Atlanta Braves Pitching: Two Things Stand Between Max Fried & NL Cy Young

A 2022 Atlanta Braves pitching preview and look at Max Fried’s Cy Young odds. Use our BetMGM promo to claim a $1000 free bet ahead Opening Day!

Atlanta Braves Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 91.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +1200
• Division Winner: +150
• To Make the Playoffs: -299
• National League Winner: +600
• World Series Champion: +1200

Pitching Preview

Braves Cy Young Odds

Max Fried (+2000)

During the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, Max Fried delivered a 2.25 ERA, 2.81 xERA, and a 3.10 FIP in 56.0 innings of work. He tried pitching through an injury to begin the 2021 season before taking a three week hiatus on the injured list. Upon his return, he posted a 2.44 ERA and a 3.09 FIP across his final 25 trips to the mound. He finished the season ranked in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity and the 75th percentile in xwOBA. Elite command paired with outstanding secondary offerings make Fried one of the most reliable starting pitchers in baseball. Still, there is room for further ascension. Batters have posted a .518 wOBA or higher against Fried’s sinker in each of the last three years–the only pitch of which batters had higher than a .231 wOBA against in 2021. If Fried turns to his best pitches more frequently, he has the potential to be the best pitcher in the National League. Fried will need to stay healthy and log closer to 200.0 innings if he wants to seriously contend for the Cy Young award. His health and his sinker are the only two things standing between him and some hardware.

Fried’s NL Cy Young odds are +1500 on PointsBet Sportsbook, but bettors can get +2000 at Caesars.

Charlie Morton (+7500)

In Game 1 of the World Series, Charlie Morton took the mound on a broken leg, striking-out Jose Altuve before being forced to the showers. It was a bittersweet ending to a spectacular age-37 season for the veteran hurler. Morton posted a 3.34 ERA, 3.32 xERA, and a 3.18 FIP across 185.2 innings during the regular season. He ranked in the 66th percentile in average exit velocity, the 81st percentile in wOBA, and the 81st percentile in strikeout rate. Opposing hitters struggled to a .193 wOBA against Morton’s curveball, which Morton continues to increase in usage each season as he gets older. Assuming that he is fully recovered from the broken leg that ended his 2021 campaign, there is little reason to expect much decline from a pitcher who owns a 3.34 ERA and a 3.25 FIP since the beginning of 2017. As far as MLB futures go, he will not win the Cy Young award, but his floor is better than league average.

Ian Anderson (+7500)

A former third overall draft selection, Ian Anderson certainly has all of the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He features a fastball that ranks in the 72nd percentile in velocity, a filthy changeup, and a capable curveball. Unfortunately, Anderson has yet to put all of these tools together at the MLB level. In 2021, he posted a 3.58 ERA, 4.30 xERA, and a 4.12 FIP in 24 turns through the rotation. Compared to his rookie year, Anderson regressed across the board on nearly every meaningful metric. It is comforting to know that his floor is a league average pitcher, but Atlanta surely expects more from a player of such pedigree. He will need to improve his command and spin rates significantly if he hopes to become a front-of-the-rotation option in Atlanta.

Huascar Ynoa (+15000)

In Huascar Ynoa’s first seven starts in 2021, he allowed two runs or less six times. Then, he was attacked for five earned runs in only 4.1 innings in an outing on May 16th against the Milwaukee Brewers. An ill-advised frustration punch of the bench resulted in a broken hand that sidelined him until August 17th. Ynoa posted a 5.05 ERA and a 4.08 FIP across his final 46.1 frames during the regular season. He missed plenty of bats and showcased much improved command, but he also surrendered an abundance of hard-contact. Opposing hitters demolished his fastball to the tune of a .444 wOBA during the month of September. He figures to settle into a middle-of-the-rotation role in 2022.

Tucker Davidson

Tucker Davidson has only thrown 21.2 innings at the big-league level but should break camp with the team after Manager Brian Snitker indicated that the Braves would begin the season with a six-man rotation. Davidson was limited in 2021 due to a forearm strain, but figures to see plenty of opportunity in 2022 if he can stay healthy. There is plenty of potential in his left arm.

Kyle Wright

A former fifth overall draft selection, Kyle Wright has been outstanding at every stop in his minor league career, but is yet to find any success at the highest level. In 70.0 innings of MLB action, he owns a 6.56 ERA and a 6.56 FIP. After tossing 5.2 innings of one-run ball in relief during an emergency appearance in the World Series, one has to wonder if he simply needs to transition to the bullpen to find his niche.

