Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (5/8/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Sunday, May 8, 2022. Use our Caesars promo code for $1100 in free bet insurance!

There are good and bad breaks when betting on sports. Yesterday was one of the good breaks. The Celtics were down three with about 20 seconds to play. Marcus Smart was fouled and split the free throws. The rebound on the second came back to the Celtics. They had a few chances to tie it up, but couldn’t get any of their shots to fall. Any of those rebounds go to the Bucks and we lose the bet. Instead, we get a push on the +2 spread. 

As I’ve noted a few times in this article series, I don’t see anyone beating the Warriors at home in the playoffs. When they get on a run in front of their home crowd, they are unstoppable. They are firing on all cylinders and arguably have four of the best five players in the series. I hope a few of you bet on the alternate spreads of the Warriors, as they ended up winning by 30 points. Add a win and a tie to the books and let’s gear up for Sunday’s NBA playoff slate. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Today

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks – 3:30 PM ET

Series: PHO 2-1

The Mavericks needed a win in Game 3 to have a chance in the series and they got a huge win in their series home opener. We saw tremendous performances from the supporting cast and Luka Doncic had his usual great game. The strategy of shooting three-pointers and taking care of the ball works wonders when the other team isn’t putting up franchise-record setting performances on the offensive end of the floor. 

I think we can all agree that the officiating in Game 4 needs to be better. The number of bad calls on both sides made the last game chippy between the players. There has been no shortage of trash talk in this series and again, it’s easier for role players to play well at home in front of their own crowd. It’ll be tough for the Suns to beat the Mavericks if Dallas can get similar performances from Jalen Brunson, Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, and Dorian Finney-Smith as they did in Game 4. 

This is a game where I don’t have a strong lean one way or another. In these situations, I generally side with the home team. The Mavericks have a little momentum on their side, they should feel much better about their defensive schemes after finally slowing down the Suns on Friday night. I still love the Suns in this series, but am siding with the Mavericks today. 

• ATS Pick: Dallas +2.5, FanDuel

Miami Heat at Philadelphia Sixers – 8:00 PM ET

Series: MIA 2-1

It turns out teams are much better when they have their best player on the floor. After looking like they didn’t belong in the first two games of the series, the Sixers bounced back with a big win at home in Game 3. They now have a chance to tie it up with a win tonight. You can easily see how much Joel Embiid means from a betting standpoint, as the Sixers opened as 3-point underdogs for Game 3 (when Embiid was expected out) and have opened as 2-point favorites for Game 4. 

Looking at the box score from Friday, the Heat played about as bad as they could have. They shot 35% from the field, they shot 23% from the three-point line, and they were out-rebounded for the first time in the series. The Sixers were terrific from the three-point line (49%) and the free-throw line (86%), so it’ll be interesting to see if they take a step backward offensively. As we saw with the Suns, it’s hard to sustain that level of shooting game-to-game. 

While I worry about Miami’s role players in this one, I expect better outings from JImmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Kyle Lowry. The Sixers have been a team that I have gotten wrong more often than not during the playoffs, but I’m betting against them again today. 

• ATS Pick: Miami +2, DraftKings