Reaction: Betting and NBA DFS After Harden-Simmons Blockbuster Trade

After days of rumors and speculation, the Philadelphia 76ers and Brooklyn Nets finally agreed on a blockbuster deal ahead of Thursday’s trade deadline. The agreement, headlined by James Harden and Ben Simmons swapping jerseys, will surely alter the betting and daily fantasy sports landscape.

Many analysts and personalities across the industry are split on who “won” the trade, but regardless, there will be many new dynamics regarding these two teams.

Let’s take a look at some various opinions from our RotoGrinders and ScoresAndOdds experts following monster news that could affect the NBA odds landscape in a significant way.

Who Won The Sixers-Nets Trade?

Grant Neiffer: “While both of these teams are drastically better after the trade, the clear winner for me is the Nets. Brooklyn not only got two first round picks and a likely better fit in their offense in Ben Simmons, but they also got Seth Curry and Andre Drummond (who may or may not help). Simmons will fit great with this Nets’ team and Harden will fit great with the 76ers.”

Andy Means: “I definitely won’t be the first person to say this, but I do think that the trade makes sense for both teams.

“With Philly, this is clearly a win-now move considering Joel Embiid is squarely in the prime of his career.  And with his injury history, it’s hard to gauge exactly how long that prime will last.  Harden is clearly on the other side of his prime but probably has a handful of All-NBA caliber type of seasons left in him.  So pairing the two of them together from that perspective does make a lot of sense, and they should be able to work some magic in the pick-and-roll.

“Brooklyn is harder to dissect due to the uncertainty of several of their key pieces.  Does Ben Simmons play right away?  What’s his game looking like these days?  Is Kyrie Irving only going to be playing away games all season?  Is Joe Harris going to return this season?  If you get all of those players at their peak, then this team can win the NBA Championship.  As we sit here, a week before the All Star Break though, there are still a lot of unknowns with this team.”

Allan Lem: “It’s not too surprising that the Nets traded away James Harden, as they’ve been holding him out the last several games due to a mysterious hamstring injury. The bigger shock to me is that the 76ers parted ways with Seth Curry, Andre Drummond and two 1st round draft picks on top of Ben Simmons to get Harden. I’m probably in the minority here, but I like this trade more for the Nets. 

“It was clear things weren’t working out in Brooklyn with a Big 3, and this gives Ben Simmons a fresh start. Simmons has shown he doesn’t need to shoot in order to make an impact, and that’s the perfect role for him alongside Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant (once he’s healthy again). Curry gives the Nets a replacement for the injured Joe Harris, and Andre Drummond provides depth for a Nets center rotation that has used all of Blake Griffin, Nic Claxton and Day’Ron Sharpe at that position.”

Andre Alford: “There are only a few other NBA teams that can beat this Brooklyn team. When healthy, it’s a very scary roster. It depends on Kyrie Irving, he’s still the ultimate determining factor. In my opinion, Brooklyn has turned to the Warriors 2.0 – they don’t run the same system, but they have similar types of players. Shooters, ball handlers, and defenders that can switch at any position.”

Justin Carlucci: “The days of not trading with division rivals are long gone, and we’ve seen the “new normal” across multiple sports now. It’s not a fun answer, but both teams were winners in this deal. It’s likely Harden and Simmons would have never played a game in their prior uniforms in 2023 – might as well make the best of it.

“Embiid is playing the best basketball on the planet, but who knows how long that healthy, prime window really is? I still hold my breath every time he hits the deck. I respect Daryl Morey for going “all in” for Embiid, despite giving up some major assets.

“As for Brooklyn, Simmons still has the ceiling of a top-5 NBA player in the league, if he ever develops any sort of a 12-foot jumper and some tougher skin. Good luck with that New York media. Simmons is arguably a top-5 defender in the league, and if he decides to put a jersey on, certainly helps to keep the Nets as serious title contenders.”

Betting Futures Impact

Neiffer: “While both teams’ NBA futures odds are still offering no real value, I see the biggest drop to be Embiid’s MVP odds. The main reason why he has skyrocketed in the MVP conversation is due to his massive usage over the last month or two, sitting around 40%. With Harden joining, and likely eating up a lot of that usage, I see Nikola Jokic being the much better bet for MVP and the odds on favorite for the time being.”

Means: “Without having looked at how futures odds have changed yet, my initial thought is that this trade does push Philly up the list of contenders just a little bit. With all of that uncertainty with Brooklyn though, it honestly doesn’t move the needle that much to me.  The ceiling for the Nets was way higher before this trade than it is after this trade, in my opinion.

“All that being said, I still like Milwaukee to come out of the East, and Miami is still sitting there quietly just taking care of business all season. I don’t think I can say that Philly or Brooklyn would be overwhelming favorites in a series against Miami, and I definitely think I’d side with Milwaukee still against either of them.”

Updated NBA Title Odds

Alford: “Some people think the 76ers have a better chance to win a title now, but I still don’t think they will win. I also like betting on Milwaukee, Miami, Golden State and Phoenix. Those are the only teams that I can possibly see beating the Nets in a 7-game series, to kind of hedge my Brooklyn futures investments.”

NBA DFS Implications

Neiffer: “Kyrie Irving obviously gets a big bump for NBA DFS without Harden there. Embiid, who is leading the league in usage, will likely come back down to earth slightly – as well as every other secondary piece on the 76ers will likely get a big downgrade.”

Lem: “I’m curious to see how Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and James Harden can co-exist on the Philadelphia side. Perhaps the 76ers have another trade in the works to move Harris, but from a DFS perspective, I’m planning to take a wait-and-see approach on how this benefits Harden or Embiid, if at all. They can co-exist as a strong pick-and-roll duo if they work together, but Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris likely take a hit here.”

Alford: “I don’t think Joel Embiid can be an elite option at a very high price any more. I can’t see him having any ceiling games at this price when he was receiving all of the usage. I’m going to wait for his price to get into the $10K range to start playing him. I am interested to see how Harden plays with Embiid before I start having exposure to him as well.”

Carlucci: The public will likely shy away from Embiid in the near term at his inflated price across major sites, as Harden and his monster usage are expected to cut into his role significantly from a fantasy-out perspective. This makes Embiid a very interesting option and I’m willing to fire him up for some large field tournaments at minimal ownership this week.