Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (5/2/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Monday, May 2, 2022!

Happy Monday everyone! It wasn’t the start to the second round that I was imagining, but there is still plenty of time to get back on track. After dominating the Nets in the first round, the Celtics looked out of sorts against the Khris Middleton-less Bucks at home. Every time Boston made a run, Milwaukee was right there to make one of their own. The defending champions have stolen home-court advantage and are now small favorites (-130) in the series. 

The Warriors got off to a rough start in Game 1 against the Grizzlies. Klay Thompson picked up three fouls before logging 10 minutes of action and Draymond Green was ejected for a flagrant foul on Brandon Clarke. Despite trailing by six at halftime, the Warriors found a way to win the game thanks to an amazing effort from Jordan Poole. How about this trend? Golden State has now won a road game in 25-straight playoff series, which doesn’t seem possible. I had the Warriors in Game 1, but they fell a point shy of covering the spread. This happens often when betting on sports. 

We are now nearly four units in the hole with some serious ground to make up. Everyone loves a good come-back story. We have two games on the docket tonight, so let’s jump right in. 

Noto’s Playoff Betting Totals

• Series Bets: 6-2
• Series Props: 2-2
• Series Profit/Loss: +2.17
• ATS Bets: 20-24
• ATS Profit/Loss: -6.0 units
• Total Profit/Loss: -3.83 units

Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia Sixers

Series Preview

The Sixers were able to escape the first round against the Raptors, but it didn’t come without a cost. Joel Embiid was already dealing with a torn ligament in his thumb and was then elbowed in the face late in Game 6. He suffered a concussion and an orbital fracture and is set to miss at least the first two games of the series. In a strange way, it’s a blessing that the Sixers don’t have home-court advantage in the series. If they lost the first game or two at home, they would have an extremely difficult time fighting their way back into the series. 

Despite dealing with a few injuries, the Heat were able to wrap their series up against the Hawks in five games. They had the second best net rating of any team in the first round and the big story was how they were able to shut down Trae Young. They will obviously face better offensive teams as they progress through the playoffs, but we can expect them to take a very similar approach against James Harden in this series. 

I wasn’t particularly high on the Sixers heading into the playoffs and bet against them in the first round. They’ve shown that at their best they can compete with anyone. They’ve also shown that they’ll have off nights and look like they don’t belong in the playoffs. The Heat are the exact opposite in that they are going to grind out every minute of every game. Miami will open the series without Kyle Lowry, but he’s a lot easier to replace for 35 minutes a game than Joel Embiid. I expect the Heat to get out to a quick 2-0 lead in the series and then we’ll see what happens once the series shifts to Philadelphia. 

• Series Prediction: Miami 4-1
• Series Bet: Miami -350 (3 units) 
• Series Prop: Miami -1.5 Games -140 (1.4 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Miami -7.5, Multiple Sportsbooks

Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks

Series Preview

The Mavericks were the only team to win in the first round that wasn’t favored by the betting market. There tend to be fewer upsets in the NBA playoffs because generally the better team comes out of a seven-game series. Honestly, the Mavericks would have been favored against the Jazz if Luka Doncic’s status wasn’t in doubt before the series started. They were able to pick up two wins in Utah and avoid a winner-take-all Game 7. They did two things particularly well in that series – they defended and they didn’t turn the ball over. 

The Suns got more of a test than many were expecting in the first round, but they were able to beat the Pelicans in six games. They were efficient on offense and they limited turnovers, but they were absolutely dominated on the glass. This would be a concern in most matchups, but the Mavericks were a bad rebounding team in the regular season and had the second worst rebounding rate in the first round. 

Both teams enter the series in full strength, which seems to be a rarity in these playoffs. Devin Booker was able to log 32 minutes in Game 6, so he’s unlikely to be on a strict minute count heading into Game 1 of this series. Ultimately, the Suns were the best team in the NBA during the regular season. They have more depth than the Suns. They have home-court advantage in this series. Their one weakness (rebounding) is also a weakness for Dallas. And on top of all that, we have the narrative that Chris Paul knows his window for winning a championship is closing. 

I expect a dominant performance from the Suns in this series and will be betting them early and often in the individual games. 

• Series Prediction: Phoenix 4-1
• Series Bet: Phoenix -300 (3 units) 
• Series Prop: Phoenix 4-1 +300 (1 unit)
  Series Prop: Phoenix to win Game 1 + win series -155 (1.55 units)
• Game 1 Pick ATS: Phoenix -5.5, Multiple Sportsbooks