Mike Soroka (+15000)

Mike Soroka has no business even having odds listed for him to win this award, considering that he will not be on the field until June at the absolute earliest. Factor in that he has not thrown a baseball in nearly two years, and it becomes clear that expectations must be tempered here. In his only full season at the MLB level, Soroka posted a 2.68 ERA, 4.03 xERA, and a 3.45 FIP in 174.2 innings of work. A former first round draft selection, the Braves are unquestionably heavily invested in returning Soroka to the mound, but we have no idea what shape he will be in when it finally happens. Following two achilles tears, it is remarkable that he will be back on the field at all.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Braves bullpen ranked 12th in FIP (4.08), 19th in xFIP (4.36), 19th in strikeout percentage (23.4%), 12th in walk-rate (9.4%), and 18th in WHIP (1.32).

Kenley Jansen is as dependable as it gets in the late innings. Though he has regressed in certain respects in recent years, Jansen has still never posted worse than a 2.90 xERA since FanGraphs started tracking the metric in 2015. Only once in his 12-year career has Jansen struck-out less than 30 percent of batters he has faced in a season. An 8th percentile walk rate in 2021 did not keep Jansen from finishing the season with a 2.22 ERA, 2.83 xERA, and a 3.08 FIP. He ranked in the 93rd percentile in xwOBA and the 99th percentile in average exit velocity. Jansen at his worst is still better than the vast majority of relievers at their best.

Like so many before him, the Tampa Bay Rays helped Collin McHugh discover his best self. Last summer, McHugh was dominant with a 1.55 ERA, 2.26 xERA, and a 2.12 FIP. He ranked in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and the 98th percentile in xwOBA, not to mention a strikeout percentage in the 87th percentile and a walk-rate in the 95th percentile. The primary adjustment was a dramatic increase in usage of his slider and cutter while demoting his fastball to his third-most frequent offering. He held opposing batters to a .159 wOBA with his slider, which he threw 52.9 percent of the time. If McHugh drops his fastball altogether in 2022, it is not impossible to think he can post similar results for his new club.

Will Smith was atrocious during the pandemic-shortened campaign in 2020, posting a 4.50 ERA, 5.17 xERA, and a 7.38 FIP. He rebounded to post a 3.44 ERA, 3.39 xERA, and a 4.17 FIP during the 2021 regular season, followed by 11.0 innings of scoreless baseball in the postseason. Command issues continue to be of concern for Smith, but an 88th percentile strikeout rate and a 79th percentile xwOBA figure to keep him plenty useful in 2022, especially now that he can work in lower leverage situations.

Tyler Matzek’s encore to a sensational 2020 campaign was a 2.57 ERA, 3.06 xERA, and a 3.20 FIP in 2021. He paired 87th percentile fastball velocity with some of the most elite spin rates in the game, resulting in an xwOBA that ranked in the 89th percentile among qualified pitchers. An abysmal 14.0 percent walk-rate warrants a yellow flag as he looks to post his third consecutive dominant season, but his ability to pitch in the 6th and 7th inning rather than at the end of games should reduce some of the pressure on the 31 year old.

In his first 76.1 innings of big-league action, A.J. Minter posted a 3.18 ERA and a 2.17 FIP. Disaster struck in 2019 when he completely lost the strike-zone, and floundered to a 7.06 ERA, 5.45 xERA, and a 4.61 FIP. Across his last 74.0 innings of work since the beginning of 2020, Minter once again looked to be formidable on the mound, posting a 2.92 ERA and a 2.73 FIP, which much-improved command. Last summer, he ranked in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and the 89th percentile in xwOBA. If he does not lose sight of the strike-zone, he figures to have another excellent year in 2022.

Fortunately for Atlanta, Darren O’Day is unlikely to see a single high-leverage inning in 2022. O’Day pitched only 10.2 innings in 2021 before he spent the remainder of the year on the injured list. In limited work, his mid-80s fastball and high-70s slider led to a 3.38 ERA, 4.60 xERA, and a 4.95 FIP. He will mostly eat innings when the Braves are trailing this upcoming season–a rather non stressful occupation for someone earning a cool $1 million.

Baseball Prospectus allowed space for one sentence in their annual preseason guide to provide their analysis on Sean Newcomb. “Sean Newcomb should look into a career in marketing and promotions because he excels at handing out free passes.” There is little else to mention when a player walks 18.0 percent of the hitters he faces in a single season. He will get one more chance at a relief role in 2022, but his 1.76 WHIP since the beginning of 2020 does not inspire confidence that he will take advantage of the opportunity.

Tyler Thornburg owns a 3.48 ERA and a 4.10 FIP in 269.1 innings during his career, but he did not pitch at all in 2021. His 6.16 ERA and 5.30 FIP since the beginning of 2018 suggest that he might not pitch that much in 2022 either, though it appears Atlanta will have him on the roster to open the year.