on both the course and with each other as partners warrants a 0.375 units.  

That is it for bets at the time of this writing. We will only have 1.625 units in play for a pseudo-off week.  If I add anything – very unlikely – I will post on Twitter.  

Zurich Classic Betting Card

Another swing and a miss at RBC Heritage, with all bets failing to cash.  I tried a couple of T20 finishers that I really liked with one missing the cut (Hoge) and Brian Harman waiting until Sunday to make a real run.  Too little, too late.  We forfeit 7.5 units from the card published on Twitter last Wednesday night.  Luckily, we are keeping it very light this week on both the betting and DFS front.  Who knows?  Maybe an outright victory can come out of nowhere.  

2022 Profit in Units:  +89.125 units

Follow me on Twitter at @JoeCistaro  to follow along with any additions, matchups, or top finishers I add to my outright betting card.  Good luck with all of your wagers this week and thanks for reading.