Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Free MLB Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Astros vs. Twins odds, previews each team, and delivers a free MLB pick and prediction for Tuesday’s game. Make sure to use our BetMGM code to get a $1000 free MLB bet!

Astros vs. Twins odds

Today, the Houston Astros and the Minnesota Twins will begin a three-game set at Target Field. Entering play, Houston has won seven games in a row to pull within one game of first place in the American League West division. Minnesota is 7-3 in their last 10 contests, as they continue to pace the American League Central. This evening, the Astros will send Justin Verlander to the mound, who will be opposed by Joe Ryan. Oddsmakers anticipate Houston running their winning streak to eight games, pricing them as -141 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks.

Houston Astros

Following Tommy John Surgery that kept him from pitching in nearly all of 2020, and all of 2021–Justin Verlander has excelled with a 1.93 ERA, 2.89 xERA, and a 3.23 FIP through his first five turns in the rotation in 2022. Though his strikeout percentage remains relatively low compared to his career numbers, a 91st percentile walk rate has helped him keep traffic off of the basepaths. Verlander has thrown exclusively fastballs, sliders, and curveballs so far this season–each of which has held opposing hitters to a .273 wOBA or lower. Having three above-average pitches makes the veteran hurler a trustworthy option to deliver strong results every time he toes the rubber.

The Astros have only one loss during the month of May, but their offense cannot take much of the credit. Across their last nine games, Houston has scored four runs or less on seven occasions. Still, this group ranks 8th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 4th in walk percentage, 17th in strikeout percentage, 9th in average exit velocity, and 3rd in hard-hit percentage over the last 14 days of action. Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Pena, Kyle Tucker, and Michael Brantley all have a .767 OPS or better against right-handed pitching so far in 2022. The recent return of Jose Altuve to this batting order only makes this lineup stronger. Altuve is batting .409 with three home runs and seven runs scored since being activated from the injured list on May 2nd.

Hector Neris threw three pitches on Sunday, but nobody else in this relief unit has thrown since Saturday. Manager Dusty Baker should have all of his high-leverage options available to him as needed in this one. In the last 30 days, Houston’s relief corps ranks 12th in all of baseball with a 3.65 FIP.

Minnesota Twins

Joe Ryan has been similarly excellent so far in 2022, with a 1.63 ERA, 2.93 xERA, and a 3.08 FIP through his first 27.2 innings of work spanning five outings. Entering play, Ryan ranks in the 85th percentile in average exit velocity, 71st percentile in hard-hit percentage, 71st percentile in xERA, 69th percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 66th percentile in walk-rate. Against right-handed batters, Ryan owns a 2.41 FIP, 32.2 strikeout percentage, 5.1 percent walk-rate, and a 0.80 WHIP. If the talented, young right-hander can limit the damage done by the left-handed hitters in Houston’s lineup, he could be poised for another dominant outing on Tuesday.

During the past two weeks, Minnesota’s offense ranks 4th in OPS, 6th in ISO, 21st in walk-rate, and 9th in strikeout percentage. However, this lineup has produced dramatically different results based on the availability of Byron Buxton. When Buxton was injured from April 16th to April 20th, the Twins scored 0 runs, 1 run, 8 runs, 3 runs, and 0 runs. Fortunately, Minnesota is optimistic that Buxton will be able to rejoin the starting lineup this evening. Make sure to keep an eye out for information regarding the Twins’ star center fielder prior to first pitch.

Minnesota’s arm barn is not as rested as Houston’s, but fatigue is still unlikely to be a major concern. None of Minnesota’s high-leverage relievers have thrown in back-to-back days since early last week, and the off-day on Monday allowed the entire unit to reset their pitch counts. Everyone should be available on Tuesday.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Verlander and Ryan have been two of the most outstanding starting pitchers in baseball to begin 2022. Though both of these offenses have been swinging the bats well of late, the dead ball has contributed to a massive reduction in runs scored during the early portion of the campaign. Since 2019, Target Field ranks 21st out of all MLB stadiums in offensive production in night games. Take the under here.

• PICK: Under 7, Caesars