Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (5/6/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Friday, May 6, 2022! Noto’s last eight Premium Picks parlays are 8-0, +12.49 units!

After a rough start to the second round, we have rattled off six wins against the spread in a row. We are back in the green for the playoffs and after no NBA games on Thursday, I am chomping at the bit for the games to start on Friday night. To quickly recap Wednesday night, we saw more of the same from the Heat and the Suns. The Heat were too much for the Joel Embiid-less Sixers and the Suns put together one of the best fourth quarters I have seen in quite some time to blowout the Mavericks. 

I had to do a double-take when I saw the schedule for Friday. I naturally figured the teams that played on Tuesday would play on Friday, but they will have four full days in-between games while the teams that played on Wednesday will be back at it after only two days. I’m sure there’s an explanation for this, but I didn’t have the effort to do any digging. We have more important matters at hand – we have to keep this hot streak going.

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Miami Heat at Philadelphia Sixers – 7:00 PM ET

Series: MIA 2-0

You know when someone has to deliver some unpleasant news and they tell the person, “Well, I have some good news and some bad news?” When it comes to fans of the Sixers, I have some bad news and I have some more bad news. The team has been thoroughly out-played in the first two games and while they get to return home for Game 3, Joel Embiid is not expected to play. At this point, he might not see the floor the entire series if the Sixers can’t find a way to win on Friday night. 

The Heat have to feel good about where they sit in the series. The offense has been firing on all cylinders, the defense has made it tough on James Harden and company, and the team has had a massive edge on the glass. There really haven’t been many positives for the Sixers outside of their low turnover rate and the play from Tobias Harris. 

This is usually the spot in the series where I like to switch it up and bet on the home team. While I do expect the Sixers to give everything they have to win this game, the Heat have a golden opportunity to kick a team while it’s down. Philadelphia didn’t have a great home-court advantage during the regular season and Miami had one of the best road records in the league. Once again, they are better on both ends of the floor, they have more depth, they are healthier, and they have the better closer in Jimmy Butler.  

• ATS Pick: Miami -3, PointsBet

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks – 9:30 PM ET

Series: PHO 2-0

During the regular season, the Jazz were the highest scoring team in the league. In the first round, the Mavericks held them to 99 points per game. This is a very good defensive team that we are talking about. In the first two games of the second round, the Suns’ offense has sliced through this defense like a hot knife through butter. My grandma would never read this article, but I feel like she would be proud of me for using that reference. The Suns shot 65% from the field in Game 2 and have an offensive rating of 132.3 in the series. It’s remarkable. 

If you are a fan of the Mavericks, you have to feel a bit defeated at this point. Luka Doncic has had two incredible games, the team has made 33 three-pointers, and the team has only committed 22 turnovers. They are essentially getting 90th percentile outcomes from their offense and have lost the first two games by a total of 27 points. 

With all of that said, I have a lot more faith in the Mavericks fighting back and making this a series than I do in the Sixers. The Suns have gotten a ton of production from their supporting cast in the first two games, while the Mavericks haven’t gotten much from Jalen Brunson, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Spencer Dinwiddie. Mark Cuban will have the home crowd rocking for Game 3 and we can naturally expect better performances from everyone not-named Luka. I still like the Suns in five or six games, but I’ll take the Mavericks in this one. 

• ATS Pick: Dallas +1, DraftKings