Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (5/1/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Saturday, May 1, 2022!

While we didn’t end the first round with a win against the spread, I hope some of you took my advice. I recommended hammering the Grizzlies as soon as the Wolves got up by double-digits in the second half. Sure enough, Minnesota blew their third double-digit fourth quarter lead in the series. They have to be kicking themselves at this point, but there is some give and take with a young team that likes to take chances. Bad shots, turnovers, and runs are all part of the equation. They have a very bright future ahead of them. 

Let’s quickly recap the betting from the first round. The series bets were 6-2 and we hit two props, which led to a solid +2.17 units. Unfortunately, my against the spread picks hit a cold streak there at the end. Overall, we are down 1.83 units heading into the second round. While not ideal, we are still in play to accomplish the long-term goal of securing a profit while having a sweat on every game and every series in the playoffs. 

The second round kicks off with two games on Sunday and two games on Monday. Similar to the first round, I will break down each series, give my pick to win, and give my pick for Game 1. 

Noto’s Playoff Betting Totals

Series Bets: 6-2

Series Props: 2-2

Series Profit/Loss: +2.17

ATS Bets: 20-22

ATS Profit/Loss: -4.0 units

Total Profit/Loss: -1.83 units

Boston Celtics vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Series Preview

The Celtics were bounced from the playoffs by the Bucks three seasons ago, so they would love to return to the favor to the defending champs. These teams ended the regular season with identical records, but the Celtics had the tiebreaker and therefore will have home-court advantage. While this is setting up to be a tremendous series on paper, I thought the same thing of the Celtics and Nets. We all saw how that turned out. 

If we look at the numbers from the regular season, the Bucks were the better team in offensive rating, rebounding rate, and turnover rate. The Celtics were the better team in defensive rating and point differential. However, Boston’s numbers don’t paint the whole picture. They were around .500 in the standings halfway through the season and were a completely different team after that. They became the best defense in basketball and had by far the best net rating of any team in the league after the All-Star break. 

The Bucks were able to beat the Bulls in five games, but I’m not putting too much stock into that series win. As I’ve noted time and time again in this article series, the Bulls had the third worst net rating in the NBA after the All-Star break. They were also missing key players at times in the first round. The Celtics sweeping the Nets was truly impressive. Kevin Durant has had an amazing career and had never been swept in the playoffs until that series. The Celtics are in better health, they are in better form, and they have home-court advantage. They are my pick to win this series. 

It’s hard to bet the Celtics to win the series and then bet against them in Game 1. If they lose this game at home, they’ll have a tough time clawing their way back with two of the next three games in Milwaukee. There’s certainly a chance that the Celtics win this game by less than 4.5 points, but I’m willing to lay them in Game 1. The Bucks are still without Khris Middleton and now the league’s best defense can focus all of their attention on Giannis Antetokounmpo. 

• Series Prediction: Boston 4-3
• Series Bet: Boston -210 (2.1 units)
• Game 1 Pick: ATS: Boston -4.5, Multiple Sportsbooks

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Golden State Warriors

Series Preview

This is probably a bad sign, but the two series starting on Sunday seem a tad too obvious. The Warriors made quick work of the Nuggets in the first round, while the Grizzlies were able to stave off the Wolves thanks to three fourth quarter comebacks. The Warriors have as much playoff experience as any team in the league, while most of the players on the Grizzlies have only played in one or two playoff series. 

If we look at the regular season statistics, they clearly favor the Grizzlies. Memphis ranked higher than Golden State in offensive rating, rebounding rate, turnover rate, and point differential. The Warriors were slightly better on the defensive end of the floor, but not by much. Here’s the thing – Draymond Green missed a ton of time, Klay Thompson missed a ton of time, and Stephen Curry missed a ton of time. 

The one positive for the Grizzlies is that they have home-court advantage, but that’s essentially negated in this series. This streak is unbelievable – the Warriors have won a road game in 24 straight series. And yes, that is the NBA record. The Warriors are not going to blow double-digit fourth quarter leads and good luck beating them in their own building. I love Ja Morant and hope he puts on an absolute show, but it’s not his time yet. 

While picking the Warriors to win the series was easy, they don’t necessarily have to win Game 1 for me to feel good about their chances. With that said, they are more rested and more experienced. Even if they don’t win here, we can feel good about going right back to them in Game 2. As we know, odds are pretty good that they will pick up at least one in Memphis.  

• Series Prediction: Golden State 4-2
• Series Bet: Golden State -265 (2.65 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Golden State -2, PointsBet Sportsbook