Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (5/4/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Wednesday, May 4, 2022!

We are finally back on track after going 4-0 the last two nights. The Celtics picked up a big win at home against the Bucks to tie the series at one game apiece. Even though Marcus Smart was a late scratch, the game wasn’t particularly competitive. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown bounced back after quiet outings in Game 1 and the defense put the clamps down, forcing 16 turnovers and holding Boston to 3-for-18 from the three-point line. 

The Grizzlies were able to build a double-digit lead early in the third quarter, but gave it all up and were trailing early in the fourth quarter. It sounds strange given the fact that they were playing against Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, but the Grizzlies had the best closer on the floor in Ja Morant. It was a big win for the city of Memphis and while I still love the Warriors in this series, I’m glad that we aren’t looking at a potential sweep. If it were up to me, every series would go seven games because I can’t get enough of playoff basketball.  

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Philadelphia Sixers at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Series: Miami 1-0

There weren’t any real surprises in Game 1. The Heat jumped out to an early lead and it felt like the Sixers expended all of their energy to stage a comeback in the second quarter. Once the third quarter started, Miami looked to be in full control. The Heat committed fewer turnovers, they dominated the glass, and they held the Sixers to 6-for-34 from the three-point line. 

The big question heading into Game 2 is what will change for the Sixers? Honestly, I’m not sure they have much of an option to change their offensive or defensive schemes at this point. Joel Embiid is their rim protector and clearly their best player on the offensive end of the floor. There’s a chance he returns for Game 3, but he’s already been ruled out of tonight’s game. The Sixers will need more from James Harden and from the supporting cast to be competitive tonight. 

For the Heat, we can expect more of the same. They were tremendous in the first round and made life really difficult on Trae Young. They continued that in Game 1 against James Harden, who was 5-for-13 from the floor with five turnovers. Kyle Lowry is still out, but Gabe Vincent has done a nice job filling in as the spot starter and the Heat have plenty of players that can contribute off the bench. While I don’t love this spread, I am going back to the Heat in Game 2.  

• ATS Pick: Miami -8, FanDuel

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 PM ET

Series: Phoenix 1-0

The Mavericks made a huge push in the last three minutes of Game 1 and nearly covered the 5.5-point spread. It’s funny how often bettors end up having to sweat meaningless shots at the end of games. Ultimately, the Suns were able to walk away with a win in a game that they had full control of the entire time. 

The Mavericks had much of the same game-plan that they employed in the first round against the Jazz. They let Luka Doncic create plays and create open three-pointers for his teammates. Dallas made six three-pointers in the game and committed only eight turnovers. This is even more impressive when you consider the fact that they had four turnovers in the first three minutes of the game. As I said at the start of the series, I’m not sure how long a team can bank on efficiency from the three-point line and an unsustainable turnover rate. 

The Suns cooled off a bit in the fourth quarter, but were shooting upwards of 65% from the field at one point in the second half. They have so many weapons and unlike the Jazz, they can punish the Mavericks inside when Dallas plays their small lineup. Devin Booker is locked in, Chris Paul has his sights set on the NBA Finals, and Deandre Ayton is playing some of the best basketball of his career. I’m all in on this Suns team and could see them running away with Game 2. 

• ATS Pick: Phoenix -6, DraftKings