Betting The NBA Playoffs: Expert Picks, Odds and Predictions (4/27/22)

ScoresAndOdds NBA betting expert Derek Farnsworth breaks down his best bets for the NBA playoffs on Wednesday, April 27, 2022!

When I decided to bet on every single game in the playoffs, I was worried that I would end up with a record close to .500 and slowly lose to the vig. We are still very early in our venture, but that’s been the case thus far. While all three home teams ended up winning on Tuesday, only one ended up covering the spread. The Heat were in control of their Game 5 the whole way, but ended up getting outscored by eight in the fourth quarter and only won the game by three points. 

The Grizzlies were extremely lucky to walk away with a win, as they mounted yet another furious fourth quarter comeback. Ja Morant had one of the best dunks of the season and hit the game-winner. There are few players in the NBA that I would rather watch at the moment. And finally, the Suns got off to a hot start early and never took their foot off the gas. You could tell Chris Paul was not going to let his team lose and have to face elimination in Game 6. 

The bets were 1-2 against the spread last night, but we did cash the Heat series bet. The icing on the cake was the prediction of it being over in five games. Unfortunately, I didn’t put my money where my mouth was on that one. We are back at it on Wednesday with two potential closeout games on the schedule. 

Free NBA Betting Picks For Wednesday

Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks – 7:30 PM ET

Series: MIL 3-1

The Bucks played their C- game in the series opener and walked away with a win. Somehow, they managed to play even worse in Game 2 and were beaten by the Bulls at home. In that same game, Khris Middleton was injured and essentially ruled out for the rest of the series. This led to many thinking the Bull had a realistic shot in the series. I kept harkening back to the fact that since the All-Star break, the Bulls had the third worst net rating in the NBA. They went from being one of the top seeds in the Eastern Conference to barely evading the play-in tournament. 

The Bucks responded in a big way in Games 3 and 4 and took a commanding 3-1 lead in the series. They now have a chance to close out the Bulls at home in Game 5. It’s gone from bad to worse for Chicago, as Zach Lavine has entered the league’s health and safety protocols and is unlikely to play on Wednesday. On top of that, Alex Caruso suffered a concussion in Game 4 and didn’t make the trip to Milwaukee with the team. Both players have yet to be ruled out, but they are looking closer to doubtful at this point. 

Even if those two were able to suit up, this game has the makings of a rout. I know I said that prior to Game 2, but at least we got the Bucks to cover the spread in the next two games. If we look at the stats, the Bulls are dead last in net rating of the 16 playoff teams and are getting crushed on the boards in this series. The problem is that we have a 12-point spread on our hands. This brings a lot of different scenarios into play. Even if the Bucks get up by 20, the Bulls will likely keep their starters in until late in the game since they will fight until the buzzer. 

I fully expect the Bucks to win this game handily, but 12 points is a lot. If you can’t tell, I’m waffling a bit on this pick. You know what, I’ve bet the Bucks in every game this series. There’s no point in stopping now. 

• ATS Pick: Milwaukee -12, DraftKings Sportsbook

Denver Nuggets at Golden State Warriors – 10:00 PM ET

Series: GSW 3-1

The Nuggets lost the first three games of the series, but put up a good fight in Game 3. Unlike the Nets, they came out in Game 4 with something to prove. They played well all game and survived a late charge by the Warriors to extend the series. While that win just prolonged the inevitable, I love seeing teams fight for wins in the playoffs.

I’ll keep my analysis of this game short and simple. The Warriors are close to unbeatable at home, they dominated the first two games, and Stephen Curry is back to playing his usual allotment of minutes. The Nuggets have out-rebounded the Warriors, but Golden State has been better in basically every other stat category. 

This is a similar situation to the first game in that a 9-point is a lot for a closeout game. The Nuggets will keep their starters in even if they are down 15+ points in the fourth quarter. However, betting the Warriors at home is something I do as often as possible. 

• ATS Pick: Golden State -8.5, Multiple Sportsbooks

Once again, I am betting on two home favorites. May Lady Luck be on my side.