Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB Pick and Prediction — Tuesday, May 10

MLB expert Nick Galaida breaks down Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees picks and predictions for today — Tuesday, May 10. Make sure to use our BetMGM promo code to get a $1000 risk-free bet.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

On Tuesday, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will begin a brief, two-game series at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx. Entering play, the Yankees sit in first place in the American League East standings, four games ahead of the third-place, Blue Jays. This evening, Toronto will send Yusei Kikuchi to the mound, who will be opposed by Luis Severino. Oddsmakers anticipate New York emerging victorious in this one, pricing them as -180 favorites on the moneyline.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where bettors can find value at sportsbooks for this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays

In his brief four-year MLB career, Yusei Kikuchi owns a 4.94 ERA and a 4.97 FIP. His struggles have continued in his first season with the Blue Jays, with a 4.35 ERA, 5.27 xERA, and a 5.69 FIP. He ranks in only the 9th percentile in average exit velocity, 13th percentile in hard-hit percentage, 18th percentile in xwOBA, 43rd percentile in strikeout percentage, and the 8th percentile in walk-rate. Opposing hitters have a .521 wOBA against his cutter and a .485 wOBA against his slider, two pitches that comprise 41.4 percent of his offerings so far in 2022. Though Kikuchi managed to hold the Yankees to one run across six innings in his most recent outing, bettors would be wise to proceed with extreme caution if considering purchasing stock in the Toronto southpaw tonight.

Teoscar Hernandez returned to the Blue Jays lineup over the weekend–a much needed boost for an offense that ranks only 23rd in OPS and 21st in ISO across the last 14 days. From April 8th to April 13th with Hernadez in the lineup, the Blue Jays ranked 7th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 6th in average exit velocity, and 7th in hard-hit percentage. 

Following an off-day on Monday, Toronto’s arm barn is extremely rested. Yimi Garcia, Tim Mayza, and Adam Cimber each threw on Sunday, but the entire rest of this unit has not appeared in a game since at least Saturday. Everyone should be available for this group tonight.

New York Yankees

From the beginning of 2019 to the conclusion of 2021, Luis Severino totaled only 18.0 innings of work on the mound. Through five turns in the rotation in 2022, Severino has already compiled 24.0 innings of work–posting a 3.75 ERA, 2.87 xERA, and a 3.79 FIP. He ranks in the 90th percentile in average exit velocity, 63rd percentile in hard-hit percentage, and the 75th percentile in xERA. When Severino faced the Blue Jays on April 14th, he held them scoreless across five frames. The return of Hernandez to the lineup makes this a more difficult matchup than the first time he faced this offense, but Severino still has the tools to have a strong outing in this one.

New York has been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball recently, ranking 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 6th in walk-rate, 10th in strikeout percentage, 1st in average exit velocity, and 1st in hard-hit percentage across the last two weeks. Against left-handed pitching in 2022, the Yankees rank 3rd in OPS, 1st in ISO, and 2nd in hard-hit percentage. This lineup is capable of doing a lot of damage on Tuesday.

Clay Holmes and Aroldis Chapman were the only two members of this bullpen to appear in yesterday’s victory over the Texas Rangers. Back-to-back postponed games on Friday and Saturday mean that no member of this unit has thrown more than once in the last four days. Manager Aaron Boone should have no restrictions with any of his high-leverage arms today.

Free Blue Jays-Yankees Pick and Prediction

At first pitch in this one, the temperature is forecasted to be only 63 degrees, with a strong wind blowing in towards home plate. However, there is still plenty of potential for runs to be scored in this one. Kikuchi has struggled mightily against right-handed bats throughout his career to the tune of a 5.17 FIP and a 1.52 WHIP. New York might not need to hit home runs to put runs on the board in this one. Take the New York team total to go over in this spot, despite the pitcher-friendly playing conditions.

• PICK: Yankees Team Total Over 4 runs (-110)