2022 Baltimore Orioles Futures Odds and MLB Predictions
Sports betting analyst Nick Galaida previews Baltimore Orioles futures odds ahead of Opening Day. Get $2000 in risk-free bets from PointsBet!
Baltimore Orioles Futures Odds
- Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 61.5 Wins (-110)
- Best Regular Season Record: +100000
- Division Winner: +20000
- To Make the Playoffs: +2500
- American League Winner: +25000
- World Series Champion: +50000
Following another 110 loss season, the Baltimore Orioles return largely the same roster. The biggest additions are the aging Robinson Chirinos behind the plate and Jordan Lyles in the rotation. Simply, this is not a team trying to win baseball games in 2022. The arrival of a few top prospects in the middle of the summer could make for some entertaining baseball during August and September, but this is a roster at least two years away from trying to contend in an extremely competitive American League East division. Still, there are young players establishing themselves at the big league level, both offensively and on the mound. Let’s familiarize ourselves with the names that will comprise the Orioles this summer.
Offensive Preview
| Name | Pos. | GP 2021 | wRC+ v. LHP | wRC+ v. RHP | K% | BB% | UZR/ 150 |
| Robinson Chirinos | C | 45 | 109 | 108 | 32.1% | 8.0% | – |
| Ryan Mountcastle | 1B | 144 | 120 | 106 | 27.5% | 7.0% | 3.0 |
| Chris Owings | 2B | 21 | 250 | 99 | 30.0% | 14.0% | 9.5 |
| Ramon Urias | 3B | 85 | 95 | 131 | 25.7% | 9.5% | 14.0 |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 89 | 79 | 84 | 26.3% | 4.3% | -15.0 |
| Austin Hays | LF | 131 | 140 | 84 | 20.2% | 5.3% | 5.0 |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 159 | 113 | 149 | 18.5% | 8.7% | -4.9 |
| Anthony Santander | RF | 110 | 87 | 94 | 23.1% | 5.3% | -0.7 |
| Trey Mancini | DH | 147 | 140 | 85 | 23.2% | 8.3% | 0.4 |
| Rougned Odor | UTIL | 102 | 110 | 70 | 27.7% | 7.5% | -4.2 |
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Baltimore ranked 11th in OPS, 10th in ISO, 18th in strikeout percentage, 28th in walk rate, and 12th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Orioles ranked 26th in OPS, 23rd in ISO, 26th in strikeout percentage, 24th in walk rate, and 27th in wRC+.
Brought over to Baltimore after playing last season with the Chicago Cubs, Robinson Chirinos will carry with him a 32.1 strikeout percentage and a .227 batting average. He was surprisingly good against both left- and right-handed pitching in 2021. Transitioning from the pitcher-friendly confines of Wrigley Field to the hitter-friendly venue known as Camden Yards could lead to this being an underrated signing. Chris Owings has played in only 38 MLB games across the last two seasons. He lacks power, but plays well enough defensively and has enough speed to warrant getting an opportunity again to be a starter. Still, it would be nice if he managed to strike-out less for a player with such a salient absence of home run potential. Per Baseball Prospectus, Ramon Urias would have ranked among the top 10 in baseball in pitches per plate appearance if he would have qualified. He has a patient approach at the plate, but too many holes in his swing and too many ground-balls limit his potential. Simply, Jorge Mateo has never hit the ball well enough to justify an everyday role. In 2021, he ranked in the 99th percentile in sprint speed, but offered little else to the San Diego Padres and the Orioles, which limited his playing time. It would be surprising if Mateo lasted through June as a starter before being relegated to a part-time utility role. In his young career, Austin Hays has fared much better against southpaws than righties–and that was no different in 2021. Hays ranked in only the 8th percentile in walk-rate and the 38th percentile in average exit velocity. He is respectable defensively, but the former third round pick is yet to truly blossom at the big league level. It is hard to understand how Rougned Odor continues to get opportunities in the big leagues. Since 2016, he has been 25 percent worse than the league average hitter–as measured by wRC+. He has posted a .213 batting average and a 27.0 strikeout percentage in that span.
Orioles MVP Odds
Trey Mancini (+9000)
Following a tough battle with cancer, Trey Mancini returned to the field for the first time since 2019 as if he did not miss a beat. He hit 21 home runs and drove in 71 runs in 147 games played. His strikeout and walk numbers remained low for a player whose only role on the team is to hit the baseball. Still, he is an above average hitter in a hitter-friendly ballpark–at least until he gets traded. There is plenty of potential here for another strong season in 2022.
Alvarez’s AL Most Valuable Player odds are as short as +7500 at PointsBet but are +1500 at BetMGM and Caesars.
Ryan Mountcastle (+10000)
Ryan Mountcastle inevitably declined from a rookie year in which his .333 batting average and .386 on-base-percentage were unduly inflated by a .377 BABIP during the pandemic-shortened season. Still, it was surprising to see Mountcastle regress as much as he did. His strikeout percentage ranked in the 14th percentile among qualified hitters, and his walk-rate ranked in only the 25th percentile. Poor plate discipline, atrocious defense, and a lack of consistently solid contact at the plate currently plague the young first baseman. A former 36th overall draft pick, he showcased his tremendous upside with 33 home runs last summer, but there is a long way to go before he asserts himself as a feared hitter.
Cedric Mullins
Cedric Mullins is not currently listed on any market to win the American League MVP, which is …perplexing. Baltimore’s inability and unwillingness to contend in 2022 certainly limits the potential for individual accolades for anyone on this roster. Still, Mullins is coming off of a 30-30 season in which he posted an .878 OPS while playing elite defense in center field. In fact, Mullins finished 9th in MVP voting in 2021. Giving up switch hitting prior to last summer clearly unlocked the potential that the Orioles front office always thought was there for the talented outfielder. Expect another sensation year from him in 2022.
Against left-handed pitching in 2021, Tampa Bay ranked 13th in OPS, 11th in ISO, 28th in strikeout percentage, 8th in walk rate, and 7th in wRC+. Facing right-handed pitching, the Rays ranked 8th in OPS, 5th in ISO, 22nd in strikeout percentage, 5th in walk rate, and 3rd in wRC+.
Ji-Man Choi’s story is best told in two parts. Against right-handed pitching in 2021, he hit 11 home runs and posted an .843 OPS. Against left-handed pitching, he hit zero home runs, struck-out in 38.5 percent of his plate appearances, and turned in an abysmal .526 OPS. Choi is an excellent first base option as the strong side of a platoon, but he is unplayable against southpaws.
Kevin Kiermaier ranked in the 17th percentile or worse last season in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, and whiff-rate. Tampa Bay was just glad that he ranked in the 98th percentile in outs above average at his position in center field. Kiermaier is a below average hitter, and that does not appear to be changing in the near future.
Manuel Margot is the ideal complement to Austin Meadows as a platoon partner in the corner outfield. Margot has a career OPS nearly .100 points higher against southpaws than he does against right-handed pitching. His 99th percentile defense and 87th percentile strikeout percentage are valuable assets that will keep him useful for years to come in Tampa Bay–though probably not in an everyday role.
Similar to Margot, Brett Phillips is an elite defender who lacks the bat skills to fill an everyday role for the Rays. In 292 plate appearances in 2021, Phillips posted a ghastly 38.7 strikeout percentage overall, including a 48.8 strikeout percentage against southpaws. He owned an .870 OPS against right-handed pitching, but an unplayable .372 OPS against southpaws. His role is clearly defined for this organization.