Arizona Diamondbacks Futures Odds and Pitching Preview

What should bettors think about the Diamondbacks pitching staff and MLB futures? Find the best sportsbook offers on our Arizona sports betting page ahead of Opening Day!

Arizona Diamondbacks Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 66.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +50000
• Division Winner: +15000
• To Make the Playoffs: +1500
• National League Winner: +12500
• World Series Champion: +25000

Pitching Preview

Diamondbacks Cy Young Odds

Madison Bumgarner (+15000)

At one point, Madison Bumgarner was one of the best pitchers in baseball. That is no longer the case. Since the beginning of 2020, Bumgarner owns a 5.07 ERA and a 5.20 FIP. He had a 7.79 xERA in 2020 and a 4.36 xERA in 2021. His fastball velocity registered in only the 4th percentile last summer, which was part of the reason he finished the year in only the 39th percentile in xwOBA and the 26th percentile in strikeout percentage. Opposing hitters posted a .333 wOBA against his cutter last season and a .376 wOBA against his curveball. It is hard to be consistently effective when 56.0 percent of a pitchers’ offerings are worse than league average. Bumgarner is not among the worst pitchers in the MLB, but his glory days are long behind him.

Bumgarner’s NL Cy Young odds are +8000 on BetMGM Sportsbook, but you can get +15000 on Caesars.

Zac Gallen (+15000)

Zac Gallen is the biggest enigma on this staff. In three big-league campaigns, he has never posted an xERA worse than 3.98, but twice, he has managed to outperform his peripherals by nearly a full run. Despite landing on the injured list three separate times in 2021, Gallen finished the year ranked in the 57th percentile in wOBA and the 70th percentile in strikeout percentage. Below average command and a poor fastball seem to limit his ceiling more than most analysts care to admit. He finished 9th in voting for the National League Cy Young in the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign, but that seems to be more a fluke than a predictor of his future. Based on his career numbers, the only path Gallen has to stardom is as a pitcher who prioritizes his cutter, changeup, curveball, and slider at the expense of a hittable fastball. There is hope for better results, but it remains to be seen if the coaching staff in the desert is capable of extracting such talent.

Merrill Kelly (+15000)

Merrill Kelly owns a career 4.27 ERA and a 4.30 FIP, which lined up nicely with his 4.44 ERA, 4.51 xERA, and 4.11 FIP in 2021. Kelly has some of the best command in baseball, but a fastball velocity in the 24th percentile and the lack of a true swing-and-miss offering severely limit his ceiling. In 2021, opposing hitters demolished his fastball to the tune of a .591 wOBA. His sinker and cutter were not much more deceptive. There is some upside likely still untapped if Kelly increases the usage on a changeup and curveball that held batters to a .219 wOBA or lower last season. However, more frequent usage of pitches with significant movement could curtail Kelly’s one current strength–his lack of free passes. At present, he is a serviceable middle-of-the rotation option on a team that has few aspirations of doing anything significant in 2022.

Luke Weaver (+15000)

A former first round draft selection, the Luke Weaver breakout is now on Take 7. Entering 2022, Weaver owns a career 4.64 ERA and a 4.06 FIP. Seemingly every year, there are short windows that showcase what he could be if everything clicked on a consistent basis. Yet, his two best pitches last summer were the two pitches–cutter and curveball–that he threw the least often. There may never be a Cy Young award in Weaver’s future, but at still only 28 years old, there is still more that has that potential to be unlocked. Still, he ranked in only the 21st percentile in average exit velocity and the 30th percentile in xwOBA in 2021 and has only once stayed healthy enough to throw more than 65.2 innings in a campaign. 

