Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (4/26/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Tuesday, April 26, 2022!

There are always surprises in the NBA playoffs, but I was not expecting the outcomes of the three games last night. I was a tad worried about the motivation of the Nets after falling behind 0-3 to the Celtics, but figured they had enough fight in them to pick up at least one win. 

I was wrong. 

The Sixers were in prime position to close out their series against the short-handed Raptors and ended up getting blown out at home. I not only needed the Sixers to win, but to cover a 7-point spread. 

I was wrong, but at least the series was extended, and we get to look forward to Game 6.  

To cap off the night, I thoroughly enjoyed watching my favorite team get torched by Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. As they say in Ted Lasso, “it’s the hope that kills you.” This is why I love being a Jaguars fan in the NFL. I never have to worry about getting my hopes up. 

It wasn’t a complete losing night though, as we won our first series bet and had the Mavericks to cover the 3-point spread. Onward and upward. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Tuesday

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:00 PM ET

Series: MIA 3-1

The Hawks had a decent lead in the second quarter of Game 4 and were tied with the Heat with six minutes to play in the first half. From that point on, they were outscored by 24 points. They only managed to score 60 points in the last three quarters combined. They are now down three games to one in the series and face elimination in Game 5 in Miami. 

The issues with the Hawks have been fairly obvious – they have had the third highest turnover rate of any team in the playoffs and they have gotten very little from their star point guard. In the first four games of the series, he has averaged 16 points and 6 assists. He has only shot 35% from the floor and has committed 24 turnovers. For Atlanta to stave off elimination, they will need Young to have his best game of the series. 

The Heat have to be happy with their play in the first four games of the series. Young has certainly struggled, but a lot of the credit should go to Miami’s defense. Despite having injuries to three of their starters, the Heat have the best net rating of any team in the playoffs. They were dominant at home in the regular season and they were dominant in the first two games of the series. I figured we would get an eight or nine-point spread, so I’m happy to bet the seven.

• ATS Pick: Miami -7, FanDuel Sportsbook

Minnesota Wolves at Memphis Grizzlies – 7:30 PM ET

Series: TIED 2-2

The Wolves blew a big lead in Game 3, but learned from their mistakes. They were able to take care of business in Game 4 thanks to much-improved play from Karl-Anthony Towns and the team as a whole shooting 50% from the three-point line. The Grizzlies certainly made a game of it, but the Wolves managed to hold on late. It was a much-needed bounce-back effort from this young team. 

The Grizzlies can’t be too upset with where they sit at the moment, as they still have home-court advantage in what is now a three-game series. If we look at the raw stats from the first four games, Memphis has had the edge on offense, on defense, on the glass, and in the assist-to-turnover category. They have all of the pieces needed to advance out of the first round and they should be able to bank on their playoff experience from last year. 

One of my biggest flaws as a bettor is constantly trusting the home team. I have tried to bet more road teams in this article, but I’m leaning to the Grizzlies in this one. The Wolves already stole one game in Memphis and I don’t see them doing it again. Ja Morant has plenty of room for improvement on the efficiency end and I think we see his best performance of the series. I honestly like the idea of looking at alternate lines (Memphis by 10+ points), but I’ll take them to cover the six for the purposes of this article. 

• ATS Pick: Memphis -6, Multiple Sportsbooks

New Orleans Pelicans at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 PM ET

Series: TIED 2-2

This is the series that I have gotten right more often than not through the first four supporgames. It means absolutely nothing when it comes to handicapping Game 5, but at least I have some conviction with this pick. The Pelicans have been a fun team to watch. They won two games in the play-in tournament and have come out and beaten the best team in basketball two times already this series. The two biggest take-aways from the stats so far are that the Pelicans are dominating the glass and that the Suns have taken much better care of the ball. 

Chris Paul has to be thinking to himself that he’s not going to let another injury take him out of the first round of the playoffs. Sure, he made it to the NBA Finals last season, but he’s had far too many short trips to the postseason. He knows his window for winning his first championship is closing. I’m not sure the added pressure makes the Suns any better or worse, but it’s a fun story to watch unfold. 

Here’s how I see Game 5 playing out – the Suns get much better production from their supporting cast and build a big lead early. Keep in mind that Devin Booker was hurt in Game 2, so this will be the first game back at home since losing him to injury. The Suns’ crowd will serve as the sixth man and bring some much-needed energy to this lineup. 

• ATS Pick: Phoenix -6.5, FanDuel Sportsbook

To sum it up, I’m betting all the favorites and all the home teams. Apparently, I have yet to learn my lesson.