Betting The NBA Playoffs: Picks, Odds and Predictions For Today (4/22/22)

ScoresAndOdds betting expert Derek Farnsworth provides in-depth analysis and best bets for the NBA playoffs! Be sure to check out all of our FREE articles under our news section.

First of all, I want to wish everyone a happy Friday. I for one am hoping for a much better night of betting than I had last night. The Wolves were in complete control of their game in the first quarter and then again in the third quarter. Unfortunately, they forgot to show up for the other two quarters and ended up losing to the Grizzlies. As a bettor, it wasn’t fun watching the Wolves get out-scored by 25 points in the fourth quarter.  

Speaking of not showing up, the Jazz must have had the wrong starting time listed on their schedule. It looked like they were playing a different sport in the first half. They eventually made a run, but it wasn’t enough to win the game, let alone cover the spread. And to cap off the night, the Nuggets couldn’t get it done at home against the Nuggets. The worst case scenario was going 0-for-3 and that’s what happened. We have some work to do. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Friday

Miami Heat at Atlanta Hawks (Series: MIA 2-0)

It’s been easy sledding for the Heat in the first two games of the series. They won each game by double-digits and have been dominant on both ends of the floor. I typically try to find a trend or two that makes a case for the losing team, but there’s nothing to be found through the first two games. The series now shifts to Atlanta, where the Hawks will look to get back on track. The game features a 1-point spread, so we should expect a much closer game this evening.  

One of the biggest issues for the Hawks has been their inability to take care of the basketball. They finished the regular season with the lowest turnover rate in the NBA, but they currently have the highest turnover rate in the playoffs. The Heat have an elite defense, but there’s no excuse for turning the ball over once every five possessions. The Hawks were terrific at home (27-14) during the regular season, but will still be without their starting center in Clint Capela. 

The Heat aren’t exactly the model of health at the moment, as Bam Adebayo, Caleb Martin, and P.J. Tucker are all dealing with injuries. The key player of the three is obviously Adebayo and the Heat will likely need more from him on the road than they did at home. Outside of that, there really aren’t any concerns with Miami. Jimmy Butler has looked as good as ever, their defense has been suffocating, and their supporting cast has played well. 

I hate to put the outcome of the game on a single player, but the Hawks need Trae Young to play like he did during the regular season. He has committed 16 turnovers and has only scored 33 points in the first two games of the series. The Hawks will pull out all of the stops to get this win, as they obviously won’t be able to beat the Heat four straight times. There’s not a lot that I can point to as reasoning to bet the Hawks, but they should naturally play better at home. 

• PICK: Atlanta +1.5, DraftKings

Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls (Series: TIED 1-1)

It takes a brave man to admit when he was wrong. And I am that brave man. 

If you aren’t a fan of The Office, I’m not sure that we can be friends. I’ve been wrong about plenty in the playoffs, but Game 2 in this series might take the cake. I was far too confident in the Bucks after they won Game 1 with their C- game. Unfortunately, the Bulls showed up with their A- game and the Bucks didn’t improve in the slightest since Game 1. 

This is not me trying to devalue the Bulls’ win; they deserve all the credit in the world for getting the split against the defending champions. The question is whether they can keep the momentum going in Game 3. The Bulls were very good at home during the regular season (24-17) and got solid production from all five of their starters on Wednesday. The move to Patrick Williams over Javonte Williams really paid dividends in Game 2. 

I’m sure the Bucks didn’t write off the Bulls completely before the series started, but perhaps they had their attention focused on who they would face in the second round. All of a sudden, they have lost home-court advantage and will now be without one of their best players in Khris Middleton. They have already been without their veteran backup point guard in George Hill. Depth and form are serious concerns heading into Game 3. 

The Bucks are only favored by 2.5 points, which is a wild swing from the 10-point spreads that we saw in the first two games. The market is essentially giving the Bulls 4-to-5 points for playing at home and then 2-to-3 for Middleton being out. If I loved the Bucks at -10 two nights ago, I shouldn’t overreact that much heading into the next game. I find myself wanting to cheer for the Bulls, but my money will be on the Bucks. 

• PICK: Milwaukee -2.5, FanDuel

Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans (Series: TIED 1-1)

While I was happy to take the 10 points from the Pelicans in Game 2, I was not expecting them to go on the road and beat the best team in the NBA. I won’t go as far as saying the Pelicans are live to win this series, but they are certainly more of a threat than they were two days ago. With home-court advantage and with Devin Booker expected to miss the rest of the series, this Cinderalla team needs to start preparing for the ball. 

The Pelicans should feel battle-tested at this point. They picked up a couple of big wins against the Lakers down the stretch of the regular season to stamp their way into the play-in tournament and then they rattled off wins against the Spurs and Clippers to sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed. They lack depth, but they have three All Star-caliber players and could get much better production from their supporting cast at home. 

Chris Paul has to feel like the basketball gods are against him. He’s had so many bad breaks in the playoffs and now he’ll have to beat the Pelicans without Booker at his side. Now, we should keep in mind that the Suns are still -255 to win this series. The Suns have two excellent players to use off the bench in Cam Payne and Cam Johnson, so I expect them to weather the storm while Booker is out. 

This is a difficult one, because I have a soft spot for the Pelicans, and I have a soft spot for teams playing their home opener in the playoffs. The strategy didn’t pay off last night, but I’m going with another home underdog and betting the Pelicans. 

• PICK: New Orleans +1.5, BetMGM