Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (4/29/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Friday April 29, 2022!

Sometimes you have to accept the fact that it’s not your day. I hadn’t been feeling great earlier in the week and woke up feeling like I got hit by a ton of bricks. I figured I better go get tested for COVID and sure enough, it was positive. To make matters worse, I had to watch the Jazz blow another double-digit lead in the second half. They had a wide open three to win the game, but the shot didn’t fall. Looking back, I should have played the life hedge and bet on the Mavericks instead. Kids, don’t bet on your favorite team. It’s asking for double heartbreak. 

With the Jazz losing, I needed to go 2-0 in the other two games to have a good night and the Raptors ran into a buzzsaw in the Sixers. Philadelphia showed what they are capable of when they get good performances from their two best players. The Suns were the only team to cover the spread, as they closed out the Pelicans thanks to one of the most efficient games I have ever seen. Chris Paul was a perfect 14-for-14 from the field and dished out eight assists. 

Sadly enough, all three teams with closeout opportunities were able to take advantage of them on Thursday. This means that unless the Wolves win tonight, we won’t get a single Game 7 in the first round. As far as the series bets are concerned, I had bets on the Jazz, Suns, and Raptors. Depending on how tonight goes, we could have a small profit or a small loss heading into the second round. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Memphis Grizzlies at Minnesota Wolves – 9:00 PM ET

Series: MEM 3-2

You could make a strong case that if the Wolves didn’t blow fourth quarter leads, this series would already be over. Instead, they are down 3-2 and now facing elimination. There hasn’t been much separating these teams in terms of the stats. The Wolves have shot the ball a little better, but have not taken care of the ball (highest turnover rate of any team in the playoffs). The Grizzlies have been better on the glass and have a higher assist-to-turnover ratio. 

Do we ride the current trend of road teams ending the series in six games or do we bet on the more volatile team playing at home? This is truly a pick ‘em type of game and the betting market has the Grizzlies listed as 1-point favorites. For me, this game comes down to one player in particular – Karl-Anthony Towns. If he can stay out of foul trouble while staying aggressive on the offensive end of the floor, it will give his team a big enough boost to force a Game 7. 

The play here is to bet the Wolves at +1 before the game and then to wait until they get up by double-digits at some point in the second half. From there, you hammer the live line on the Grizzlies (perhaps you get Memphis +5 or +6 for the game). This hedges your Minnesota bet and gives you a chance to win both bets once the Wolves let the Grizzlies back in the game. 

• ATS Pick: Minnesota +1, FanDuel Sportsbook