Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview: John Means To Lead The O’s

MLB betting analyst Nick Galaida previews the Baltimore Orioles’ starting rotation and bullpen in this 2022 pitching preview. Claim a $1000 in risk-free bet with our BetMGM before the season starts!

Baltimore Orioles Futures Odds

• Regular Season Wins: Over/Under 61.5 Wins (-110)
• Best Regular Season Record: +100000
• Division Winner: +20000
• To Make the Playoffs: +2500
• American League Winner: +25000
• World Series Champion: +50000

Baltimore Orioles Pitching Preview

John Means (+7000 to win AL Cy Young)

On May 5th, John Means threw a no-hitter, at which point he owned a 1.37 ERA and a 3.06 FIP through seven turns in the rotation. Means was excellent again in his subsequent start against the New York Mets, but then the wheels fell off of the wagon. Across his final 18 trips to the mound, Means posted a 4.94 ERA and a 5.53 FIP. His 20.2 strikeout percentage during that span brought down his season-long number to the 44th percentile, despite a strong start to the campaign. Means has always possessed elite command, but below average fastball velocity and rather ineffective secondary offerings continue to limit his ceiling. In 2021, opposing hitters had a .364 wOBA against his changeup and a .469 wOBA against his slider. He is the de facto ace of the Orioles’ staff once again, but that is not a distinction he would earn with any of the other 29 big league clubs.

Mean’s AL Cy Young odds are +5000 on the DraftKings Sportsbook app, but you can get +7000 odds at PointsBet.

Jordan Lyles

Jordan Lyles has made 39 starts since the beginning of 2020, resulting in a 5.60 ERA and a 5.49 FIP. In 2021, he ranked in the 24th percentile or lower in average exit velocity, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and strikeout percentage. His fastball velocity ranked in the 35th percentile. Surprisingly, Lyles has one of the better sliders in baseball, but a .412 wOBA against his fastball and a .358 wOBA against his curveball more than outweigh his one consistently strong offering. Lyles will continue to eat innings as Baltimore awaits the arrival of some notable pitching prospects, but the expectations from a performance perspective are very minimal.

Bruce Zimmerman

Similar to Lyles, Bruce Zimmerman has one job in 2022–eat innings and try not to embarrass himself too bad in the process. Last year, Zimmerman posted a 5.04 ERA, 6.44 xERA, and a 5.38 FIP in 64.1 innings of big league innings, spanning 13 starts and 14 appearances overall. To his credit, he allowed more than 3 earned runs in a start only twice and never more than 5 earned runs in an outing. Zimmerman ranked in the 22nd percentile or worse in nearly every important pitching metric in 2021, but he nearly always keeps the ballgame within shouting distance by the time he hits the showers. Even if the Orioles could do much better than Zimmerman for a third starter (they absolutely can), they could also do worse. 

Zac Lowther

In 29.2 innings as a rookie, Zac Lowther was about as bad as possible on the mound–posting a 6.67 ERA, 7.58 xERA, and a 5.50 FIP. Lowther’s fastball registered in the 16th percentile, leading to an unsurprising .425 wOBA against that pitch. Lowther utilized a four pitch arsenal to post consistently excellent numbers throughout the minor leagues, but his early returns suggest that his resume might not translate well to baseball’s biggest stage. At 25 years old, there is certainly room to grow, but he is more likely to fall into a role as an innings eater than a future ace of this staff.

Tyler Wells

Tyler Wells is being given the opportunity to earn a spot in the Opening Day rotation, but it could make more long-term sense for the Orioles to make him a permanent member of the arm barn. As a rookie, Wells was serviceable with a 4.11 ERA, 3.63 xERA, and a 3.63 FIP in relief. More encouraging was the 84th percentile strikeout percentage and and the 89th percentile walk-rate. Wells possesses elite spin on his fastball and secondary offerings. His profile as primarily a fastball/slider pitcher seems to fit better in short outings, especially with Grayson Rodriguez, D.L. Hall, and others knocking on the door for their inevitable spot in the rotation.

Bullpen

In 2021, the Orioles bullpen ranked 30th in FIP (4.87), 29th in xFIP (4.76), 28th in strikeout percentage (21.5%), 16th in walk-rate (10.0%), and 29th in WHIP (1.46).

General Manager Mike Elias has been blunt about the fact that Baltimore will not spend money until the team is ready to compete at a high level. Having lost 100 games or more in three of the last four years, the offseason verdict was unsurprising–this roster is still not ready for such money to be spent. As a result, arguably the league’s worst bullpen from 2021 returns all of their pieces, for better and for worse. 

Cole Sulser was good enough to be classified as talented, regardless of where he would have thrown the baseball in 2021. His 3.17 xERA ranked in the 86th percentile in the league, and his 2.98 FIP was 34 percent better than league average. An 80th percentile strikeout percentage forecasts a potential high leverage role for years to come in the Baltimore bullpen. If he can manage to keep his walk-rate under 10 percent, he has the potential to be a talented arm for Manager Brandon Hyde to turn to with a late lead. Tanner Scott’s significant command issues once again kept him from having a better season than he could have posted. In 2020, Scott’s slider held opponents to an incredulous .087 wOBA. However, a 13 percent increase in usage made the offering far more recognizable, and far more hittable. There is a goldilocks zone that he will need to unlock in 2022 if he wants to be known as more than someone with unrealized high upside. Paul Fry was somehow both elite and awful last summer. Per Baseball Prospectus, 75 percent of his outings were of the scoreless variety, but he also tied for the lead league in relief appearances in which he allowed at least three runs. A promising start to the year continued to spiral as fall approached, resulting in his demotion to the minor in late August, following an outing in which he allowed four earned runs in only 0.1 innings. Fry has stuff capable of making him an effective reliever, but a ghastly 16.3 percent walk-rate last year has elicited unavoidable concerns about his production for 2022. There is nothing remarkable about Dillon Tate, but he is a solid middle relief option for Baltimore. In 84.1 innings since the beginning of 2020, Tate owns a 4.16 ERA and a 4.23 FIP–the latter of which is eight percent better than league average in that span. Tate relies heavily on a sinker, which does a great job avoiding the barrel of opposing bats. He ranked in only the 10th percentile in strikeout percentage, but a better infield defense to field weak contact behind him could produce better results than we have seen to this point. On a better team, Tate is likely a better pitcher.

The difference between teams trying to win baseball games and teams content with not winning baseball games is defined by players like Jorge Lopez. Lopez ranked in the 29th percentile or worse in 2021 in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xwOBA, xERA, xBA, xSLG, barrel percentage, strikeout percentage, walk-rate, whiff percentage, chase-rate, and spin rates. Lopez has been worse than league average on the mound in five consecutive seasons. Do not expect that to change in 2022. Cionel Perez has an upper-90s fastball, but not much else in his repertoire. Perez has a decent slider, but his fastball and changeup (comprising 72.0 percent of his total offerings last year) were tattooed. Bryan Baker has thrown one inning at the big league level. His minor league track record does not catch anyone’s attention. Keegan Akin will either be a placeholder as the fifth starter in the rotation or an innings eater in low leverage out of the bullpen. Either way, there is not much upside here for a pitcher who had a 4.42 xERA as a rookie and a 5.30 xERA in his sophomore campaign. Pedestrian strikeout and walk numbers undeniably limit his ceiling.