Arnold Palmer Inv. PGA Betting – Win, Top 10, Longshot Golf Best Bets
Justin “STLCardinals84” Van Zuiden is a lead DFS and betting analyst for RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds. In this week’s preview, STL will run over his favorite Arnold Palmer Invitational betting picks.
Hello again, ScoresAndOdds readers! After a forgettable week at the Honda Classic, I’m ready to move forward to a new event. Let’s see what this week has to offer!
This week, we head to Bay Hill for another edition of the Arnold Palmer Invitational.
Bay Hill is another challenging course that rarely sees a lot of golfers get into the double digits under par.
Bay Hill is a par 72 layout that has plenty trouble lurking to punish poor shots. Most of the scoring will be done on the par fives, and we do have four of them at this course.
All of those measure at 590 yards or less, and they are generally the four easiest holes on the course.
Par five scoring will be an element that I look at considerably for this event, while current form, course history, and ball striking being other elements of my research process.
STL’s Best Win Market Bets –– 2022 Arnold Palmer
Rory McIlroy to win (+1300 on FanDuel) – This is one course where I will simply prioritize McIlroy every year. He almost never lets us down at Bay Hill.
Over the last five editions of this event, he has finished 4th, 1st, 6th, 5th, and 10th while, gaining FIFTY SIX strokes over field average in those starts.
He finished 3rd in his last European Tour start and 10th in his 2022 PGA Tour debut at the Genesis Open.
McIlroy should be ready to go and is definitely the top choice on the board. I will bet him on any site where you can get him at 12-to-1 odds or better. That’s a steal in my book.
Marc Leishman to win (+3300 on BetRivers) – My official pick to win is Leishman. The form is strong at the moment, as he comes in with six top-20 finishes in his last eight PGA Tour starts.
The course history is as well, as the Aussie has finishes of 1st, 2nd, and 7th in three of the last five editions of this tournament.
Leishman is a notoriously strong player wind player. His missed cut here a year ago might scare some people away, but that’s really the only negative on the ledger, and it’s helping to give us better odds.
In the 2021-2022 season, he ranks inside the top-30 on the whole Tour in all three key metrics I am looking at (21st in par five scoring, 11th in bogey avoidance, and 29th in ball striking). All that adds up to make him a fine value bet at these odds.
STL’s Top Ten Market Bets –– 2022 Arnold Palmer
Gary Woodland Top Ten Finish (+575 on PointsBet) – The positive result last week could be just what kicks things into gear for Gary Woodland. He is a much better golfer than he has shown over the last year, and he has always been a streaky player. Get in while you can still get in at good prices.
Last week marked first top five finish in quite some time, and he gained at least 1.5 strokes compared to field average in every strokes gained metric. That’s a very positive sign, and his Sunday round was fantastic as well. Let’s roll!
Will Zalatoris Top Ten Finish (+310 on FanDuel) – Whenever we have a strong field, and a difficult course, you know I am going to have interest in Will Zalatoris.
He has already proven his worth on these types of tracks, and now we get the added benefit that he is starting to see some of the venues for a second time as a pro.
Of course, he finished 10th in his Bay Hill debut a year ago. Ho hum. He ranks 8th on Tour in bogey avoidance for the 2021-2022 season to date, and I like him at these tasty odds on FanDuel for a top-10.
STL’s Longshots & Other Bets –– 2022 Arnold Palmer
Long Shots – This is a deep field, so we could get some value with some longer odds selections. Gary Woodland is an obvious upside target (65-to-1 on DraftKings), while Carlos Ortiz (100-to-1 on FanDuel) is my favorite pick if you are looking to get into the triple digit odds. After all, Sepp Straka won at around 150-to-1 odds a week ago.
Marc Leishman first round leader (50-to-1 on BetRivers) – As you saw above, I like Leishman a ton this week. He’s 33-to-1 to win and 50-to-1 to be the first round leader, so I would be letting value go by the wayside to not sprinkle some money on the first round leader bet as well.
Matchup – Keith Mitchell over Sam Burns (-120 on DraftKings) – Mitchell has always been a golfer that I enjoy watching, and he’s finally hitting his prime.
He has finished 12th, 10th, and 9th in his last three PGA Tour starts, and he’s always been a better golfer on the Florida swing.
He ranks second in this field in strokes gained off the tee over his last 50 rounds, and he has two top-10 finishes in three previous trips to Bay Hill.
Meanwhile, Burns has scuffled quite a bit of late and has been very erratic. There’s plenty of value in this line.
Adam Svensson top Canadian (+350 on DraftKings) – Svensson has the worst odds of any of the four Canadians in this grouping, and that feels like a mis-price by DraftKings. He made 23 birdies at Pebble Beach and outscored his finishing position that week, and he followed that up with an impressive T9 finish a week ago.
He ranks inside the top 15 of this field in tee to green, approach, and ball striking over the last 50 rounds, yet he has worse odds than Taylor Pendrith and Nick Taylor. I’ll gladly take this bet.
Good luck this week everyone! Let’s win some money!