Blue Jays vs. Yankees MLB Pick and Prediction — Wednesday, May 11

MLB betting expert Nick Galaida breaks down Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees picks and predictions for today — Wednesday, May 11. Make sure to use our Points promo code to get $2000 in free bets.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds

On Wednesday, the Toronto Blue Jays and New York Yankees will conclude a brief, two-game series at Yankee Stadium in The Bronx. Entering play, the Yankees sit in first place in the American League East standings, five games ahead of the third-place, Blue Jays. In yesterday’s affair, Aaron Judge connected on a three-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the 9th inning to give New York the win. This afternoon, Toronto will send Jose Berrios to the mound, who will be opposed by Jameson Taillon. Oddsmakers anticipate New York emerging victorious in this one, pricing them as -152 favorites on the moneyline.

Toronto Blue Jays

Jose Berrios has not experienced a strong beginning to the 2022 campaign, with a 5.34 ERA, 7.69 xERA, and a 5.21 FIP through his first six turns in the rotation. However, Berrios’ path to these unsightly numbers has been far from linear, evident by his 1.93 ERA and 2.97 FIP in a three-start span from April 20th to April 30th against the Boston Red Sox (twice) and the Houston Astros. Still, Berrios is not generating much weak contact, and he ranks in only the 11th percentile in strikeout percentage and the 13th percentile in whiff-rate entering action today. Curiously, Berrios has increased his fastball usage by nearly 10 percent compared to 2021, which is odd considering that opposing hitters had a .371 wOBA against the pitch last year–making it his most hittable offering, by far. Assuming a similar pitch usage to what we have seen so far in 2022, Berrios could be in for another rough outing in this one against a dangerous New York lineup.

Entering play yesterday, the Blue Jays’ offense ranked only 23rd in OPS and 21st in ISO across the last two weeks of action. Fortunately for Toronto fans, Teoscar Hernandez returned to the Blue Jays lineup over the weekend, which has helped spark this lineup. From April 8th to April 13th with Hernadez in the lineup, the Blue Jays ranked 7th in OPS, 3rd in ISO, 6th in average exit velocity, and 7th in hard-hit percentage. Bettors should expect far more offensive production from this group moving forward.

New York Yankees

Following the All-Star break in 2021, Jameson Taillon posted a 3.50 ERA and a 4.13 FIP in 12 turns through the rotation. Taillon has carried that positive momentum in 2022, delivering a 2.84 ERA, 2.85 xERA, and a 3.32 FIP in his first 25.1 innings of work this season. Though Taillon is not the most overpowering presence on the mound, his 97th percentile walk-rate has helped him to limit traffic on the basepaths, and thus, limit damage done by opposing offenses. There is some concern here for a pitcher who just pitched against the Blue Jays eight days ago, but Taillon still figures to have a strong outing in this matchup.

Despite being on no-hit watch for the first five innings of yesterday’s contest, the Yankees still managed to score six runs in a winning effort. New York has been one of the hottest hitting teams in baseball recently, ranking 3rd in OPS, 2nd in ISO, 6th in walk-rate, 10th in strikeout percentage, 1st in average exit velocity, and 1st in hard-hit percentage across the last two weeks. Against right-handed pitching in 2022, the Yankees rank 9th in OPS, 15th in ISO, 5th in walk percentage, 10th in strikeout percentage, and 4th in hard-hit percentage. This lineup is capable of doing a lot of damage again on Wednesday.

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At first pitch in this one, the temperature is forecasted to be only 61 degrees, with a substantial wind blowing in towards the first base dugout. In day games since the beginning of 2019, only four ballparks have generated fewer offensive production than Yankee Stadium. Still, Berrios has been struggling mightily on the mound in 2022, which should give New York a number of scoring opportunities in the early portion of this game. Take the over on their first five team total–a play that has been extremely profitable for bettors so far this season.

• PICK: Yankees Team Total Over 1.5 Runs – First Five Innings (-140)