Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks & Predictions (5/13/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the Sixers vs. Heat and Mavs vs. Suns on Friday, May 13, 2022. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo for a $1000 free bet!

It’s Friday the 13th, so we should expect some craziness in the association tonight. We are coming off of a breakeven night of betting against the spread, as only one of the home teams was able to force a Game 7. 

The Sixers looked fine in the first half of Game 6, but a lack of team chemistry ultimately ended their playoff run. Players were arguing on the floor in the second half and then Joel Embiid decided to take shots at James Harden in the postgame conference. It will be an interesting offseason for Philly fans. While we missed the against the spread bet, we did cash the Heat series bet and the Heat -1.5 games series bet.  

There has been no love lost between the Suns and Mavericks in this series. Play has been chippy and players from both sides have not been afraid to let the other team know how they feel. I have loved every minute of it and am excited for the winner-take-all Game 7. Chris Paul continues to struggle in the series, but the home team has won (and has covered the spread) in each of the first six games. Believe it or not, we have yet to miss a pick in this series. 

Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks Picks And Predictions

Series: MIL 3-2

The Celtics don’t have a lot of time to dust themselves off after blowing a fourth quarter lead in Game 5. They have to suit back up tonight and try to stave off elimination against the defending champions. While fans have to be disappointed with the way that game ended, the Celtics are still right in this series. They have already won a game in Milwaukee in this series and if they can do it again, they’ll force a winner-take-all Game 7. 

I’m torn on what to do with this game. I bet the Celtics before the series started and I am always rooting for Game 7, but I also have the opportunity to hedge that series bet and limit the potential losses by going with the Bucks. The worst case scenario would be betting on Milwaukee and having them win by one point. This would lose the series bet and the spread bet. I will note that if you like Boston tonight, you might want to look at betting on them to win the series at +200. It would give you a sweat for Game 7 and would provide better odds than betting on Games 6 and 7 individually (if we assume Boston will be a 5-point favorite at home). 

My mind is telling me to bet on Milwaukee to help soften the blow on the series bet, but a wise man once said, “scared money don’t make money.” If I bet on Milwaukee, I would have conflicting rooting interests and the fun of betting is to have a rooting interest. I’m trusting my gut on this one and will be betting the Celtics to force a Game 7. 

• ATS: Pick: Boston +1.5, BetMGM

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors Picks And Predictions

Series: GSW 3-2

Golden State fans can’t be too comfortable right now. I thought the team played as poorly as they could have in Game 4, but they clearly wanted to prove me wrong in Game 5. That was one of the worst postseason performances that I have seen in a very long time. This is a team that has won three championships together and they are facing a team that is without their best player. It’s certainly a surprise to see them lack focus and execution at this stage of the season. 

The Grizzlies have to feel like they are playing with house money at this point. They nearly pulled off the upset in Game 4 and then put on a clinic in Game 5 at home. A win tonight and they will force a Game 7 in their own building. How wild would that environment be? For tonight’s game, Steve Kerr is unlikely to coach, Otto Porter is questionable (after being ruled out at one point yesterday), and Ja Morant is out. 

While I expect the Warriors to end the series tonight, there are certainly some red flags. They have struggled on both ends of the floor with Mike Brown as the coach. On top of that, they need to win tonight’s game by more than eight points to cover the spread. At the same time, home-court advantage means a lot in the playoffs and eventually the Grizzlies are going to feel the absence of Morant. I’m going with the home team here, but certainly don’t have a lot of conviction in the Warriors right now. 

• ATS Pick: Golden State -8, DraftKings