Zach Davies

Zach Davies is the quintessential backend starter at this point in his career. Across 148.0 innings in 2021, he totaled a 5.78 ERA, 6.36 xERA, and a 5.45 FIP. He finished in the 25th percentile in average exit velocity, 3rd percentile in xwOBA, 10th percentile in strikeout percentage, 16th percentile in walk-rate, and the 3rd percentile in fastball velocity. He will get paid to eat innings in 2022 with the expectation that he will be good enough to keep the bullpen from being decimated.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Diamondbacks bullpen ranked 28th in FIP (4.85), 30th in xFIP (4.98), 30th in strikeout percentage (19.1%), 11th in walk-rate (9.4%), and 30th in WHIP (1.52). 

Mark Melancon somehow tallied a league-leading 39 saves en route to a 2.23 ERA in 2021. His 4.24 xERA strongly indicates that Melancon’s run prevention was due to a considerable amount of good luck. He ranked in only the 39th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 34th percentile in walk-rate. Melancon also registered in only the 46th percentile in xwOBA and the 25th percentile in chase rate. At minimum, Melancon should regress to around a 3.50 ERA in 2022, but maybe his ability to generate weak contact will once again enable him to outperform all of the nerd metrics.

Similar to Melancon, Ian Kennedy outperformed his underlying data by a rather wide margin last summer. His 3.20 ERA was over a full run lower than his 4.75 FIP. Kennedy managed a fortunate .244 BABIP, despite ranking in the 9th percentile in average exit velocity and the 10th percentile in hard-hit rate. He still has decent swing-and-miss stuff and good command, but his ERA is likely to end 2022 closer to 4.00 than it is to 3.00.

Noe Ramirez was ostensibly excellent in 2021, with a 3.00 ERA, 2.92 xERA, and a 3.89 FIP. Unfortunately for Ramirez, those numbers were built on an unsustainably fortunate .200 BABIP. His fastball registers in only the 8th percentile in velocity and the 42nd percentile in spin rate.He has failed to strike-out 20.0 percent of opposing hitters in either of the last two seasons, which is even more problematic given his walk rate. Ramirez might not last the full season in the major-leagues in 2022.

Joe Mantiply seems to be one of the more reliable relievers Manager Torey Lovullo has at his disposal heading into the new year. In 39.2 innings last summer, Mantiply delivered a 3.40 ERA, 3.92 xERA, and a 2.94 FIP, despite falling victim to an extremely unlucky .367 BABIP. Mantiply does not have elite velocity or spin rates, but he induces a lot of weak contact on the ground, giving him a reasonably safe floor for this upcoming campaign.

Across 74.1 innings from 2018 to 2020, J.B. Wendelken owned a 2.30 ERA and a 3.03 FIP. His 2021 went less well, finishing the season with a 4.33 ERA, 4.67 xERA, and a 4.09 FIP. Most notably, he lost two miles-per-hour on his slider, which resulted in opposing hitters going from a .106 wOBA against the pitch in 2020 to a .301 wOBA against the offering in 2021. If Wendelken can ramp up the velocity on that pitch again in 2022, he could be a delightful surprise in Arizona as part of a much-improved bullpen unit.

As a member of the rotation last summer, Caleb Smith posted a 6.35 FIP, 15.2 percent walk-rate, and a 1.60 WHIP in 57.0 innings. Coming out of the arm barn, Smith was much better, with a 3.84 FIP, 9.7 percent walk-rate, and a 1.15 WHIP in 56.2 frames. He ranked in the 86th percentile in average exit velocity and the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate. Elite spin rates compensate partially for a fastball that registers in only the 23rd percentile in spin rates. Smith may get another crack at the rotation if there is an injury-need, but becoming a reliable reliever is hardly a disaster for a former 14th round draft pick.

Oliver Perez has thrown only 94.2 innings since the beginning of 2018, but he has not squandered his opportunities. During that time period, he owns a 2.57 ERA and a 2.79 FIP. His 28.5 strikeout percentage and 6.8 percent walk-rate are excellent as well. Do not expect more than 35 innings out of the 40 year old, but he still has talent to offer in small quantities. 

Sean Poppen posted a 5.16 ERA, 5.41 xERA, and a 3.61 FIP in 2021. He figures to pitch only in low-leverage situations in 2022.