Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres (4/17/22): Odds, Pick and Prediction

Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Braves vs. Padres odds, previews each team, and delivers a free pick for Sunday’s game. Make sure to use our Caesars bonus to get $1100 first-bet insurance!

Braves vs. Padres Odds

Tonight, the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres will conclude a four game set at Petco Park. The Padres trounced the Braves by a final score of 12-1 on Thursday, but Atlanta rebounded for a 5-2 victory in back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday to put themselves in position for a series win on Sunday. In the series finale, Atlanta will turn to Bryce Elder, who will be opposed by Yu Darvish for San Diego. MLB Oddsmakers anticipate the Padres doing enough to earn a series-split, pricing them as -130 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Atlanta Braves

Bryce Elder made his MLB debut earlier this week against the Washington Nationals, surrendering three earned runs on six hits across 5.2 innings of work in a winning effort. Nearly all of the damage was done by left-handed hitters, who totaled five hits and two home runs against him. Elder primarily used his sinker against right-handed hitters, followed by his changeup and slider. Against left-handed bats, Elder used his cutter to paint the inside corner of the plate. His changeup and slider both had higher than 20% usage as well. The 23 year-old was strong in the minor leagues last summer, he posted a 3.43 FIP at A+, 3.95 FIP at AA, and a 3.25 FIP at AAA. Bettors might be uncomfortable backing a pitcher who barely touches 90 miles-per-hour on the radar gun, but Elder can be trusted to throw strikes and to induce ground-balls on Sunday Night Baseball. If he can limit the damage done by Trent Grisham, Jake Cronenworth, and Jurickson Profar in this one, he should deliver another strong performance. 

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, Atlanta ranked 6th in OPS, 4th in ISO, 13th in walk rate, 23rd in strikeout percentage, and 11th in wRC+ at the plate. However, the absence of Ronald Acuna Jr. continues to be felt early in the campaign. Entering play tonight, the Braves rank only 16th in OPS, 16th in ISO, 11th in walk-rate, 26th in strikeout percentage, and 18th in wRC+. Matt Olson and Marcell Ozuna are both off to quick starts, but they are the only two players with a batting average currently above .257.

Manager Brian Snitker is not shy about abusing his bullpen, but it remains to be seen if he can continue using his relief arms at the current rate without eventually having to face the consequences. Kenley Jansen threw 13 pitches Wednesday, 11 pitches Friday, and 11 pitches on Saturday–likely making him unavailable for Sunday. Collin McHugh threw 21 pitches in Saturday’s victory. A.J. Minter and Tyler Matzek have each thrown two of the last four days. Will Smith has thrown in two of the last three contests. The Atlanta arm barn has no shortage of talent, but fatigue is something to be mindful of ahead of this matchup.

San Diego Padres

Yu Darvish was outstanding in his first turn through the rotation in 2022, delivering 6.0 innings of no-hit baseball against the Arizona Diamondbacks. However, he lasted only 1.2 innings in his second start, surrendering 9 earned runs against the San Francisco Giants. Fortunately for Darvish, he returns to Petco Park for his third start of the campaign, where he posted a 3.24 FIP, 32.7 strikeout percentage, 5.0 percent walk-rate, and a 0.95 WHIP in 2021. Darvish projects well in a battle with a right-handed heavy lineup for the Braves. Last summer, Darvish had a 3.57 FIP against righties, including a 32.7 strikeout percentage. Against lefties, Darvish owned a 4.24 FIP and a comparatively less impressive 25.7 strikeout percentage. If he can limit the damage done by Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson in this one, there is an opportunity for a strong bounce-back outing.

Against right-handed pitching, in 2021, the Padres ranked 12th in OPS, 14th in ISO, 6th in walk-rate, 5th in strikeout percentage, and 12th in wRC+ at the dish. Similar to the Braves, the Padres are without their best hitter–Fernando Tatis Jr., who remains on the injured list. Tatis Jr.’s absence has unquestionably hurt the offensive production from this group in the early portion of the new season. When facing right-handed pitching, San Diego ranks 17th in OPS, 27th in ISO, 18th in walk-rate, 23rd in strikeout percentage, and 16th in wRC+. 

The Padres used Robert Suarez, Pierce Johnson, and Dinelson Lamet for 27 pitches or more on Friday, but only Craig Stammen and Nabil Crismatt were used in Saturday’s defeat. Manager Bob Melvin should have his entire unit available as needed on Sunday.

Free MLB Betting Pick For Today

Notably, the Padres have the highest ground-ball rate of any team in baseball entering action on Sunday. This should play well for Elder, who has underwhelming velocity and thus, relies primarily on his ground-ball to generate outs. Darvish should perform much better tonight than he did in his last outing. Both bullpens have enough talent and rest to keep the scoring to a minimum in the late innings. Take the under here.

• PICK: Game Total Under 8 (-105), Caesars