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Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Will Boston Or Miami Take Control Of ECF?

Derek Farnsworth Wed 5/25 7:16am PT
The Boston Celtics make today's best NBA bets
(Image Credit: Imagn)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his Game 5 prediction for the Heat vs. Celtics on Wednesday, May 25. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

We are finally back on the right track after securing a win on each of the last two slates. The Mavericks have shot more three-pointers than any team in the playoffs and they finally got them to drop in Game 4. This felt like one of the more obvious plays over the last few weeks, as the Mavericks weren’t going to beat the Suns and then get swept by the Warriors. Naturally, Golden State had to feel content about taking a three-game lead and they didn’t put up their best performance. 

As I like to say, more basketball is always good news. However, I would love nothing more than to watch a competitive playoff game. It feels like we haven’t had one in quite some time. Tonight’s game features a close spread, so hopefully the Heat or Celtics won’t jump out to a massive lead like we’ve seen in the first four games of the series. 

Betting My Way Through The NBA Playoffs: Running Totals 

Boston Celtics at Miami Heat: Expert Pick & Prediction

I’m not sure it does much good to look at the statistics from the series, as every game has turned into a blowout with the exception of Game 3 where Jimmy Butler missed the entire second half. This has been one of the strangest series in recent memory, as a handful of players are listed as questionable each night and we don’t know who is going to suit up until an hour before each game. There are seven players listed as questionable for Game 4, but the ones to keep an eye on are Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Kyle Lowry, and Tyler Herro. 

The Celtics were my pick to win before the series started and despite not having home-court advantage, are listed as -175 to win the series. Boston has had a big edge on the glass, they have dished out more assists, and they have shot the ball better than the Heat. The only statistic in Miami’s favor is the turnover rate. While I generally like to bet on home teams in this situation, I have to stick with the Celtics here. They were the best team in the NBA in the second half of the season and they have already been battle-tested in the playoffs. 

Let’s keep the streak going with a Celtics win tonight.