Angels vs. White Sox Odds, Pick and Prediction (5/1/22)

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Angels vs. White Sox odds, previews each team, and delivers picks and predictions for Sunday. Use our PointsBet promo code to get a $2000 in free bets!

Angels vs. White Sox Odds

This afternoon, the Los Angeles Angels and the Chicago White Sox will play the third contest of a four-game set at Guaranteed Rate Field. Los Angeles emerged victorious on Friday by a final score of 5-1, but Chicago rebounded for a 4-0 win on Saturday. Today, the Angels will hand the ball to Michael Lorenzen, who will be opposed by Dallas Keuchel. Oddsmakers anticipate a tightly-contested affair, pricing the Angels as small -114 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Los Angeles Angels

Entering play on Sunday, Michael Lorenzen owns a 2.93 ERA, 3.45 xERA, and a 4.55 FIP. He started the year with a quality start against the Miami Marlins, was roughed up by the Houston Astros in his subsequent outing, and then delivered six innings of shutout baseball against the Cleveland Guardians. Notably, Lorenzen has almost completely discarded his cutter in 2022–a major adjustment, considering that his cutter was his most frequent offering in 2021. As mentioned in our preseason preview of the Angels, opposing hitters posted a .351 wOBA against the cutter last year. A shrewd adjustment to his pitch usage suggests that this could be a breakout year for the talented 30-year-old.

Facing southpaws this season, the Angels rank 11th in OPS, 17th in ISO, 6th in walk-rate, and 23rd in strikeout-percentage. Fortunately for Los Angeles, their strikeout tendencies at the plate are unlikely to be a significant problem against Dallas Keuchel, who has not posted a strikeout rate north of 18.7 percent since 2017. The temperatures are forecasted to be around 50 degrees at first pitch, but this could still be an extremely productive day for this lineup.

The primary concern for the Angels on Sunday is in the late-innings. Raisel Iglesias has thrown in four of the last six days. Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera would be appearing for the third time in four days if they find their way into the game on Sunday. Mike Mayers and Andrew Wantz would be appearing for the third time in five days if they are thrown into action today.

Chicago White Sox

In our preseason preview of the White Sox, we mentioned that it would only be a matter of time before Chicago was forced to remove Dallas Keuchel from the rotation. The underlying metrics have been forecasting decline for numerous years for the veteran southpaws, and it finally manifested during a 2021 campaign in which he posted full season career-worsts in ERA (5.28), xERA (6.20), FIP (5.23), strikeout percentage (13.2 percent), and WHIP (1.53). Through three turns in the rotation in 2022, Keuchel owns a 9.00 ERA, 6.05 FIP, 12.1 strikeout percentage, 10.3 percent walk-rate, and a 2.40 WHIP. Keuchel’s changeup remains somewhat effective, but his cutter, slider, and sinker have failed to generate many positive outcomes. It could be another rough day at the office for him today.

Luis Robert returned to the lineup on Friday after missing a week of action, but his presence alone is unlikely to remedy the widespread offensive issues for Chicago. During the month of April, the White Sox ranked 30th in OPS, 21st in ISO, 30th in walk-rate, and 6th in strikeout percentage against right-handed pitching. Only Andrew Vaughn and Danny Mendick have higher than a .635 OPS against righties entering play on Sunday.

Further complicating the path to victory today is a bullpen unit that is far from rested. Aaron Bummer has thrown 43 pitches in the last three days. Tanner Banks has thrown 37 pitches since Thursday. Kendall Graveman and Liam Hendricks each threw 20 pitches or more on Saturday. Matt Foster would be appearing for the fourth time in six days if he found his way into the action this afternoon.

Angels vs. White Sox Pick 

In this matchup, the Angels have the better starting pitcher and the better offensive attack. Both bullpens are dealing with some fatigue problems, and neither arm barn has been particularly effective in bridging the gap from their starter to the backend of their relief unit in 2022. The majority of the data supports a Los Angeles victory in this one. Take the Halos at a near pick’em price in this spot.

• PICK: Angels ML @ -114